No Runny Eggs

You’ve all heard about climategate.  A few emails get leaked and the entire basis for global warming comes to a scientific crash because the data had all been rigged to produce the results that those who controlled the data wanted.

I’ve been puzzled for some time as to how Placebocare could be anywhere near deficit neutral even after taking into account that revenues start well before benefits and CBO reported increases in insurance costs, particularly for younger people.  Previously, I had shared studies done by various health industry groups that showed dramatic increases in insurance costs under any of the iterations of Placebocare.  It always appeared to me that the CBO’s numbers weren’t reconciling with what the industry was saying, even at a macro level.  I had always thought the answer lied in me not being smart enough to see the differences in how things were analyzed.  However, with some new information I now believe that I couldn’t see why because the “why” wasn’t there.

Cato institute has uncovered what could do to Placebocare, what the leaked emails did to global warming.  Just read this post and see if you don’t agree:

I actually saw my headline on a post over at Politico.  It struck a chord with me.  With all of the Christmas Carols that were being rewritten for Tiger Woods i.e. “I’m dreaming of a white mistress,” I hadn’t heard any that had been written for Placebocare.  I decided to rectify that oversight.

Without further ado, my contribution, perhaps the start, of Christmas Carols about Placebocare:

Sung to the tune of “What Child is This?”

What Bill Is This? 

What bill is this, that sits at rest
On Harry’s desk while debating?
Who Joe and Ben would love to pass
But can’t find the terms that ally them!

Chorus:
This, this is Obamacare,
Whom liberals ward and others scorn:
Haste, haste to pass it now,
What gets us a sixtieth Senator?

 
We tried a takeover, tried control
The peasant people are rioting
We tried to obfuscate, tried to hide
The impact on lives we were planning

Chorus:
This, this is Obamacare,
Whom liberals ward and others scorn:
Haste, haste to pass it now,
What gets us a sixtieth Senator?

Tried buying votes, with earmarks and threats
But nothing seems to corral them
When one steps in one more disagrees
I can’t find a plan that calms all of them

Chorus:
This, this is Obamacare,
Whom liberals ward and others scorn:
Haste, haste to pass it now,
What gets us a sixtieth Senator?

So bring me Snowe and Jim and Joe
A place in history taunts me
All’s up for grabs don’t let me down
A cloture vote’s near don’t torment me!

Chorus:
This, this is Obamacare,
Whom liberals ward and others scorn:
Haste, haste to pass it now,
What gets us a sixtieth Senator?

It was suggested that if I ever recorded this, it should be done with a choir of children and at the end they should add:

“mmm mmm mmm Barack Hussein Obama.”

Revisions/extensions (10:28 am 12/16/2009, steveegg) – For those of you who don’t know the tune, I’ll take a page from Doug from Upland and provide one for you. Just don’t ask me to try to sing it; your pets and ears would not survive.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G4WnzcrUci0[/youtube]

I’m not sticking around for all the votes of the amendments, but there’s a few items to touch on (mostly courtesy my friends at The Weekly Standard:

• Joe Lieberman (ID-CT) went back to his roots and said that dumping the Medicare-expansion option was good enough for him.
• Michael Goldfarb reports that the White House has threatened Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE) with closure of Offutt Air Force Base (home to the United States Strategic Command, which handles all military things WMD, space, and command-and-control related) if he didn’t jump on board.
• Mary Katharine Ham broke out some classic movie cliff scenes in response to a quote from President Obama saying that the ‘Rats were on the precipice of an “achievement”. I’m partial to the use of the “Themla and Louise” one, as it was entirely self-inflicted just like PlaceboCare.
• The Senate Doctors, Tom Coburn, M.D. (R-OK) and John Barrasso, M.D. (R-WY) hammered home the pratfalls of going to that precipice, especially going there alone…
  [youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pfr1SLC2sUM[/youtube]

Expand Medicare!

That’s the latest non public, public option.  Even Politico.com recognizes that this new plan is really the “public option” with a new name:

To win over liberals disappointed at losing the public option, Democrats would allow older Americans starting at age 55 to buy into Medicare, the popular program for the aged. The Medicare expansion would be a significant victory for Democrats, who spent years pushing for it. The proposal would in effect create a public health insurance option for older Americans, since Medicare is government-funded and government-run.

On its Health Policy Blog, Mayo clinic posted in part:

Expanding this system to persons 55 to 64 years old would ultimately hurt patients by accelerating the financial ruin of hospitals and doctors across the country. A majority of Medicare providers currently suffer great financial loss under the program. Mayo Clinic alone lost $840 million last year under Medicare. As a result of these types of losses, a growing number of providers have begun to limit the number of Medicare patients in their practices.

Did you get that?  Did you pick up what what Mayo said?  Let’s pull out the key piece:

As a result of these types of losses, a growing number of providers have begun to limit the number of Medicare patients in their practices.

Time and again, the Democrats, including President Obama, have assured us that the implementation of Placebocare would not cause any form of rationing.  In fact they argue that more people will have access to health care with Placebocare than today.  How can you significantly increase participation in a bankrupt program and not get rationing?  You can’t!

Within the past month SK&A, a national health care information solution company released a study that looked a physician acceptance rates of Medicare and Medicaid. The study found that less than 83% of all physicians still accept Medicare or Medicare patients. Also found in the study is that large, hospital settings are more likely to accept Medicare than small group clinics, the North region of the US was most likely to have physicians that accepted Medicare (87%) while the West was the least likely (78%). Finally, the study found that high volume physicians (those who saw 31 or more patients per day), were more likely to accept medicare than those who saw 20 or fewer patients per day.

As recently as 2002, a study by the Medicare Advisory Council found that 90% of physicians accepted Medicare.  In less than 7 years 7% of physicians have exited the Medicare program.  I don’t know how the Democrats define rationing but I’d say that a shrinking supply of physicians or being limited to less than 15 minutes per visit because the economics dictate it, is a pretty good example of rationing.

Yesterday, as White House press secretary Robert Gibbs was questioned about polls showing President Obama continuing to drop in popularity, Gibbs responded:

I’m sure a 6-year-old with a crayon could do something not unlike that. I don’t put a lot of stake in, never have, in the EKG that is the daily Gallup trend.

In his response and follow up comments, Gibbs seems to suggest not only that a six year old is unable to control their crayons but also that anyone who puts any stock in polls is deemed to have the mental ability of a six year old.

First, having lived through the stages of dexterity improvement as it relates to color crayon control, I can attest that many six year olds are extremely capable of “staying within the lines” and even coloring  a reasonably straight line, when asked.

Second, while I would agree with Mr. Gibbs that any one poll may not accurately reflect the mood of the polled, multiple polls will certainly show a direction and a significance of the concern level.  Let’s look at an example.

Support for Placebocare is claimed by Mr. Gibbs, to have public support.  To be sure, there was a time when the public did support Placebocare.  However, as time has gone on, and the public finds out how damaging Placebocare will be to the economy, the quality of health care and their pocketbooks, public support has dropped to levels that should require a mercy killing.

Just today, three new polls came out showing a low and deteriorating support level for Placebocare:

QUINNIPIAC: “Voters Disapprove 52 – 38 Percent Of The Health Care Reform Proposal Under Consideration In Congress, And They Disapprove 56 – 38 Percent Of President Obama’s Handling Of Health Care, down from 53 – 41 percent in a November 19 survey by the independent Quinnipiac University.” (“Obama Approval Falls To New Low, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds,” Quinnipiac University, 12/9/09)

BLOOMBERG: “The poll finds significant opposition to using Medicarefor savings; 78 percent say they would oppose any cuts to the program.” (“Obama’s War Plan Gains Amid Doubts On Domestic Policy,” Bloomberg, 12/9/09)

PUBLIC POLICY POLLING: “Support For Obama On Health Care Has Hit Another New Low With Just 39% Of Voters Now Expressing Approval Of His Health Care Plans And 52% Opposed.” (“Obama’s December Standing,” Public Policy Polling, 12/9/09)

It is clear that there is no majority or even plurality of support for Placebocare.  In fact, when you start asking people about specific provisions as Bloomberg did, support becomes almost nearly non existent.

If believing that Placebocare does not have the American public’s support makes me a six year old, what does that make someone who believes it does have support, like Mr. Gibbs?

Yes, I know, it’s a pretty trite title.  That said, many of you would probably reply with “yes, but it fits most of your writing!”  OK, now that you’ve had your moment of sarcasm, can we get down to business?

The Senate Minority Leader, Mitch McConnell put out a press release denigrating the Democrat’s efforts to make a bad bill, worse.  As part of his statement, McConnell accused the Democrats of both a lack of principle and laziness by saying:

‘So what’s becoming abundantly clear is that the Majority will make any deal, agree to any terms, sign any dotted line that brings them closer to final passage of this terrible bill. They are, for lack of a better term, winging it on one of the most consequential pieces of domestic legislation in memory’

“Winging it” are they?  I don’t think so!  Whether it is Reid or someone else, the Democrats seem to know exactly what they are doing. 

The Senate started with a plan that was sure to split the Democrat caucus.  As Steve has on his poll, there were at least 3 issues capable of ensuring that Placebocare didn’t exit the Senate; abortion funding, public option and the cost.  We’ve already seen in the House version how the Democrats will “eliminate” abortion funding from the bill while retaining it via some smoke and mirrors.  We also know that for all the discussion of concern over cost, there is no Democrat that will stand in the way of a “historic” legislation due to a measly few trillion dollars.  That leaves the public option as the real divider.

Last night and this morning, we are hearing that the Democrats are finding a solution to the public option dilemma.  Articles like this one at Politico.com, are suggesting that a public option that is run privately but at the government’s direction, may be the solution that lets the Democrat spectrum be equally offended but provides a solution that is equally accepted.

I won’t go into the weak mindedness of this non public, public option other than to say; “Isn’t this just more of the same?”  Aren’t all plans today basically privately implemented but publicly mandated?

What I will say about the non public, public option is that not only might this get the Democrats to solidify, there are also signs that this kind of a solution may get the one Republican vote they need to close debate and move to a final vote.  In fact, the non public, public option is the brain child of Senator Olympia Snowe.  Yes, that’s right, the same Olympia Snowe who has a problem with a public option but has no problem with funding abortion services.  See how this is coming together?

It’s becoming clearer to me that rather than “winging it,” that while the outcome may be imperfect from their viewpoint, Democrats are close to finding a path that will allow them to attain their goal, control of the health care industry.  On the other hand, Mitch McConnell has yet to offer anything other than verbal tripe in the way of opposition.  Not once has McConnell demanded a unanimous consent on any amendment, nor has he required the reading of the bill.  Neither of these efforts would ultimately cause the bill’s failure if the Democrats are committed to unity for passage.  However, either or both of these efforts would delay the passage of any bill.  If there’s one hope for killing this bill it is kept in forcing the Democrat Senators to face their constituents another time before the vote.  If the polls are correct, a number of them will hear clearly, that they had better not vote for Placebocare, at least if they value their cushy jobs.

So, while Mitch McConnell accuses the Democrats of ethical flexiblity and “winging it” it would seem that at this point, he is the one operating without a plan and in fact, “winging it!”  Pot meet kettle!

I pointed out to you here that while the advertised cost of the first ten years of the House Placebocare bill was $829, the real cost, if fully implemented, was over $1.3 Trillion, 57% more than claimed.  The reason for this dramatic difference is that while the House plan has taxes and other revenue sources beginning almost immediately, the expenses, or implementation of the benefits, did start for nearly 4 years.

The Senate bill is no better than the House. It too begins to generate revenue long before it hits the full stride of expenses. As a result, the Senate bill claims it will cost around $1 Trillion. We all know that this number is false. What we don’t know is how big the real number is. Well, it appears that the Democrats might.

In comments today, Democrat Senator Max Baucus from Montana said:

“Just for a second — health care reform, whether you use a ten-year number or when you start in 2010 or start in 2014, wherever you start at, so it is still either $1 trillion or it’s $2.5 Trillion, depending on where you start…”

What?  “It’s either $1 Trillion or $2.5 Trillion, depending on where you start?” 

Senator Baucus is willing to concede that the Senate version of Placebocare could have a swing in cost of $1.5 Trillion, 150% of the advertised price, “depending on where you start.”  Baucus treats $1.5 Trillion dollars as if it’s some irrelevant amount.  He treats it as I would treat a dime in my checkbook balancing; as a rounding error!

If Senator Baucus is right and “It’s either $1 Trillion or $2.5 Trillion, depending on where you start,” might I suggest that we start really, really early?  I’d suggest we start where the price tag is still ZERO!

Poll after poll has shown that Placebocare is not supported by the majority of Americans.  One segment that inexplicably hadn’t moved to the anti Placebocare side has been the youth.  In fact, youth are one of the few segments that have consistently supported Placebocare.  In a Rasmussen poll this week, while overall support for Placebocare had dropped to 38%, the poll found that a majority of those under 30 continued to support Placebocare.

As I said earlier, the support amongst those under 30 is inexplicable.  Why?  Because those under 30 are the group most likely to feel the impact of Placebocare.

The under 30 group is the most likely not to carry insurance.  Under Placebocare, if you don’t have insurance you will be subject to fines, or in the House version, jail time.  Also, several studies have shown that for those who do have insurance, those under 30 will likely see significant increases in the cost of their insurance.  I referenced some of those studies here.

As long as Placebocare continues to have about a 40% support in the country, people like President Obama, Harry Reid, Nancy Pelosi and other tone deaf politicians, will maintain an effort to enact Placebocare under the guise of “demand.”  With all other age groups decidedly against Placebocare, if the under 30 group breaks its support, overall support will drop below 30% and that would likely be a death blow for Placebocare. 

That begs the question, “How to we move the folks under 30?”  Dick Morris and the League of American Voters may have found the answer.

Morris and the League have developed a commercial specifically targeted at the youth.  The commercial was played in the States of several key Democrat Senators just prior to the Senate vote of last weekend.  The results?  Prior to the commercial, the under 30 crowd in these states supported Placebocare 58% to 30% against.  After the commercial ran, the same age groups in the same states shifted to a 25% and 65% against Placebocare.

Hokey smoke Rocky! That’s a HUGE change. A change like that nationally would stop Placebocare in its tracks. So, what was the silver bullet in the message that got this dramatic change? Watch:

Turns out that those under 30 don’t like being taxed or penalized anymore than those over 30. Is it possible that those under 30 are just as economically rational as other age groups once they have the truth about how Placebocare will impact them? YUP!

Now that the Senate bill will enter debate it will be harder and harder for the Democrats to hide behind the “that’s not in the bill” argument using the “it’s not written yet” guise.  Both the House and Senate plans are in written form and both have horrendous implications for the young people of our country.  The longer the debate goes on, the more time to make sure that people have the information about what really is in the bill.  Time is not the Democrat’s best friend when it comes to Placebocare.