No Runny Eggs

The repository of one hard-boiled egg from the south suburbs of Milwaukee, Wisconsin (and the occassional guest-blogger). The ramblings within may or may not offend, shock and awe you, but they are what I (or my guest-bloggers) think.

Archive for posts by steveegg.

May 22, 2010

RPW convention – endorsement liveblog – UPDATE – Walker endorsed

by @ 13:42. Filed under RPW Convention.

Since updates might be fast and furious, I’ll be firing up Cover It Live for the endorsement liveblog.

Revisions/extensions (4:22 pm 5/22/2010) – In case you missed the liveblog, Scott Walker was overwhelmingly endorsed by the convention with 91.3% of the vote.

R&E part 2 (6:31 pm 5/22/2010) – Yes, we’re running way late. Round 1 of lieutenant governor endorsement balloting done, and Brett Davis led with 37.40%. Dave Ross (25.20%) Ben Collins (13.85%) also move on to round 2. Rebecca Kleefisch eliminated with 13.75%.

The Senate endorsement votes will be tomorrow.

R&E part 3 (7:42 pm 5/22/2010 – There will be no endorsement in the lieutenant governor’s race. Unofficially, Brett Davis ended the 3rd and final ballot with a bit under 50%, with Dave Ross a bit under 34%.

RPW interview – David King

by @ 11:51. Filed under RPW Convention.

Pastor David King is running for Secretary of State against incumbent Doug LaFollette. He sees a more visible role for secretary of state than it has currently.

Here is the interview.

RPW convention interview – Peter Theron

by @ 11:45. Filed under RPW Convention.

Peter Theron is running in the 2nd Congressional District, currently held by Tammy Baldwin. While this is a very tough seat for Republicans because it includes Madison, Theron pointed out that he outperformed the McCain/Palin ticket when he ran in 2008.

Here is the interview.

RPW convention interview – Dan Kapanke

by @ 10:45. Filed under RPW Convention.

My first interview of the day was with Dan Kapanke, who is taking on Ron Kind in the 3rd Congressional District. The caffeine hadn’t quite made it through my system yet, but since he’s the “forgotten” part of the quite-possible 3-seat switch, here it is.

Quick RPW convention first-day update

by @ 7:47. Filed under RPW Convention.

Sorry for the general lack of updates, but net access was a bit limited last night, and I don’t have a lot of time before I have to take off to the Midw…er, Frontier Airlines Center. First things first, Rep. Paul Ryan and Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty spoke at the chairman’s reception last night at the Harley Museum. Audio links are:

Paul Ryan’s comments
Tim Pawlenty’s comments

In case you missed my Twitter feed, last night’s highlight was the hospitality rooms. A sign the convention is crowded – nobody had enough food. I’d have to say the first-night winner was Ben Collins, who had an airsoft gun range set up (the gun was shooting a bit high and right) as part of his military-themed room. Other unique rooms were Scott Walker’s Arizona-themed room (complete with a live band), Mark Neumann’s luau-themed room (yes, he was wearing a Hawaiian shirt), and Dave Ross’ 50s-themed room. Also with rooms last night were Rebecca Kleefisch, Dave Westlake, David King, Terrence Wall (who was serving up cotton candy and sno-cones), and Brett Davis (who, other than Walker, had the most-consistently crowded room). Down on the first floor were several candidates for the 8th Congressional seat, while Ron Johnson set up a spread on the balcony and Dick Leinenkugel was meeting-and-greeting.

In any case, it’s off to today’s main floor session and some interviews.

May 20, 2010

Cerebus pays off part of OldChrysler’s TARP loan

by @ 13:24. Tags:
Filed under Business.

Yes, I’m late to this, but I didn’t have time to dig beyond the headline of “Chrysler repays $1.9 billion of its TARP loan” before now. As you can tell by my headline, it wasn’t UAW Motors that repaid it.

Let’s walk back to what went out the door to the Chrysler-related companies run by Cerebus before and during its bankruptcy:

  • $4 billion went to Chrysler on 1/2/2009 ($500 million assumed by UAW Motors)
  • $1.5 billion went to Chrysler Financial on 1/16/2009 (repaid before bankruptcy exit)
  • $280 million went to Chrysler for warranty obligations on 4/29/2009 (repaid before bankruptcy exit)
  • $1.89 billion in used Debtor-In-Possession financing went to Chrysler in May

In its write-up of the repayment, The Detroit News mentioned something about the original $4 billion loan I had not known before – the Bush administration placed a $2 billion lien on Chrysler Financial. That lien formed the basis of the continuing claim on the greater of $1.375 billion or 40% of Chrysler Financial’s distributions to the Cerebus subsidiary that was the parent Chrysler Holding company (incorrectly reported earlier as 40% of equity in Chrysler Financial) as it wound down following the Obama administration’s decree that GMAC and not Chrysler Financial handle loans for Chrysler vehicles.

I’ll pick up with the Treasury Department press release (which also offered the correction on the “40%”). Old Chrysler was liquidated on April 30, with, as expected, no repayment of the $5.4 billion debt retained by the company. The $1.9 billion in DIP financing was extinguished at that point, with some small unspecified claims from the sale of certain assets retained by the Treasury. That left only the Chrysler Financial claim to repay at least part of the TARP loan.

Cerebus ultimately coughed up $1.9 billion of that. The Detroit News quoted a Treasury spokesperson as saying that the payment came from “both distributions from Chrysler Financial and contributions from its equity owners”. That was sufficient to satisfy the remaining claim on Chrysler Financial, probably because it was more than the $1.375 billion “floor”, even though it was less than the $2 billion lien the Bush administration put on Chrysler Financial and Chrysler Financial isn’t quite fully wound down.

The remaining $2.1 billion of the TARP loan, as well as the $1.9 billion DIP financing, has thus been written off. Combined with the $7.1 billion UAW Motors still owes the federal government, with the first payments scheduled to begin next year, that leaves $11.1 billion still out there. Given Chrysler’s continuing sliding market share, I somehow doubt the Treasury will get $7.1 billion in payments or $4 billion for their 8%-9.85% equity stake.

Open Thread Thursday – let there be lightning

by @ 6:07. Filed under Open Thread Thursday.

I’m running out of witty titles (some of you would say I never had witty titles), but given Ronnie James Dio died this week, there’s only one voice to play today…

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LmSt1oEIshE[/youtube]

For those of you needing a good laugh, JammieWearingFool found some “unfortunately-named” products for you to enjoy.

That’s the kind of stuff I want to see in the comments. Go to it, and good luck.

Draw Mohammed Day

by @ 0:01. Filed under War on Terror.

In case you haven’t heard, Today is Draw Mohammed Day. Since I’m only fair-to-middling with my Photoshop skills, and I have ZERO ink skills, I decided to adapt my Twitter pic for the occasion, showing Mohammed entering and exiting the 21st Century….

May 19, 2010

Covering the 2010 RPW State Convention

by @ 14:41. Filed under RPW Convention.

For the third year, I’ll be covering the Republican Party of Wisconsin State Convention. I’ll be joined by a few of my friends:

– Kevin Binversie from Lakeshore Laments
– Owen Robinson from Boots and Sabers
– Kyle Maichle from North Shore Exponent
– Rick Sense from The Inside Scoop
– The gang from the MacIver Institute

If you can’t make it down to Milwaukee for the fun, stick around, visit the friends, and stay tuned for the news from the convention. Of course, if you can make it to Milwaukee, come on down – there’s going to be so many people here that the RPW needed to get the Midw…er, Frontier Airlines Center for Saturday’s portion.

Post-primary thoughts

by @ 10:15. Filed under Politics - National.

Revisions/extensions (5:18 pm 5/19/2010) – There’s some rather good, learned takes that are better than mine out there. First up, there’s a whole series from Jim Geraghty. Then, there’s Melissa Clouthier, who linked to this missive. DaTechguy compared and contrasted PA-12 with Massachusetts. Stacy McCain filed a back-home closing dispatch after spending a lot of shoe leather in the district. Go read their takes as well.

In case you missed the toplines from yesterday’s primaries (and special election for the seat formerly held by John Murtha), Arlen “Scottish Law” Specter (D-PA) is now a lame-duck Senator, Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) is headed for a runoff in her primary, Rand Paul knocked off Trey Grayson in Kentucky’s Republican Senate primary, and the Democrats hung onto the House seat formerly held by John Murtha. Let’s see if I can make any sense out of all that.

The first two items are actually the same phenomenon – After riding the nutroot wave to power, Barack Obama has become The Establishment, and the nutroots are as anti-Establishment as ever. When old Scottish Law became Specter the Defector (credit BobNoxious’ mom for that one), Obama and the establishment in the Pennsylvania Democrat Party embraced him. Joe Stestak ran as the “real” Democrat, and won going away.

Meanwhile, Blanche Lincoln, despite voting (or perhaps because she voted) with Harry Reid and Barack Obama, couldn’t pull 50%+1 to avoid a runoff with nutroot-approved Lt. Gov. Bill Haller. I’m still waiting for the presstitute exposés on how the nutroots have taken over the Democrat Party at the state level.

That brings me to the mixed-bag main events, ones that may have implications for Wisconsin. The first is the Paul trouncing of Grayson. Paul wholly-embraced the Tea Party movement, with full reciprocity. Meanwhile, Grayson clung solely to the establishment that tried to install him. The results weren’t even close, even though (or more-likely because) it was a closed primary limited to Republican party members.

I’m sure the Mark Neumann camp would like to make hay of that result. However, they already botched the attempt to tie themselves to the Tea Party movement; while Neumann waited until February 2010, a full year after the movement began and 7 months after he entered the race, to publicly reach out to Tea Party-related groups, Scott Walker was out there early and often.

That brings me to what is being spun as the “Big Dem Win” – Mark Critz’s 7.6-point win over Tim Burns in the special election for Pennsylvania’s 12th Congressional district, the seat formerly held by John Murtha. While on the surface, it is a big win, the fact that normal primary elections happened at the same time means one can quantify just how unpopular even a Dem who ran away from the Dem agenda, as Critz did, is. In the 3-person Democrat primary for the full-term fall election, just under 81,000 Democrats participated, with just under 46,000 Republicans participating in their 2-person primary (also won by Burns), which made for a participation margin of D+27.6 points. In the special election, 10,000 of those who voted in the Democrat primary did not vote for Critz, 15,000 who did not vote in the Republican primary voted for Burns, with 3,000 voting for the Libertarian candidate. That still leaves a 20-point swing away from the Dem column and to the GOP column.

There were 22,000 23,000 (forgot to round up) votes in the Democrat primary that did not go to Critz. Somehow, I doubt 10,000 of them voted in the Democrat primary, then turned around to vote for Burns in the special election, so I’ll take the scenario that those 10,000 simply didn’t vote in the special election. Even with that assignment, Critz would have only won by 14 points, a 13.6-point swing to the Republicans.

Neither Steve Kagen (the Dem Congressman in the 8th District) nor Julie Lassa (the Dem state senator who is the anointed candidate for the 7th Congressional seat being vacated by Dave Obey) can be too happy with that bit of math. The 8th is considered a “swing” district, even after the last 2 elections, while the 7th isn’t nearly as Democratic as Pennsylvania’s 12th. Moreover, neither Kagen (who proudly proclaimed he was one of the architechts of PlaceboCare) nor Lassa (who voted for Healthy-and-Depopulated Wisconsin back in 2007) can credibly run as anything other than Huge Government Liberal Democrats.

May 18, 2010

Tuesday Hot Reads – a two-part American Thinker debt-bomb special

by @ 7:36. Filed under Economy, Politics - National.

If you’re not reading American Thinker, you are missing out on some of the brightest minds in political thought. Most outfits would put their “B-side” blog as their front page. A pair of posts from Monty Pelerin and Vasko Kohlmayer on the American debt bomb that is about to go off are prime examples of that. First, Mr. Pelerin on a possible doomsday scenario:

It is likely that Greece represents the prototype for early US responses. Political denial and cowardice will defer hard decisions. Eventually external forces will force action. The US government will become the same Pavlovian dog conditioned to respond to riots and violence. California is likely to be the first “trainer.” If the US government resists bailing out CA, then the streets of CA will be the learning center for the US Pavlovian dog. When (and I believe they will) the US government bails out CA, there is no end to the beggars that will show up. Eventually we run out of money, at least money that can be raised in financial markets. (We may be at this point already.)

My guess, and it is only that, is that the US government will do everything it can to avoid the necessary cuts and the resulting violence in the streets. That implies massive monetization to fund commitments. Ultimately that will destroy the currency and result in an hyperinflationary depression that will cause markets to cease to function other than on a barter system. Savings and fixed income pensions will be destroyed.

While printing money might buy some time, it will worsen outcomes, including worse violence. A hyperinflationary depression will destroy the country and perhaps our mode of government.

Somehow, I think that’s the goal. All the Boomers who are running things need to do is keep the plates spinning for another 20 years or so.

Next, Mr. Kohlmayer explains the nature of the public debt (link to Wikipedia removed as I don’t trust Wikipedia as far as I can throw it):

If anything, Intragovernmental Holdings – the part Mr. Hall terms “soft” – would be far more difficult to renege on than the other portion of the debt, since it concerns retirement money of Americans. One can well imagine the outrage that would erupt if one day politicians announced that we were going to simply “forget” about it. Given that senior citizens are electorally most potent demographic, no politician would ever dare to suggest that we do such a thing.

If any portion of the debt will ever get repealed it would be the Debt Held by the Public. Given that most Americans do not own government bonds, initially this form of default would directly affect only a comparatively small portion of the population. Much of the immediate loses would be, in fact, borne by foreign central banks and governments that hold US dollars as reserve currency. There would, of course, be much anger and protestations on their part. Politicians, however, would much prefer to face the wrath of foreigners than of their own citizens, since the Chinese cannot participate in our elections (or at least they are not supposed to)….

I do have to raise a point of order or two at this point. First, attempts by governments to renege on foreign-held debt have historically been met with war. Something tells me that the ChiComs aren’t simply going to walk away from north of $2 trillion, even in the “kinder, gentler” Third Millenium.

Second, that day of reckoning on the Intragovernmental Holdings is coming. It won’t affect those at or very near retirement, but those of my generation (the aptly-named GenX) are already being conditioned to accept that government won’t be there for us, even as we’re being told that we have to pay and pay and pay and pay for the lack of foresight on the part of our elders by not producing enough of us to keep the SocSecurity Ponzi scheme going while blindly depending on pensions that for the most part died before they got to use them.

The question is, will the publicly-held debt bomb explode before the Boomers die off? Something tells me that the proverbial spinning plates are already wobbling beyond stability.

Back to Mr. Kohlmayer for his close:

The dire nature of our fiscal situation has been recently pointed out by the International Monetary Fund which explicitly warned that the US national debt is soon to exceed 100 percent of GDP. The Fund cautioned that if nothing is done the figure will rise dramatically in the years ahead. Paradoxically, the IMF recommended that the amount by which the US needed reduce its structural deficits was greater than that recommended for Greece.

With the deficit projected to hit 10.6 percent of GDP this year and with long-term unfunded entitlement liabilities of some 104 trillion, the United States is indeed quickly becoming Greece on the Atlantic’s western shore.

May 17, 2010

Cougars in Wisconsin

by @ 14:00. Filed under Miscellaneous.

From the Wisconsin State Journal:

For many years, cougars have been but a ghostly rumor in Wisconsin, showing up now and then in mysterious sightings but quickly melting again into the dusk of the forest and the realm of imagination.

Now, however, cougars are back, and state Department of Natural Resources workers must develop a plan for how to deal with a powerful animal that hasn’t lived in Wisconsin since about 1910.

The state Department of Natural Resources has confirmed three wild cougars in Wisconsin over the past two years through sightings and genetic testing, said Adrian Wydeven, a DNR wildlife biologist, and the agency has received many more unconfirmed cougar sighting reports. Though it is unclear whether the cats were resident animals or passing through, state wildlife workers need to know how to deal with them and how to prevent clashes between cougars and people as the animals move into the state.

Too bad “24” has been cancelled – we could’ve brought the show to Wisconsin for a reunion between Kim “Cougar Bait” Bauer and a cougar.

.222

by @ 13:01. Filed under Sports.

That is the Brewers’ home record percentage so far this year. How pathetic is 4-14? Let me count the ways:

  1. Only the New York Mets have as few road wins (4-12) as the Brewers have home wins, but they got their 4 road wins in two fewer games.
  2. The Baltimore Orioles, who have the worst road record at 5-15 as part of a MLB-worst 12-26, have a better road record than the Brewers’ home record.
  3. .222 is the batting average of Brandon Inge, the Detroit Tigers third baseman.
  4. Out of 178 players who are “qualified” to be on MLB’s leaderboards (i.e., those who have had 3.1 plate appearances, which includes Inge), only 25 have a lower batting average. Interestingly, while no current Brewers are on that list, two Brewer castoffs – Lyle Overbay and Carlos Lee – are.
  5. Out of those 178 “qualified” players, only one has a lower slugging percentage, St. Louis Cardinals shortstop Brendan Ryan (.219).
  6. Again out of those 178 “qualified” players, nobody has a lower on-base percentage. Chicago Cubs third baseman Aramis Ramirez (.234) is closest.

    7. Boo stale beer!

McCallum endorses Wall

by @ 11:58. Filed under Politics - National, Politics - Wisconsin.

In a statement released by the Terrence Wall campaign, former Wisconsin Governor Scott McCallum said:

Terrence Wall has balanced budgets for the last 20 years as a small business owner. That’s exactly the kind of experience we need in Washington today. I’m endorsing Terrence because I know he will stand up to the power brokers in Washington – Democrats or Republicans – and fight for a balanced budget that won’t saddle our children with any more debt. As Governor, I wasn’t afraid to propose true spending cuts, and I know Terrence won’t be either.

This ties into a pledge from Wall last week to vote only for a balanced budget.

Normally, an ex-governor’s endorsement would be gigantic news. However, McCallum was a “caretaker” governor who happened to be lieutenant governor when Tommy Thompson left for the Bush administration, and his attempts to put Wisconsin on a track toward budget solvency wasn’t well-received even by his fellow Republicans.

Ron Johnson is in the Senate race

by @ 11:32. Filed under Politics - National, Politics - Wisconsin.

Ron Johnson, president of Pacur Inc., has announced his candidacy for the Republican nomination for United States Senate. My initial thoughts are that he is a good person, but that there are now too many people in the primary, especially considering a former Doyle cabinet member who just can’t let go of his liberal views is one of those four.

May 13, 2010

That $83 billion April deficit is worse than you think

by @ 17:50. Filed under Politics - National.

If you pay attention to financial news, you probably know the federal government ran a $82.7 billion deficit in the month of April. As JammieWearingFool notes, it’s a record-setting 19th consecutive month of monthly deficits, and only the 13th of the past 56 Aprils to post a montly deficit.

Before I get to the “how much worse”, I do have to note that the government did “accelerate” some payments from May 1 to April 30. However, that is only somewhere south of $19 billion in additional outlays, and only reduces the “natural” monthly deficit to $64 billion (give or take a couple billion).

The first two parts of the “how much worse is it” comes from Tom Blumer. Do you remember what I said about April historically being a surplus month for the feds? In April 2007, the monthly surplus was $178 billion, and in April 2008, the monthly surplus was $159 billion. Compare that to the $21 billion deficit in April 2009 and this April’s $83 billion deficit.

That flows into the second part from Tom – tax revenues are still cratering, both from before the start of The Great Recession (soon to be named The Greatest Depression) and from last year. Total federal receipts for April are down 36.1% from April 2007, and down 7.9% from April 2009.

On that note, the best instantaneous measure of income generation is, at least until the effects of PlaceboCare distort it, the portion of the FICA/SECA tax that goes to the Hospital Insurance portion of Medicare. It taxes every dollar earned at the same percentage, and despite an extra Friday, the FICA (withheld) take was 2.6% lower in April 2010 than it was in April 2009, and the SECA (that’s from the first-quarter 2010 quarterly estimated payments plus any unpaid portion from 2009) take was 4.0% lower in April 2010 than it was in 2009. The combined drop from April 2009 to April 2010 is 3.0%. If this is a “recovery”, then it’s not only a jobless one, but a payless one.

The third part comes from Karl Denninger via Dad29. The national debt increased not by $83 billion, but by $175 billion. Karl caught the usual suspect – the various “trust funds” buying more Treasuries.

There, however, is a second part, noted by Fox Business at the time and fallen into the memory hole. Back in February, the Treasury announced it was “recapitalizing” something called the Supplementary Financing Program. It was originally a “temporary” infusion of $300 billion of cash from the Treasury to the Federal Reserve back in September 2008 (that’s right, pre-TARP) to allow the Federal Reserve to do stuff like prop up AIG. Since that cash was funded with Treasury securities, it became a “victim” of the bump-up against the debt ceiling, and had dropped to $5 billion by February. Since Timothy “TurboTax” Geithner, the architect of the SFP when he was head of the New York Federal Reserve, liked the no-strings-attached slush fund so much, as soon as the debt ceiling was raised, he decided to bring it back to $200 billion between the end of February and the end of April. I wonder who the next AIG/GM is – the Communists in the Executive Branch are already planning for their next corporate takeover.

The “cute” trick is that while all that money came from the sale of bonds and remains there because said bonds are being rolled over, since it’s “cash”, the amount available to the Federal Reserve is counted as part of the Treasury’s “Operating Cash” and thus offsets the debt issued to create it. Specifically for April, $75 billion went out the door that way.

Open Thread Thursday – Who’ll stop the rain?

by @ 9:44. Filed under Open Thread Thursday.

Fortunately, it’s not nearly as bad as Nashville the other weekend, but it’s still wet.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=713eOEQmOA0[/youtube]

I probably should’ve declared Open Thread Week because I’ve been too far out of it, but it’s because I’ve been so far out of it that I didn’t do that. Still, I’ve got a couple things on the burner, including the first negative (at least tentatively) April for Social Security’s Disability Insurance “Trust Fund” since monthly records were kept, the speed with which the DPW “deconflicted” the 7th Congressional District with an anointed candidate, and the support for identity and vote theft by the Government “Accountability” Board (in Soviet Wisconsin, government votes for you).

May 11, 2010

Drinking Right – the drowning version

by @ 7:09. Tags:
Filed under Miscellaneous.

This is the Emergency Blogging System. It has been activated because Steve is as wet as a drowned rat.

There are only two more fully-smoked Drinking Rights left before the smokers get kicked to the curb. Tonight is one of them. Come on down to Papa’s Social Club, 7718 W Burleigh in Milwaukee, at 7 pm to enjoy good drinks and good company. If you’re worried about drowning, the National Weather Service is saying the rain should be pretty much over by 7.

This concludes this broadcast of the Emergency Blogging System.

May 7, 2010

Another Right Wing News blog temperature check – Immigration edition

by @ 7:27. Filed under Immigration, Politics - National.

Once again, John Hawkins provided an outlet for some of the most influential bloggers on the right side of the blogosphere, as well as Shoebox and me, to weigh in on the issues of the day. This time, the poll concerns immigration. Let’s run through the questions and answers (my choices underlined):

  • Do you approve of Arizona’s new immigration law? (49 votes yes, 1 vote no) -Arizona has pretty much become the crime state of the union thanks to Mexican drug gangs, most of whom are illegal aliens.
  • Would you like to see your state implement something like Arizona’s new immigration law? (49 votes yes, 1 vote no) – Since it’s good enough for Arizona, it’s good enough for Wisconsin.
  • Do you believe Arizona’s new immigration law constitutes racial profiling or discriminates against Hispanic Americans? (2 votes yes, 47 votes no) – No. The Cliff Notes’ version of what it actually does – It authorizes Arizona law enforcement personnel to check into the immigration status of those already lawfully stopped by them if they have a reasonable suspicion about their residency, requires the various local governments of Arizona to actually enforce the law, and puts the “criminal” in “illegal alien” (both being and hiring). That criminality doesn’t go nearly as far as similar provisions in Mexican law.
  • If you had to choose between the following options, which would you prefer? (4 votes comprehensive immigration reform, 46 votes immigration reform that focused on security before addresssing the status of illegals already in the country) – I would actually prefer that the illegals be tossed out as the border is secured, but that’s not the type of “comprehensive immigration reform” that the bipartisan Party-In-Government wants to consider.
  • If we implemented comprehensive reform, which of the following best describes what you think would happen? (39 votes illegals would become citizens, but the border wouldn’t be secured, 10 votes illegals would become citizens and the border would be secured) – History is my guide here. It would be a repeat of 1986.
  • Do you believe the fence on our southern border will be completed while Barack Obama is in office? (0 votes yes, 50 votes no) – I’m not in the bridge-buying business.
  • On the whole, which of these sentiments best describes your thoughts about illegal aliens? (2 votes they make America a better place to live, 47 votes they make America a worse place to live) – Unless they’re completely off-the-grid, they’re committing, at a minimum, identity fraud to remain here.
  • On the whole, which of these sentiments best describes your thoughts about legal immigrants? (49 votes they make America a better place to live, 1 vote they make America a worse place to live) – I unabashedly say this, partly because my grandmother came here from Weimar Germany. Those who come here legally tend to be those who want to better themselves in such a way that betterment extends to the larger community.

    Besides, where else can you have bratwurst one day, corned beef a second, General Tso’s chicken a third, tacos a fourth, veal parmigiana a fifth, jambalaya a sixth, and shish kabobs a seventh, all made by those who can trace their heritage to the points-of-origin of those foods?

  • Do you think the United States is doing a good job of assimilating immigrants? (11 votes yes, 39 votes no) – On the whole, we still are a melting pot. However, the big challenge is not the Hispanic population but the Muslim populatoin.
  • Do you believe that taking a tough line on illegal immigration would be winning issue for Republicans in the 2010 election? (43 votes yes, 7 votes no) – I’m not nearly as certain that it is a winning issue as I am that surrendering would guarantee a permanent Democrat/Socialist majority.

May 6, 2010

Open Thread Thursday – levee-busting edition

by @ 8:51. Filed under Open Thread Thursday.

There’s a double meaning behind today’s Open Thread Thursday song – the devastating floods in Tennessee, and the departure of Dave Obey from elective politics…

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xbJQT2eDseA[/youtube]

Have at it, folks.

May 5, 2010

Obey out

by @ 22:01. Filed under Politics - National, Politics - Wisconsin.

I’m sure you’ve heard by now that House Appropriatons Committee chair David Obey (D-Wausau) will not be running for re-election this year. I’ll refer you to Kevin Binversie for the learned explanation of what’s next, but I do have a couple thoughts of my own:

  • Even in a district where, outside Obey, Democrats and liberals have averaged double-digit wins over the last 5 years, with only Justices Michael Gableman and Annette Ziegler breaking through the stranglehold, and perhaps especially in a district where the elderly incumbent hasn’t campaigned in a very long time, a credible multi-prong campaign (this from Sean Duffy) can be very effective. Kevin relayed a story about how this cycle was the first time Obey felt the need to put up a campaign website, and somewhere in my stack of stuff is a story of how the Wausaw Democratic Party office didn’t have any Obey signs on display.

    While Obey had almost $1.4 million cash on hand at the end of the first quarter and Duffy only had $339,000 cash on hand at the end of the first quarter, individual donations for the first quarter were far closer, with Obey having a $253,000-$210,000 advantage. Obey did have a massive $187,000-$9,300 advantage in party/PAC money for the quarter.

  • A huge part of that pressure came from my friends at Americans for Prosperity, especially the Wisconsin chapter, and the members of the Wausau Tea Party. They’ve been targeting Obey for years for his pork-spending ways, going all the way back to 2006.
  • That gaping opening has to put a crimp in what appears to be the Democratic Party of Wisconsin’s plans to have no meaningful primaries this year and attempt to take over the Republican Party’s primaries (which would tend to benefit the likes of Tom Barrett as the sole Dem gubernatorial nominee, and those Republicans, or “Republicans” as the case may be, that wouldn’t otherwise have much of a chance to make it to November and give the Dem opponents greater hope – Mark Neumann, Dick Leinenkugel and Dan Mielke). The legislators (the Poltiico story, which is the first link above, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, which is the second link above, and Kevin all mention Senate Majority Leader Russ Decker; Politico also lists several other legislators, some of whom declined in the Journal Sentinel story) are the headliners, but as Kevin points out, they’ve got a “taxing” issue. They also have a visibility issue – a state senator is a virtual unknown to 3/4ths of the district while an assembly member is a virtual unknown to 11/12ths of the district.

    Kevin suggests that a mayor/village president would get in, but they would have an even bigger visibility and monetary disadvantage.

    It is likely that there will be a multi-person primary. The Republicans need only pick up 4 of 99 seats in the Assembly and/or 2 of 17 seats in the Senate to get a majority, and both Republican candidates for governor continue to lead the presumptive Democrat nominee. Even if the Democrats ultimately lose control of the House of Representatives, a tripling of salary and some propsect of being relevant is likely going to get more than one person to bail on the Legislature. Further, Sen. Julie Lassa, as well as any mayor/village president (or nonpartisan county official) won’t have to choose which office to run for.

    Everybody involved has a relatively-short deadline to decide – the filing deadline is July 13.

  • The Journal Sentinel brought a blast from the past. Obey completed graduate work in Soviet politics at UW, but rather than collect the master’s degree, he decided to put that knowledge to work. I’m shocked, SHOCKED to find that out.

While the road appears to be clear for Duffy, who not only has some money and national support (notably from Sarah Palin and the House Conservatives Fund), but also significant in-district support (including the district caucus endorsement), there are still a pair of hurdles. The first is Dan Mielke, who got crushed by Obey in 2008 after running unopposed in the primary, and is back for more. Somehow I doubt the rank-and-file is going to go for Mielke in September given the general lack of support, and the likelyhood of a Democratic primary would tend to prevent Operation Chaos.

The second is the aforementioned Democrat tilt of the district. The Cook Report’s D+3 rating actually understates how dominant the Democrats have been. The Government Accountability Board doesn’t have Congressional district-level results prior to the fall 2004 elections (except for the 2000 fall election), but they do have them for the succeeding elections. The recent results (outside the typical Obey whitewashings):

– 2000 Presidential (prior to redistricting) – Gore +1.40 (compared to Gore +0.22 statewide)
– 2000 Senate (prior to redistricting) – Kohl +35.98 (Kohl +24.51 statewide)
– 2004 Presidential – Kerry +0.86 (Kerry +0.38 statewide)
– 2004 Senate – Feingold +14.35 (Feingold +11.24 statewide)
– 2006 Governor – Doyle +12.35 (Doyle +7.39 statewide)
– 2006 Attorney General – Falk +2.60 (Van Hollen +0.42 statewide)
– 2006 Senate – Kohl +41.93 (Kohl +37.85 statewide)
– 2008 Presidential – Obama +13.19 (Obama +13.91 statewide)

In the five recent contested district-wide non-partisan races (3 state Supreme Court races and 2 state superintendent races), only Justices Annette Ziegler (who did significantly worse than she did statewide) and Michael Gableman (who outperformed his statewide numbers because he is from the district and was facing an appointed Justice from Milwaukee who already lost one Supreme Court race) broke through the liberal stranglehold, with 19-26 point advantages for the liberal candidates in the other 3 races.

That said, recent semi-leaked internal polls reportely had Obey in serious trouble against Duffy. Given the entirety of the potential legislative challengers have similar pork-related problems to Obey, I don’t see a “fresh Dem face” doing any better against Duffy.

I would be remiss if I didn’t mention a couple of non-WI07 items. First, Obey looked and sounded quite worn out. That is not unexpected for a 71-year-old who finally fulfilled a lifelong dream to put the US on the road to CubaCare by hook and by crook. On the other hand, Politico noted that, as late as Tuesday, his campaign staff was hiring.

Second, he is a close confidant of Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Even if the Democrats maintained control of the House come January, it is “not exactly” a given she would continue as Speaker. If she were ousted, allies of hers would likely suffer. I don’t think Obey would take kindly to being either the ranking member on Appropriations or worse, just a member.

Revisions/extensions (10:20 pm 5/5/2010) – With another tip of the hat to Kevin, the Cook Political Report moved the seat from Likely Democratic to Toss-Up.

Also, there’s something I missed in the Journal Sentinel story that Kevin picked up – we might get a third Republican in the race, Rep. Jerry Petrowski (R-Marathon). However, as Kevin notes, if Decker jumps in the House race, Petrowski may well try for Decker’s Senate seat if he’s in the mood for bucking for a promotion.

R&E part 2 (12:16 am 5/6/2010) – Yes, I’m up way too late. However, my man in the know in the Capitol, Lance Burri, has a few words on what it would mean for the two Senate Dems who would be giving up their seat for a shot at the House. He says that, if Decker runs, he knows the Senate Dems are in for a whupping and that he’d be out of the leadership. If Pat Kreitlow runs, he knows he’d be a casualty. Bonus item on Kreitlow – I didn’t know he was considered one of the more vulnerable Dems (I thought that honor went to Jim Sullivan, John Lehman and Kathleen Vinehout), and do remember it takes only 2 of those to fall for the Republicans to take back the Senate.

Ask Egg – the glorious return

by @ 19:31. Filed under Ask Egg.

It’s been far too long since I dipped into the proverbial mailbag, but the allregies are in full bloom, and the snark is screaming to be unleashed. Let’s roll.

Dear Egg,

I just can’t help but unleash my inner Alinsky. Whether it’s those redressing their grievances with government, those in the opposition party, allies of this country, or corporations who gave me more money than they gave anybody else, I keep insulting them. HELP!

-Steamrolling in DC

Dear Steamroller,

Allow me to quote your favorite WWF ex-rassler for the advice, “Know your role and shut your mouth.” Otherwise, I’ll be forced to make this little diddy into a full song:

Boots on the throat,
Boots on the throat,
Looking like Stalin with the jackboots on the throat.
With the arm sticking out, nose in the air, boots hit the throat.

-Egg

Dear Egg,

Until recently, I served as a mostly-ineffectual cabinet member of the governor of one party. Since he’s on his way out (let’s not get into why; I truly love the guy even if the people don’t), I’m looking for a new challenge, and I think I found a doozy – run for the Senate nomination of the other party. How can I fool the people into voting for me, at least in the primary?

-Brewing something in Chippewa Falls

Dear Brewing,

Normally, I’d say you’re screwed, blued, and tattooed, but seeing your (former) party is busy clearing its primaries of any and all challengers, run as yourself. By all means defend a tax hike that is responsible for nearly half one of the few remaining Wisconsin gems’ losses. By all means tie yourself to that unpopular governor – after all, their supporters will be free to support you in the primary, and then go home to the most-liberal Senator in the nation.

Oh wait a minute – that plan is falling apart as 1/8th of the state won’t be able to play that crossover game. I should’ve stuck with the default.

-Egg

Dear Egg,

Up until the brain trust in DC convinced me to give up a cushy governor’s job to run for Senate, my subjects loved me. Since then, things have gone downhill, as first my subjects, then the guy who I hugged abandoned me. That tanning cream is telling me, “If you just go rogue,…”

– Tanned in Tallahassee

Dear Tanned,

A prerequisite for going Rogue is not growing government. What, you say? You want to run as an independent? That’s not going to end well. Just ask Ross Perot.

Did you expect any help from The Steamroller? Dude, haven’t you noticed all the bloodstains on the underside of that bus he’s driving? Did you notice his footwear? If he stomps on the throats of a group of people that gave him more money than they gave anybody else, he’s not going to help somebody who hugged him.

One more thing – orange is a fruit, not a skin color.

-Egg

May 4, 2010

Graphic of the day – the three classes of American business

by @ 15:41. Filed under Business, Politics - National.

Tom McMahon nails it again…

As usual when I “borrow” Tom’s stuff, the comments are off here.

Social Security crater – March 2010 update, and a Roadmap out

by @ 15:27. Filed under Social Security crater.

Before I get to the Social Security Administration’s Office of the Chief Actuary’s score of Paul Ryan’s Roadmap for America’s Future, I do have to recap the March 2010 “Trust Fund” performance. The combined funds took in $51,549 million in total income, including $97 million in “interest”, and paid out $58,296 million. That resulted in a gross monthly deficit of $6,747 million (3rd-worst peformance since monthly records from 1987 became available, beaten only by February 2010 and an anomalous August 1990) and a primary (cash) deficit of $6,844 million (4th-worst performance since 1987, behind the two aforementioned months and December 2009). The 12-month changes in the trust funds were +$102,423 million gross (worst since 12/1997-11/1998) and -$15,833 million primary (worst since monthly records were kept in 1987).

Once again, both components of the fund ran both gross and primary monthly deficits – the Disability Insurance fund ran a $2,881 million gross/$2,902 million primary monthly deficit (12-month deficits of $15,688 million gross, bringing its balance to under $200,000 million, and $26,159 million primary), and the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance fund ran a $3,864 million gross/$3,940 million primary monthly deficit (12-month surpluses of $118,115 million gross and $10,257 million primary, the latter its worst performance since the effects of an anomalous performance in November 1994 were aged off).

That brings me to the OACT’s scoring of the Roadmap. They dusted off their 2009 Intermediate Scenario, plugged Ryan’s proposal into it, and pronounced that it would make Social Security solvent over a 75-year period with no net transfers from the general fund (I can’t stress the “net” enough). How does that happen? Let’s take a look at Ryan’s plan:

  • The big one is the partial-privatization. Starting in 2012, those who hadn’t turned 55 yet could divert a part of their Social Security tax to a personal retirement account managed much like the government employees’ Thrift Savings Plan. That starts at 2% of the first $10,000 of covered earnings and 1% of covered earnings in excess of $10,000 (that indexed for inflation), rising to the maximum 8%/4% in 2042.

    Those who participate would have their “traditional” Old-Age and Survivor Insurance (the main part of Social Security) payments reduced by the percentage of theoretical maximum participation (i.e. those who fully-participate starting in 2042 would receive $0 in “traditional” OASI payments). However, they would receive a guarantee that their account balance at retirement would not be less than their contributions accumulated by the rate of inflation (Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers), with Social Security making up any shortfall.

    At retirement, they would be required to purchase annuities that, combined with any OASDI (this includes any disability payments from Social Security) payments, would guarantee them monthly payments of at least 150% of the federal poverty level. The entirety of the personal retirement account, including the annuities, any excess amount after purchase of the annuities, and any pre-retirement death distributions to a designated beneficiary or the estate, would be tax-free.

  • Potentially the most-controversial part is capturing employer-provided health-care benefits in the payroll tax. I’ll let the OACT summary describe it – “Specifically, any cost toward such group health insurance borne by employees would cease to be deductible, and the cost borne by employers would now be allocated to employees as if it had been wages, for the purpose of payroll tax (and later, benefit) calculations. Both employee and employer OASDI payroll taxes would be affected by this proposal.”
  • The first of two elements to make Social Security more “progressive” also may face problems: the top-earning 70% of newly-retiring workers starting in 2018 would have their OASI benefit-growth rates reduced from average wage growth to, those making at least the maximum taxable amount having benefit-growth rate at average CPI growth. Those between the maximum taxable amount and the 30th-percentile would have a sliding-scale reduction of growth to somewhere between CPI and wage growth, and the bottom 30% would see no change.
  • The second “progressive” element would increase OASI benefits for those making less than 200% of the 2009 minimum wage (indexed for wage growth) for more than 20 years, reaching a maximum OASI payment level of 120% of the poverty level (assuming no PSA participation) for those making the 2009 minimum wage (indexed) for at least 30 years.
  • The Normal Retirement Age change would be accelerated from 67 in 2022 to 67 in 2021, and indexed to keep it at 20 years below the life expectancy thereafter.
  • The solvency of the “Trust Funds” would be statutorially-guaranteed at 100% of the following year’s estimated cost (the Trust Fund Ratio), with the Treasury selling bonds to cover the cost. The “Trust Funds” would be authorized to repay that up to the point of the Trust Fund Ratio being a minimum of 125%.

I’ve been a bit too busy to fully take a look at it to see what could be culled and still have it make long-term actuarial sense. The taxation of employer health benefits isn’t “exactly” supportable, and the “Trust Funds” will continue to be raidable. Given the two scenarios that the OACT provided, I don’t know if the solvency guarantee is necessary.

April 29, 2010

Hot Air moving on up

by @ 20:24. Filed under Miscellaneous.

Tonight is the big night that Hot Air moves onto Salem’s servers. Since they don’t feel like leaving any comment behind, they’ll be locking things down momentarily.

After that’s done, and the rather-massive database is saved, they’ll copy everything over to the new database and begin the process of having all the Domain Name Servers update. That means that you might see everything on the new server tonight, or you might not. That depends on your ISP.

If you still are not seeing anything new there tomorrow afternoon…

  1. Clear your browser’s cache
  2. Flush your computer’s DNS records (I can’t speak for MacOS/Linux/earlier versions of Windows, but later versions of Windows, open up a command-prompt window type ipconfig /flushdns, hit enter, and then close the command-prompt).
  3. Tell your ISP to update their DNS servers.
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