No Runny Eggs

I know you’re all enjoying the daily dole of the NRE awards.  Steve, I and others worked hard last week on those so that we could take a little time off over this weekend.  Of course, I could only use that excuse if I actually wrote on a regular basis…but that’s a separate issue.

I’m seeing a bunch of stuff flying around the internet about the RNC chair race.  The “stuff” mostly surrounds Reince Priebus and issues about his law firm and whether they make him a RINO and therefore unfit to serve as RNC chair.

Let me first provide full disclosure:

1.  I think Michael Steele has been the worst chair in some time.  I don’t believe he is a conservative by any definition.  I do suspect he is a closet racist or at the least, carries a huge chip on his shoulder regarding the color his skin happens to be.

2.  While I blog here at NRE, I’m not a Wisconsinite.  I’m from Minnesota Kentucky and am not a homer on this one.

3.  I don’t know, or have even heard of Reince Preibus prior to a couple of weeks ago.  I have no idea what he is about personally.  Heck, I don’t even know how to pronounce his name!

Two issues have been raised against Mr. Preibus, suggesting that these make him unfit for chair:

1.  That his law firm has taken the position that Placebocare is constitutional.

2.  That he personally, and his law firm generally, solicited clients to assist with securing various funding from the stimulus bill.

As to the first issue.  Let’s assume his firm has taken the position that Placebocare is constitutional.  Preibus’ firm has over 200 attorneys.  A firm of that size is not going to serve clients with a singular political ideology,  In fact, it would not be uncommon for that firm to have argued both sides of the same argument in different cases with different attorneys.

Some have argued that because Preibus is a “partner,” that he is involved with determining what cases are taken and must concur with the firm’s stance with regard to Placebocare being constitutional.  I cruised the firm’s website and noted that Preibus is NOT on the management committee.  While he certainly would have latitude in determining cases he was involved with, I can’t see anything on the surface that would suggest he is dictating the firm’s direction.

As I look at the firm’s website, I note that they do patent work for green technologies.  I assume that this would disqualify Preibus also because all green technologies are bad?  Oh, even worse, they have on their site that they have achieved “Green Master Status!”  Well, we know this is just code for being a lefty sympathizer!

Folks, I’ve worked for some companies that were pretty liberal in their ideologies (AT&T and domestic partner rights anyone?).  There was nothing about those engagements that made me a RINO.  Heck, there were a number of folks who moved further right in their beliefs as I worked along side them.  My point is that where a person works and what that company believes does not have to be a reflection of the individual’s belief.

The second issue is even more ludicrous.  Again, let’s assume that Preibus did solicit clients to secure stimulus funds?  So what? 

Mrs. Shoe and I tithe.  While we don’t believe the Bible dictates that we do so, we do believe it to be an appropriate way to recognize that what we have received is a gift from God.  Our tithing and our other charitable contributions, have nothing to do with the fact that we are able to deduct these contributions on our income taxes.  In fact, I prefer a flat tax where no deductions are granted. Would the people who suggest that Preibus shouldn’t solicit work for a legal government program call me a hypocrite for taking a charitable deduction on my taxes?

There is a difference between working within the law to find economic advantages for yourself or your company and advocating for the policy in the first place.  I have no problem with Preibus helping his clients get government money, no different than I have no problem with people taking every legal tax advantage they can; it’s the law.  I would have a problem if Preibus had been lobbying for the passage of the stimulus bill but I don’t see any evidence of that.

In short, I don’t know if Preibus is the right person or not for the RNC chair.  As I said, I don’t know anything about the man’s abilities or ideologies.  The problem is that most of the people making the above accusations about Preibus are in the same boat as I am regarding his abilities and true ideologies.  Unfortunately, that’s not slowing them down.  I wonder why? 

What I do know about Preibus is that he is the GOP chair in Wisconsin.  I also know that Wisconsin just evicted one of the furthest left Senators from the Senate.  Wisconsin also elected a Republican Governor and made substantial GOP strides in both of the State’s legislative bodies.  Of course, it is possible that like his law firm’s support of Placebocare, there is no correlation between Preibus’ involvement and the election results in WI.  If I were looking to vote, I’d want to get the facts on both of those issues. 

The case against Preibus seems to be built on second hand or circumstantial versus first hand knowledge.  Why do you suppose that is?  Is it possible that inuendo rather than truth, better fits the accuser’s agenda?

We now return you to your regularly scheduled NRE awards!

It’s hard to know exactly how to respond to the “compromise” reached by Obama and the Republicans on extending the current tax rates.  On the one hand, it’s a lot of fun watching the lefties lose all hope and be willing to vote to change Obama.  In some ways, I fee sorry for them.  Their looks are probably similar to the looks many of us conservatives had as Bush talked about immigration amnesty or nominated Harriet Miers to the Supreme Court.  However, my pity doesn’t prevent me from wanting to get one of those big, refillable buckets of popcorn and watching the event.  Heck, I’ve even contemplated what conflagration grenade Boehner or McConnell could toss in so that we could watch a full meltdown!

On the other hand I think, “what a missed opportunity!”  Obama was in a no win situation.  He knew that if he didn’t get a deal done now, the new Congress would have enough votes and public support, to extend the rates, perhaps permanently.  In that case, he would have the choice of vetoing the bill and dealing with that public relations mess or signing it and putting a permanent “don’t mind me” stamp on his forehead.  For that reason, I am challenged by the Republicans agreement to extend the unemployment benefits.  It’s going to be a long two years if this is how Boehner and McConnell do political calculating.

I don’t know what the exact reason was; attempt to gain favor with Obama, concern about public relations or sheer miscalculation but the Republicans could have gotten their tax rate extension with nothing added to it.  In fact, if Obama had pressed the issue of the unemployment benefits and assuming that the Republicans weren’t willing to face the stand off for principle, they should have made a counter offer.  In exchange for the increased unemployment, Obama would immediately remove all drilling moratoriums he had put in place.  The Republicans explanation, after all of the sputtering, would be that the unemployment extension was unfunded.  Nancy Pelosi herself has been telling us for two years how we should work on a “pay-go” basis.  While the best situation would have been to cut spending in the budget so the benefits would be deficit neutral, the second best option would be to remove the moratoriums which would have multiple benefits.  First, it would actually do something to increase employment, as opposed to the nothing but talk that Obama does about the topic.  Second, if you haven’t noticed, oil and gas prices have been going up again.  Folks, we haven’t even seen the US with much more then a faint economic pulse.  If/when the economy becomes a last mile of a marathon, heart pounding rate, the demand for oil is going to push gas well past the $4 mark.  Oh, and more expensive energy means more expensive food and more expensive other things.

The Republicans could have gotten more, much more for their deal.  That said, I hear the microwave beeping.  I think my first bucket of popcorn is ready.  Who’s head would you bet will explode first?

I wasn’t able to stay up for all of the fun last night. East coast living isn’t very conducive to following west coast politics.

Going into the elections I was touting 60+ House seats and a Senate that would be 51/49 but unsure of which party would have 51. It looks like my House prediction will hold but my Senate prediction will fall 1 or 2 seats short. All in all, not a bad night.

While the euphoria of the night is still hanging on me I think it’s worth jotting down a few thoughts about what we learned last night.

• I don’t have the hard data but it struck me that there were numerous House Democrats turned out last night who voted against health care before they voted for it.  I don’t think there is any doubt that part of the election results was a repudiation of the Obamacare bill and the egotistical hubris that Congress showed in ignoring their constituents and passing it despite overwhelming public opposition
• Good, conservative candidates can win – OK, admittedly Rubio was easy (not that he had it easy) because he was a nearly perfect candidate who ran a nearly perfect campaign.  However, Rand Paul certainly wasn’t that.  Paul had the family name to get beyond and also his own fumbles i.e. saying he would eliminate farm subsidies for large corporations and then naming large, small farmer owned cooperatives as examples.  I don’t think this is a one time event.  I hope the Republican establishment had their eyes opened a bit and cast their net further than the “good ol’ boys club” they fish from for candidates.
• On the flip side, we’ve also learned that flawed candidates are flawed candidates.  If there was ever a Senator more despised by his constituents, I can’t think of it.  Harry Reid was ripe for being picked off.  Harry Reid should have been picked off.  Except for the flawed candidate in Sharron Angle, Harry Reid might have picked off.  Am I arguing that Angle shouldn’t have run?  No, that’s Monday morning quarterbacking and I’ll leave that to you Packers folks who can’t get past the whole Favre thing :).  No, what I’m suggesting is that with the results of this election, the Tea Party has established some legitimate, political credibility.  Like all newbies, the Tea Party needs to learn from their actions and improve.  With their success, they should have a much better time of attracting better, stronger, conservative candidates.  The Tea Party needs to improve on their candidate selection and they will. O’Donnell was also a flawed candidate.
• While there is a growing portion of the nation that is understanding the Country’s economic reality, there is still a large portion that doesn’t.  Long time Dems were turned out in House seat after House seat.  Names like Skelton and Oberstar, fixtures in the House, will not have thier cushy jobs come January.  On the other hand, California, what the hell?  California reelects a failed Governor and a failed leftist Senator. I think it’s time for the big quake that separates California from the rest of us. California and its government unions, will be a drain on the rest of the country for decades to come.
• Incumbency is a powerful force and like gravity, requires an amazing amount of energy to overcome.  We’ve already talked aobut Harry Reid winning so I won’t rehash that one.  However, it looks like Alaska will retain their back stabbing Senator as well.  It’s harder to call what happened in AK.  I suspect that once all is reviewed, there is a combination of some flaws in Miller and some incumbency benefit.  I also think (I can’t prove a bit of this) that the vote had at least a tinge of anti Palin response.  I say this because Palin always was an outsider in the R’s of Alaska and she drove that stake home with her support of Miller.  There is a big rift in the R party in Alaska and I think the establishment won out this time.

Well, it’s the morning after and I’m sure there are Democrats who feel like their world has just been turned upside down.  For those folks and others, I leave you with this:

Arianna Huffington says the upcoming election results does not mean America is rejecting Democrats.

You mean like Obama’s election wasn’t a mandate?

I shared with you a week ago that Barbara Ma’am Boxer’s success was likely tied to the success of Proposition 19, the pot legalization referendum. In what will likely be the last poll on the Proposition, The Field Poll shows mixed results for California.

Indeed, Proposition 19 now looks like it will go down in defeat. At least via a referendum, there will be no pot legalization in California. I’m sure that will be a relief to President Obama who could have been caught between popular support for weed and his ego crying “I’m the law here!” Unfortunately, it doesn’t look like Proposition 19 is going to go down by a wide enough margin to benefit America as a whole.

The most recent polling on the Boxer/Fiorina race was done by Rasmussen. The poll showed Boxer with a 3 point lead but still within the margin of error. The most recent Rasmussen poll shows little change from a poll by Rasmussen a week prior and from SurveyUSA about 10 days ago. Both of these earlier polls also had Boxer in low, single digit leads.

In looking at the partisan splits, I see the same questions and issues regarding the California polls that have been raised elsewhere; will the turn outs look like previous elections or will it look like something different?

in 2008, the California partisan split was 30% Republican, 42% Democrat and 28% Independent. The Field Poll split supposed a turnout of R, D, I as 39%, 44% and 17% respectively. Finally, the SurveyUSA poll show the split as 34%, 42% 21%.

Given the “historical” nature of the 2008 election (I kid you not, I heard an African American describe the reason for his Obama vote that way on Hannity the other night), it would seem like a larger Dem turnout this year would be unlikely. Of course, the pot proponents will argue that the turnout is due to the referendum. However, I find it hard to believe that the pot referendum would pull a greater percentage of Dems than the Gay Marriage referendum combined with “historical” voting opportunities.

If I had to guess, and this is only a gut, I believe that both Field Poll and Survey USA have Dems over represented in their polls, that’s the good news. The bad news is that even if I adjust the Dems back to the party split of 41% of the 2006 race, the Senate race does not tip toward Fiorina.

It looks to me like the only way for Fiorina to win is if the Republicans and Independents out GOTV the Dems. How will we know? The Dems, and especially the young Dems, are strongly tied to support of the Pot Proposition. If you see reports on election night that Proposition 19 is going down by at least 10% it means the potheads haven’t turned out or that those opposed to the referendum have overwhelmed those who support the referendum. In either event, 10% will be the smoke signal to indicate whether Ma’am Boxer will return for another session or whether California will join the rest of the Union and send President Obama a rebuke “from sea to shining sea!”

Vice President Biden was at it again today.

He’s been out stumping for a whole host of Democrat candidates. Today, while spreading propaganda for Democrat Tim Bishop, Biden told the audience:

“Every single great idea that has marked the 21st century, the 20th century and the 19th century has required government vision and government incentive,”

Biden has proven himself to be the Master of Gaffe. Combine that with his ability to speak completely ignorant of facts of any kind and in a way, he’s become boring. I mean, gaffes are funny when you know that the person know better than the words that just came out of their mouth. In Biden’s case, I no longer believe that any of his verbal gaffes are unintentional. I’m more inclined to believe that Biden is willfully ignorant of the facts of the world around him.

When read the above quote, my initial reaction was to put up a post describing how Biden’s comment was typical of leftists who think the world can’t accomplish anything without Mama Government telling it to. I’d then follow that with a list of inventions that prove Biden ignorant. Instead, I think a two word answer will suffice to respond to Biden:

Liquid Paper

The race between Barbara “Maam” Boxer and Carly Fiorina is one the key Senate “toss up” races.  With a couple of exceptions, the polls over the past couple of weekshave shown “Maam” up by a couple of points but with Fiorina within the margin of error. While the Senate race is the one that has the most national visibility, it’s possible that a separate vote by Californians is the one that will ultimately determine who controls the Senate.

One of California’s legendary Propositions is on the ballot a week from Tuesday. Proposition 19 would allow the legal growing of up to 25 sq. ft. of marijuana. It would also make it legal to posses up to one ounce of marijuana. In a poll released last Tuesday, SurveryUSAfound an interesting correlation between those supporting Proposition 19 and those supporting Barbara “Maam” Boxer. According to SurveyUSA, there is a strong correlation between those supporting the legalization of marijuana and those supporting Maam. I know, who’d of thunk it?

There is an old adage that says that a person’s greatest strength is also their greatest weakness. This adage may be sage for Maam Boxer. While Boxer has strong support from those supporting Proposition 19 and Proposition 19 had originally had strong support, that support looks to be waning as election day draws near.

In its report, SurveyUSA shows that support for Proposition 19 may have reached its apex with “no” reported as moving to 44%. While I generally respect SurveyUSA’s polling, they may be a ways off on this issue. Numerous polls, including this recent one reported by the LA Times, have “No” polling dramatically higher than 44%. The LA Times poll has “No” at 51% and growing. Worse, when the poll details are reviewed, supporters of Proposition 19 come from younger voters who are not expected to make up nearly the voting population of 2010 that they made up in 2008.

Maam Boxer’s ability to return to Washington and bristle against military personnel appears to be largely tied to the energy of young weed smokers. My observation has been that smoking weed doesn’t tend to increase an individual’s motivation. In fact, I typically see a definite laxness amongst potheads.

If I were Maam Boxer, I don’t know that I’d be sleeping very well these days. Even though the potheads who will likely determine her future, probably are. Maybe they’ll over sleep next Tuesday!

I’ve been waiting for this moment for several weeks.

Real Clear Politics keeps tabs on polls of races across the country.  they accumulate the poll results and publish average results for each of the races.  The “average” results help to keep either party from hanging hope on one or two outlier polls, avoiding reality.  Upon completing the averages for individual polls, RCP puts races into one of seven categories ranging from safe Democrat to safe Republican.  They also have some number of races that are within the margin of error and thus listed as “toss ups”.

For the past several weeks RCP has shown enough races in the Democrat categories that when added to the toss ups, there was a number that still had the potential to outweigh the anticipated Republican seats. However, with this morning’s updates, that is no longer the case.

As of this morning, RCP now has 178 seats in the Democrat category, 220 in the Republican category and 37 in toss ups. As of this morning, according to RCP, there is no way, even if they win all of the toss ups, that the Democrats can retain the House. This is all VERY good news for Republicans!

As if the above wasn’t bad enough, RCP has even worse news for Democrats. In the past 7 days, RCP has changed the category of 27 House races. Of those races, all but 2 have moved the direction of Republicans! Also in those 27 races are 4 races that have been moved from Likely to just Leans Democrat. Included in this last number is MN8 which is the district of Jim Oberstar a life long fixture of the House and a poster child for all a requirement for term limits.

As recent as yesterday, Democrat leadership had continued to spout irrational nonsense about Nancy Pelosi being speaker again next year. To any thinking individual, these statements have been obviously wrong for some time and make the speaker appear ignorant or of the belief that the listener is. Nancy Pelosi herself has been telling people that she would retain the House although recently, she had been building a stepping off point by intimating that she wouldn’t run for Speaker again even if the Dems retained the House.

With today’s news, we are happily saving Pelosi from the angst of deciding whether to run again or not. As of this morning, we can all say to Nancy Pelosi:

“You are the weakest link. Goodbye!”