Rasmussen Reports released its monthly look-in at the Senate and governor’s races, both taken June 21. The news isn’t good for the Democrats, despite President Obama once again having a significantly higher approval rating in Wisconsin (49% approve/51% disapprove/Approval Index -13) than nationally (45% approve/55% disapprove/Approval Index -15), and the Democrat Party of Wisconsin convention happening between the May and June surveys.
First, Ron Johnson halved Russ Feingold’s insignificant May lead, and now trails 46% to 45%. Feingold’s smears and distortions aren’t exactly working, as Johnson’s favorables are now at 36% approve/30% disapprove/”Passion” Index +8, compared to 32% approve/25% disapprove/”Passion” Index +6, while Feingold’s favorables dipped to 52% favorable (down 1 point from May)/45% unfavorable (up 1 point from May)/”Passion” Index of 0 (down 6 points from May).
Meanwhile, Dave Westlake has made some hay, and is far closer than he’s ever been, trailing 47%-41%. The news isn’t all good for Westlake, because his unfavorables went up dramatically from 26% overall to 32% overall, with the “Passion” Index slipping from -3 to -4.
Over in the governor’s race, somebody had better put a notice on a milk carton for Tom Barrett. He has dropped to an 8-point deficit against both Scott Walker (49%-41%) and Mark Neumann (47%-39%). That 8-point lead by Neumann is his largest, with Walker’s 49% tying his highest percentage total (previously done in February, when he led Barrett 49%-40%) and Neumann’s 47% setting a new high.
One thing I wish Rasmussen did polling for was the primary election. The Walker campaign thoughtfully included some of the internals in a comparison between Walker and Neumann, and it shows a hard road for Neumann. Among the four categories of voters generally considered to be participants in the Republican primary, “Republicans” (note for the out-of-state crowd, there is no party registration, but one cannot vote in more than one party’s primary), independents, conservatives, and Tea Party, Walker is viewed significantly more favorably than Neumann. Among the Tea Party crowd, the Walker split is 86% favorable/8% unfavorable while the Neumann split is 71% favorable/19% unfavorable. Among conservatives, the Walker split is 79% favorable/14% unfavorable while the Neumann split is 64% favorable/22% unfavorable. Among independents, the Walker split is 58% favorable/24% unfavorable while the Neumann split is 51% favorable/30% unfavorable. Among Republicans, the Walker split is 86% favorable/11% unfavorable while the Neumann split is 70% favorable/20% unfavorable.
Unless Neumann is counting on a significant Democrat/liberal cross-over, or a major gaffe by Walker, I don’t see how he gets the nomination.
