Since I’m not running CoverItLive (it was too late to get it started), do scroll down and hit refresh for updates. The last one went up at 12:12 12:23 am 5/7/2008.
Guess I’m taking over for ST and Ed/Allahpundit. I don’t feel like firing up CoverItLive, but I’ve got my Mountain Dew, and a quick recap:
– With 86% in, Clinton’s up 560,720 to 521,415.
– They’re hand-counting about 11,000 ballots in Lake County (the county closest to Chicago), so no results from them yet.
– There’s also no results from Union County in east-central Indiana, which is Clinton country.
– Obama and CBS have conceded Indiana to Clinton, but nobody else is calling it.
10:09 pm – For those thinking that Lake could deliver the state for Obama, I’m estimating he’ll need about 38,000 votes. Ed noted in the Hot Air live thread that there were about 110,000 votes for Kerry in 2004, so if that’s the base, Obama would need about a 35-point win. The primary numbers are actually running about 30% higher than that statewide, so there’s likely about 143,000 votes out there. That would suggest he would need a 27-point win.
10:21 pm – Karl Rove just ripped Hillary for having a red-faced Bill out there. I guess it has to be said…”Rove you magnificent bastard! Hill should’ve read your book!”
Lead’s now 568,039-528,432, 87% in. Projected pre-Lake (and pre-Union County) lead still holding within a couple hundred.
10:39 pm – Lead’s down to 574,643-536,332, 88% reporting. The memes are already starting for Clinton to drop. I say, “No sleep ’till Denver!”
We’re down to 8 counties with partial or no results:
Lake – no results
Union – no results
Porter (81% in) – Clinton up approximately 16,900-12,300
Laporte (88% in) – Clinton up approximately 13,100-12,100
Hamilton (99% in) – Obama up approximately 25,300-16,500
Hancock (98% in) – Clinton up approximately 6,100-4,100
Marion (98% in) – Obama up approximately 121,900-60,200
Monroe (67% in) – Obama up approximately 8,900-4,600
10:50 pm – Statewide, with 91% in, it’s 587,973-566,988 Clinton. That’s Lake County’s Gary’s effect (that’s from CNN); with 28% in Lake County, it’s 27,991-9,470 in Obama’s favor. Porter’s also all in.
11:01 pm – It’s 588,106-567,104 Clinton. American Pundit is also burning the midnight oil (literally).
11:09 pm – Wolf Blitzer really laid into the Hammond mayor (Clinton supporter) for Lake County’s refusal to release partial results. Somehow I doubt CNN will be joining the Drop Hill meme.
Meanwhile, Laporte finished reporting, Clinton up statewide 588,823-568,156 (92% reporting). Still no results from Union County.
11:18 pm – No new numbers, but some back-of-the-envelope math of what’s still left to be picked up in the other counties reporting partial results:
– Hamilton (99% in) – Obama should pick up about 100 votes
– Hancock (97% in) – Clinton should pick up about 100 votes
– Marion (98% in) – Obama should pick up about 1,300 votes
– Monroe (67% in) – Obama should pick up about 2,100 votes
Union County, which still isn’t reporting, should get Clinton about 2,000 net. That would cut Clinton’s statewide lead to under 20,000, which would give the state to Obama if Lake matches Marion (Indianapolis). Lake is the second-most-populous county behind Marion, and is essentially a suburb of Chicago.
11:22 pm – Er, make that even approaches Marion. The rest of the county would need to go 60-40 Obama to put it in the margin of error.
American Pundit, who’s kept an eye on Fox, notes that 6,000 absentee ballots may not be counted tonight. Oh brother.
11:27 pm – Guess I better listen to Fox rather than the Clinton News Network (where a flack is trying to spin) – they’re reporting that Clinton has canceled her morning appearances (thanks again, AmerPundit).
11:37 pm – More numbers from both Lake and Monroe Counties. Clinton’s lead is now 606,497-589,888 with 95% reporting. Will be back with analysis shortly.
11:53 pm – Bear in mind that there are potentially 6,000 absentee ballots that won’t be counted tonight. The freshly-reporting portion of Lake County went 55-45 Obama, putting the county thus far at 65-35 Obama. If the rest of the county reports the way the fresh numbers came in, Clinton should have about a 10,000-vote win. If they report the way the county overall reports, it should be about a 2,000-vote win for Obama.
AmerPundit notes that it came from Merrilville and part of Munster along with the rest of Gary, so those more-familiar with the lay of the land can tell me which way the wind’s blowing.
11:54 pm – Make that 7,000 absentee ballots in Lake County (thanks again, AmerPundit). Also, Monroe County is 98% in.
12:02 am 5/7/2007 (assume the new date) – The Clinton News Network just got done grilling the mayor of Gary (an Obama superdelegate). Also, it’s all-but-official in North Carolina – Obama took it 56.7%-41.9% with 99% reporting.
12:06 am – This is just too rich; the Hammond mayor (Clinton supporter) accusing Lake County election officials of hanky-panky on CNN. Reap what you sow…. AP, you getting this?
12:12 am – Time’s almost out for Obama to declare a sweep. Almost all of Lake is in, and the statewide Clinton lead is now 637,389-615,370. Lake’s at 98% and Obama’s lead is 66,265-53,310.
CNN calling it for Clinton. So is Fox, ABC and NBC. Union County, which won’t report until 2 am, won’t matter.
Good night, good fight.
12:23 am – Meh; call me a pol. CNN got the numbers out of Union, which Clinton won 803-383 (everybody reporting). Statewide, it’s Clinton up 638,192-615,753.
NOW I’m history.
