(H/T – The Old Pooners Facebook Group, specifically Christopher Irvine)
Nile Gardiner of The Telegraph outlined the latest bout of words between Great Britain and Argentina over the Falkland Islands. The gang has kicked around the possibility of it going beyond words off and on for a while, and given at least some of them are/were naval operators, they’re a lot better at it than I am.
If memory serves, both the Royal Navy and the Argentine armed forces have atrophied since 1982, though the RN has really suffered. Unless the RAF figures out a way to get either the Tornado or Typhoon 8,000 miles in number before the Argentines close the airfields (and then have the RN get reloads down), the Brits won’t have any air cover. On the other hand, with a fair bit of warning, a British sub could put a real crimp in the ability of the Argentine Navy to actually land any troops given they have exactly 1 troop carrier and 4 destroyers.
The big question is how much support the US would give Britain, if any in this scenario. Back in 1982, the US gave Britain significant off-battlefield logistical support once the Argentines decided to not negotiate.