As surely as rain follows an early-morning rainbow here in Wisconsin, Rasmussen Reports has released its post-primary gubernatorial poll shortly after it released its Senate one, and Scott Walker now leads Tom Barrett 51%-43% with leaners included (for the first time in the cycle) and 50%-43% without leaners. That was a significant improvement over the 47%-44% lead Walker had at the end of August.
Normally, that would be attributed to a post-primary bounce for Walker, who actually had a semi-competitive primary against Mark Neumann (with Scott Paterick doing essentially nothing) while Barrett had only token opposition from Tim John. However, given the ease with which Walker won the primary and the history of 7-to-9-point leads Walker enjoyed throughout the year, Rasmussen Reports decided to restore the “Leans Republican” status the race had prior to the end of August. They did not do a similar move in the Wisconsin Senate race despite the first significant lead for Ron Johnson.
On the favorability front, both Walker and Barrett improved from late-August. Walker’s favorables are now 58% favorable (up 2 points)/36% unfavorable (unchanged)/Favorability Index (strong favorable less strong unfavorable) +12 (up 4 points). Barrett’s favorables are now 52% favorable (up 7 points)/43% unfavorable (down 4 points)/Favorability Index +2 (up 7 points, and the first positive since mid-July).
There is a statistic those warring over the results of the Delaware Senate primary should take note of – he holds 96% of Republicans in this poll back Walker, compared to a “high 80s” in late August. In fact, that is the major source of Walker’s gain; he holds a 24-point lead among independents (roughly equal to late-August and maybe a bit higher), and Barrett holds 86% of the Democrats (again, roughly equal to late-August and maybe a bit lower).
