Ron Johnson, president of Pacur Inc., has announced his candidacy for the Republican nomination for United States Senate. My initial thoughts are that he is a good person, but that there are now too many people in the primary, especially considering a former Doyle cabinet member who just can’t let go of his liberal views is one of those four.
No Runny Eggs
The repository of one hard-boiled egg from the south suburbs of Milwaukee, Wisconsin (and the occassional guest-blogger). The ramblings within may or may not offend, shock and awe you, but they are what I (or my guest-bloggers) think.
Archive for May, 2010
May 17, 2010
Coming Soon to a State Near You…The Third World
According to the CMA Soverign Risk Monitor, California is perceived to be the eight most likely government to default on their debt. While countries like Venezuela and Argentina are worse, Iraq with it’s continuing challenges of maintaining a stable government, is actually ranked better.
Meanwhile, California is wrestling with a $19.1 B as in Billion shortfall. Arnold, am I political fish or fowl, Schwarzenegger, has decided he’s fish in this debate and has called for an end to the California welfare system. In what has become expected, trite and completely in line with leadership shown in Washington, the Democrats, who control both houses in California, have said, “nope” and are chasing a plan to increase taxes.
In what has become a rare event, I applaud Schwarzenegger for calling out reality on this topic. California has been one of the hardest hit states during this recession. Increasing taxes will not only not close the budget gap but will exacerbate the economic challenges, likely making anywhere in Michigan a more appealing place for business development. Where I disagree wtih Arnold is that he continues to attempt to be a moderate and walk both sides of the fence.
Less than a week ago, Arnold stuck his nose into Arizona’s business. He derided the recently passed immigration laws and joked that he would likely be deported under the new Arizona law.
Estimates have California with over 2 million illegal immigrants, over twice the number of the next largest illegal population estimated in Texas. While you may say, “yeah, but they have a lot of other people,” you’d be right. But, that estimate also says that over 6 out of every 100 people are illegal immigrants in CA and the is over 3 times the national average.
Depending upon the study you choose to use, illegal immigrants cost the country somewhere between $40 and $80 billion each year. While the estimates I used earlier don’t reflect the total numbers of illegals believed to be in the US, it does likely represent the distribution across the states. That estimate showed that approximately 1/3 of the illegal immigrants in the US were in California. Let’s see…1/3 of $40 billion is about $13.3B. 1/3 of $80 billion is about $27 billion.
A quick suggestion for you Arnold, if you want to deal with your budget problem deal with the problem and not the symptom. If you want to fix the budget via an overhaul of the welfare system, you should start by fixing the problem that is causing your welfare problem to be so big…Illegal Immigration. An apology to the people of the State of Arizona would be a good place to start!
May 13, 2010
That $83 billion April deficit is worse than you think
If you pay attention to financial news, you probably know the federal government ran a $82.7 billion deficit in the month of April. As JammieWearingFool notes, it’s a record-setting 19th consecutive month of monthly deficits, and only the 13th of the past 56 Aprils to post a montly deficit.
Before I get to the “how much worse”, I do have to note that the government did “accelerate” some payments from May 1 to April 30. However, that is only somewhere south of $19 billion in additional outlays, and only reduces the “natural” monthly deficit to $64 billion (give or take a couple billion).
The first two parts of the “how much worse is it” comes from Tom Blumer. Do you remember what I said about April historically being a surplus month for the feds? In April 2007, the monthly surplus was $178 billion, and in April 2008, the monthly surplus was $159 billion. Compare that to the $21 billion deficit in April 2009 and this April’s $83 billion deficit.
That flows into the second part from Tom – tax revenues are still cratering, both from before the start of The Great Recession (soon to be named The Greatest Depression) and from last year. Total federal receipts for April are down 36.1% from April 2007, and down 7.9% from April 2009.
On that note, the best instantaneous measure of income generation is, at least until the effects of PlaceboCare distort it, the portion of the FICA/SECA tax that goes to the Hospital Insurance portion of Medicare. It taxes every dollar earned at the same percentage, and despite an extra Friday, the FICA (withheld) take was 2.6% lower in April 2010 than it was in April 2009, and the SECA (that’s from the first-quarter 2010 quarterly estimated payments plus any unpaid portion from 2009) take was 4.0% lower in April 2010 than it was in 2009. The combined drop from April 2009 to April 2010 is 3.0%. If this is a “recovery”, then it’s not only a jobless one, but a payless one.
The third part comes from Karl Denninger via Dad29. The national debt increased not by $83 billion, but by $175 billion. Karl caught the usual suspect – the various “trust funds” buying more Treasuries.
There, however, is a second part, noted by Fox Business at the time and fallen into the memory hole. Back in February, the Treasury announced it was “recapitalizing” something called the Supplementary Financing Program. It was originally a “temporary” infusion of $300 billion of cash from the Treasury to the Federal Reserve back in September 2008 (that’s right, pre-TARP) to allow the Federal Reserve to do stuff like prop up AIG. Since that cash was funded with Treasury securities, it became a “victim” of the bump-up against the debt ceiling, and had dropped to $5 billion by February. Since Timothy “TurboTax” Geithner, the architect of the SFP when he was head of the New York Federal Reserve, liked the no-strings-attached slush fund so much, as soon as the debt ceiling was raised, he decided to bring it back to $200 billion between the end of February and the end of April. I wonder who the next AIG/GM is – the Communists in the Executive Branch are already planning for their next corporate takeover.
The “cute” trick is that while all that money came from the sale of bonds and remains there because said bonds are being rolled over, since it’s “cash”, the amount available to the Federal Reserve is counted as part of the Treasury’s “Operating Cash” and thus offsets the debt issued to create it. Specifically for April, $75 billion went out the door that way.
Open Thread Thursday – Who’ll stop the rain?
Fortunately, it’s not nearly as bad as Nashville the other weekend, but it’s still wet.
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=713eOEQmOA0[/youtube]
I probably should’ve declared Open Thread Week because I’ve been too far out of it, but it’s because I’ve been so far out of it that I didn’t do that. Still, I’ve got a couple things on the burner, including the first negative (at least tentatively) April for Social Security’s Disability Insurance “Trust Fund” since monthly records were kept, the speed with which the DPW “deconflicted” the 7th Congressional District with an anointed candidate, and the support for identity and vote theft by the Government “Accountability” Board (in Soviet Wisconsin, government votes for you).
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May 11, 2010
Drinking Right – the drowning version
This is the Emergency Blogging System. It has been activated because Steve is as wet as a drowned rat.
There are only two more fully-smoked Drinking Rights left before the smokers get kicked to the curb. Tonight is one of them. Come on down to Papa’s Social Club, 7718 W Burleigh in Milwaukee, at 7 pm to enjoy good drinks and good company. If you’re worried about drowning, the National Weather Service is saying the rain should be pretty much over by 7.
This concludes this broadcast of the Emergency Blogging System.
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May 10, 2010
Well, Which Is It?
In his commencement address, Sunday, at Hampton University, Virginia, President Obama told the students that information and acting upon that information, was the key to a successful democracy:
“What Jefferson recognized… that in the long run, their improbable experiment — called America — wouldn’t work if its citizens were uninformed, if its citizens were apathetic, if its citizens checked out, and left democracy to those who didn’t have the best interests of all the people at heart.
“It could only work if each of us stayed informed and engaged, if we held our government accountable, if we fulfilled the obligations of citizenship.”
In what is as rare as Robert Gibbs’ ability to provide a lucid and logical explanation as to what the administration’s policy on terror man made events is, I agree with President Obama.
As you read stories of our country’s founding, you will find that even then, with the relatively rudimentary communication tools, at least as compared to today, information and debates about that information were key to the success of nearly every endeavor of the nation. Most especially one can see the import that information and debate had on the nation’s founding if you study any of the history of the creation and ratification of the Constitution.
Flash forward to today and you see information having the same place as the corner stone in democracy. While the tools for disseminating it have changed, information and the debate of information, remains the key to our democracy. One only need look at “leaders” like Hugo Chavez and how they all attempt to control the flow of information as one of their first acts, to understand how important information flow is to a free people. Can anyone imagine how a movement without structure could have the impact that the tea party is having, if it didn’t have access to and the means to distribute information in a free and rapid fashion?
Earlier in his speech, President Obama complained about
arguments, some of which don’t always rank all that high on the truth meter.
He added:
With iPods and iPads and Xboxes and PlayStations, — none of which I know how to work — information becomes a distraction, a diversion, a form of entertainment, rather than a tool of empowerment, rather than the means of emancipation.
Really? Information becomes a distraction? I guess that might be true if your goal was not debate but to dictate “truth” and “fact” as you want it to be seen. In that case, conflicting information would certainly be a “distraction.” However, in any honest assessment of an issue, debate, which nearly by definition, means disagreement is the best way to find answers. Not to go all Biblical on you this early in the week but have you never heard of iron sharpening iron?
Unfortunately, with a political life that was forged in Chicago, President Obama is used to avoiding debate and only hearing the comforting, echoing applause of support for every socialist idea he puts forth. “Information” in President Obama’s world is just one more distraction on his way to a “transformed” America.
One last thought…in light of his comments and his knock on the newest information and technology gadgets, has anyone informed the President that we are an information age economy? Oh, my mistake, I was assuming for a moment that a robust economy was something that the President would want.
May 7, 2010
Another Right Wing News blog temperature check – Immigration edition
Once again, John Hawkins provided an outlet for some of the most influential bloggers on the right side of the blogosphere, as well as Shoebox and me, to weigh in on the issues of the day. This time, the poll concerns immigration. Let’s run through the questions and answers (my choices underlined):
- Do you approve of Arizona’s new immigration law? (49 votes yes, 1 vote no) -Arizona has pretty much become the crime state of the union thanks to Mexican drug gangs, most of whom are illegal aliens.
- Would you like to see your state implement something like Arizona’s new immigration law? (49 votes yes, 1 vote no) – Since it’s good enough for Arizona, it’s good enough for Wisconsin.
- Do you believe Arizona’s new immigration law constitutes racial profiling or discriminates against Hispanic Americans? (2 votes yes, 47 votes no) – No. The Cliff Notes’ version of what it actually does – It authorizes Arizona law enforcement personnel to check into the immigration status of those already lawfully stopped by them if they have a reasonable suspicion about their residency, requires the various local governments of Arizona to actually enforce the law, and puts the “criminal” in “illegal alien” (both being and hiring). That criminality doesn’t go nearly as far as similar provisions in Mexican law.
- If you had to choose between the following options, which would you prefer? (4 votes comprehensive immigration reform, 46 votes immigration reform that focused on security before addresssing the status of illegals already in the country) – I would actually prefer that the illegals be tossed out as the border is secured, but that’s not the type of “comprehensive immigration reform” that the bipartisan Party-In-Government wants to consider.
- If we implemented comprehensive reform, which of the following best describes what you think would happen? (39 votes illegals would become citizens, but the border wouldn’t be secured, 10 votes illegals would become citizens and the border would be secured) – History is my guide here. It would be a repeat of 1986.
- Do you believe the fence on our southern border will be completed while Barack Obama is in office? (0 votes yes, 50 votes no) – I’m not in the bridge-buying business.
- On the whole, which of these sentiments best describes your thoughts about illegal aliens? (2 votes they make America a better place to live, 47 votes they make America a worse place to live) – Unless they’re completely off-the-grid, they’re committing, at a minimum, identity fraud to remain here.
- On the whole, which of these sentiments best describes your thoughts about legal immigrants? (49 votes they make America a better place to live, 1 vote they make America a worse place to live) – I unabashedly say this, partly because my grandmother came here from Weimar Germany. Those who come here legally tend to be those who want to better themselves in such a way that betterment extends to the larger community.
Besides, where else can you have bratwurst one day, corned beef a second, General Tso’s chicken a third, tacos a fourth, veal parmigiana a fifth, jambalaya a sixth, and shish kabobs a seventh, all made by those who can trace their heritage to the points-of-origin of those foods?
- Do you think the United States is doing a good job of assimilating immigrants? (11 votes yes, 39 votes no) – On the whole, we still are a melting pot. However, the big challenge is not the Hispanic population but the Muslim populatoin.
- Do you believe that taking a tough line on illegal immigration would be winning issue for Republicans in the 2010 election? (43 votes yes, 7 votes no) – I’m not nearly as certain that it is a winning issue as I am that surrendering would guarantee a permanent Democrat/Socialist majority.
May 6, 2010
Boy, This is Getting Old!
I told you so.
I told you so!
I TOLD YOU SO!
Remember back a few weeks when Henry Waxman had gotten all balled up that AT&T, Verizon and a few others had filed SEC documents noting substantial earnings hits due to the passage of Placebocare?
Remember a few days short of a few weeks ago when Henry became annoyed and called the previously mentioned companies in to testify before Congress because he was sure that their filings were in violation of something that Henry held sacred?
Remember a few days closer to now when Henry cancelled the hearings and claimed that the previously mentioned companies had requested the cancellation because they had come to their senses and were willing to no further impugn Henry’s ability to understand the law he voted for?
Remember after that, when I said this:
But, let me ask you this; which of the following two scenarios do you think is most likely?
Scenario A: Companies who paid a bunch of money to consultants and attorneys for the purpose of understanding placebocare. After getting information that said “bleed red ink NOW”, have now come to the conclusion that they really have no conclusion about the future costs of health care and they’re willing to give Congress the benefit of the doubt on Placebocare?
Or
Scenario B: Henry Waxman had no idea what actually is in Placebocare. After getting his bald head pulled tighter than a pair of lycra pants on Michael Moore, he launched his hearings to make sure people didn’t think Democrats were fools. However, following scalp relaxation therapy, Henry learned that not only were the SEC filings proper, they were required by law. Henry also was told that hearings would only serve the purpose of removing any question that the Democrats had/have no idea what is in Placebocare nor the implications of it on the American people and businesses. Henry, wanting no further embarrassment, decided the cancel the hearings.
Yeah, me too!
OK, well, now read this:
Internal documents recently reviewed by Fortune, originally requested by Congress, show what the bill’s critics predicted, and what its champions dreaded: many large companies are examining a course that was heretofore unthinkable, dumping the health care coverage they provide to their workers in exchange for paying penalty fees to the government.
…
The announcements greatly annoyed Representative Henry Waxman, who accused the companies of using the big numbers to exaggerate health care reform’s burden on employers. Waxman, chairman of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, demanded that they turn over their confidential memos, and summoned their top executives for hearings.
But Waxman didn’t simply request documents related to the write down issue. He wanted every document the companies created that discussed what the bill would do to their most uncontrollable expense: healthcare costs.
The request yielded 1,100 pages of documents from four major employers: AT&T, Verizon, Caterpillar and Deere (DE, Fortune 500). No sooner did the Democrats on the Energy Committee read them than they abruptly cancelled the hearings. On April 14, the Committee’s majority staff issued a memo stating that the write downs were “proper and in accordance with SEC rules.” The committee also stated that the memos took a generally sunny view of the new legislation. The documents, said the Democrats’ memo, show that “the overall impact of health reform on large employers could be beneficial.”
Don’t doubt me! I know politicians like I know every succulent tongue tingle of a Tanqueray martini, up, with olives!
‘Nuff said!
Open Thread Thursday – levee-busting edition
There’s a double meaning behind today’s Open Thread Thursday song – the devastating floods in Tennessee, and the departure of Dave Obey from elective politics…
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xbJQT2eDseA[/youtube]
Have at it, folks.
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May 5, 2010
Obey out
I’m sure you’ve heard by now that House Appropriatons Committee chair David Obey (D-Wausau) will not be running for re-election this year. I’ll refer you to Kevin Binversie for the learned explanation of what’s next, but I do have a couple thoughts of my own:
- Even in a district where, outside Obey, Democrats and liberals have averaged double-digit wins over the last 5 years, with only Justices Michael Gableman and Annette Ziegler breaking through the stranglehold, and perhaps especially in a district where the elderly incumbent hasn’t campaigned in a very long time, a credible multi-prong campaign (this from Sean Duffy) can be very effective. Kevin relayed a story about how this cycle was the first time Obey felt the need to put up a campaign website, and somewhere in my stack of stuff is a story of how the Wausaw Democratic Party office didn’t have any Obey signs on display.
While Obey had almost $1.4 million cash on hand at the end of the first quarter and Duffy only had $339,000 cash on hand at the end of the first quarter, individual donations for the first quarter were far closer, with Obey having a $253,000-$210,000 advantage. Obey did have a massive $187,000-$9,300 advantage in party/PAC money for the quarter.
- A huge part of that pressure came from my friends at Americans for Prosperity, especially the Wisconsin chapter, and the members of the Wausau Tea Party. They’ve been targeting Obey for years for his pork-spending ways, going all the way back to 2006.
- That gaping opening has to put a crimp in what appears to be the Democratic Party of Wisconsin’s plans to have no meaningful primaries this year and attempt to take over the Republican Party’s primaries (which would tend to benefit the likes of Tom Barrett as the sole Dem gubernatorial nominee, and those Republicans, or “Republicans” as the case may be, that wouldn’t otherwise have much of a chance to make it to November and give the Dem opponents greater hope – Mark Neumann, Dick Leinenkugel and Dan Mielke). The legislators (the Poltiico story, which is the first link above, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, which is the second link above, and Kevin all mention Senate Majority Leader Russ Decker; Politico also lists several other legislators, some of whom declined in the Journal Sentinel story) are the headliners, but as Kevin points out, they’ve got a “taxing” issue. They also have a visibility issue – a state senator is a virtual unknown to 3/4ths of the district while an assembly member is a virtual unknown to 11/12ths of the district.
Kevin suggests that a mayor/village president would get in, but they would have an even bigger visibility and monetary disadvantage.
It is likely that there will be a multi-person primary. The Republicans need only pick up 4 of 99 seats in the Assembly and/or 2 of 17 seats in the Senate to get a majority, and both Republican candidates for governor continue to lead the presumptive Democrat nominee. Even if the Democrats ultimately lose control of the House of Representatives, a tripling of salary and some propsect of being relevant is likely going to get more than one person to bail on the Legislature. Further, Sen. Julie Lassa, as well as any mayor/village president (or nonpartisan county official) won’t have to choose which office to run for.
Everybody involved has a relatively-short deadline to decide – the filing deadline is July 13.
- The Journal Sentinel brought a blast from the past. Obey completed graduate work in Soviet politics at UW, but rather than collect the master’s degree, he decided to put that knowledge to work. I’m shocked, SHOCKED to find that out.
While the road appears to be clear for Duffy, who not only has some money and national support (notably from Sarah Palin and the House Conservatives Fund), but also significant in-district support (including the district caucus endorsement), there are still a pair of hurdles. The first is Dan Mielke, who got crushed by Obey in 2008 after running unopposed in the primary, and is back for more. Somehow I doubt the rank-and-file is going to go for Mielke in September given the general lack of support, and the likelyhood of a Democratic primary would tend to prevent Operation Chaos.
The second is the aforementioned Democrat tilt of the district. The Cook Report’s D+3 rating actually understates how dominant the Democrats have been. The Government Accountability Board doesn’t have Congressional district-level results prior to the fall 2004 elections (except for the 2000 fall election), but they do have them for the succeeding elections. The recent results (outside the typical Obey whitewashings):
– 2000 Presidential (prior to redistricting) – Gore +1.40 (compared to Gore +0.22 statewide)
– 2000 Senate (prior to redistricting) – Kohl +35.98 (Kohl +24.51 statewide)
– 2004 Presidential – Kerry +0.86 (Kerry +0.38 statewide)
– 2004 Senate – Feingold +14.35 (Feingold +11.24 statewide)
– 2006 Governor – Doyle +12.35 (Doyle +7.39 statewide)
– 2006 Attorney General – Falk +2.60 (Van Hollen +0.42 statewide)
– 2006 Senate – Kohl +41.93 (Kohl +37.85 statewide)
– 2008 Presidential – Obama +13.19 (Obama +13.91 statewide)
In the five recent contested district-wide non-partisan races (3 state Supreme Court races and 2 state superintendent races), only Justices Annette Ziegler (who did significantly worse than she did statewide) and Michael Gableman (who outperformed his statewide numbers because he is from the district and was facing an appointed Justice from Milwaukee who already lost one Supreme Court race) broke through the liberal stranglehold, with 19-26 point advantages for the liberal candidates in the other 3 races.
That said, recent semi-leaked internal polls reportely had Obey in serious trouble against Duffy. Given the entirety of the potential legislative challengers have similar pork-related problems to Obey, I don’t see a “fresh Dem face” doing any better against Duffy.
I would be remiss if I didn’t mention a couple of non-WI07 items. First, Obey looked and sounded quite worn out. That is not unexpected for a 71-year-old who finally fulfilled a lifelong dream to put the US on the road to CubaCare by hook and by crook. On the other hand, Politico noted that, as late as Tuesday, his campaign staff was hiring.
Second, he is a close confidant of Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Even if the Democrats maintained control of the House come January, it is “not exactly” a given she would continue as Speaker. If she were ousted, allies of hers would likely suffer. I don’t think Obey would take kindly to being either the ranking member on Appropriations or worse, just a member.
Revisions/extensions (10:20 pm 5/5/2010) – With another tip of the hat to Kevin, the Cook Political Report moved the seat from Likely Democratic to Toss-Up.
Also, there’s something I missed in the Journal Sentinel story that Kevin picked up – we might get a third Republican in the race, Rep. Jerry Petrowski (R-Marathon). However, as Kevin notes, if Decker jumps in the House race, Petrowski may well try for Decker’s Senate seat if he’s in the mood for bucking for a promotion.
R&E part 2 (12:16 am 5/6/2010) – Yes, I’m up way too late. However, my man in the know in the Capitol, Lance Burri, has a few words on what it would mean for the two Senate Dems who would be giving up their seat for a shot at the House. He says that, if Decker runs, he knows the Senate Dems are in for a whupping and that he’d be out of the leadership. If Pat Kreitlow runs, he knows he’d be a casualty. Bonus item on Kreitlow – I didn’t know he was considered one of the more vulnerable Dems (I thought that honor went to Jim Sullivan, John Lehman and Kathleen Vinehout), and do remember it takes only 2 of those to fall for the Republicans to take back the Senate.
Ask Egg – the glorious return
It’s been far too long since I dipped into the proverbial mailbag, but the allregies are in full bloom, and the snark is screaming to be unleashed. Let’s roll.
Dear Egg,
I just can’t help but unleash my inner Alinsky. Whether it’s those redressing their grievances with government, those in the opposition party, allies of this country, or corporations who gave me more money than they gave anybody else, I keep insulting them. HELP!
-Steamrolling in DC
Dear Steamroller,
Allow me to quote your favorite WWF ex-rassler for the advice, “Know your role and shut your mouth.” Otherwise, I’ll be forced to make this little diddy into a full song:
Boots on the throat,
Boots on the throat,
Looking like Stalin with the jackboots on the throat.
With the arm sticking out, nose in the air, boots hit the throat.
-Egg
Dear Egg,
Until recently, I served as a mostly-ineffectual cabinet member of the governor of one party. Since he’s on his way out (let’s not get into why; I truly love the guy even if the people don’t), I’m looking for a new challenge, and I think I found a doozy – run for the Senate nomination of the other party. How can I fool the people into voting for me, at least in the primary?
-Brewing something in Chippewa Falls
Dear Brewing,
Normally, I’d say you’re screwed, blued, and tattooed, but seeing your (former) party is busy clearing its primaries of any and all challengers, run as yourself. By all means defend a tax hike that is responsible for nearly half one of the few remaining Wisconsin gems’ losses. By all means tie yourself to that unpopular governor – after all, their supporters will be free to support you in the primary, and then go home to the most-liberal Senator in the nation.
Oh wait a minute – that plan is falling apart as 1/8th of the state won’t be able to play that crossover game. I should’ve stuck with the default.
-Egg
Dear Egg,
Up until the brain trust in DC convinced me to give up a cushy governor’s job to run for Senate, my subjects loved me. Since then, things have gone downhill, as first my subjects, then the guy who I hugged abandoned me. That tanning cream is telling me, “If you just go rogue,…”
– Tanned in Tallahassee
Dear Tanned,
A prerequisite for going Rogue is not growing government. What, you say? You want to run as an independent? That’s not going to end well. Just ask Ross Perot.
Did you expect any help from The Steamroller? Dude, haven’t you noticed all the bloodstains on the underside of that bus he’s driving? Did you notice his footwear? If he stomps on the throats of a group of people that gave him more money than they gave anybody else, he’s not going to help somebody who hugged him.
One more thing – orange is a fruit, not a skin color.
-Egg
May 4, 2010
Graphic of the day – the three classes of American business
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