No Runny Eggs

How much do you want to bet that Gov. Jim Doyle doesn’t take RPW chair Reince Priebus up on his challenge issued in the following press release?

MADISON – Following Governor Doyle’s official announcement that he will not seek reelection in 2010, Republican Party of Wisconsin Chairman Reince Priebus issued the following statement:

“Governor Doyle’s decision not to seek a third term can be attributed to many factors, but self-imposed term limits isn’t one of them.

Low approval ratings and a budget mess to clean up, on top of embarrassing stories such as an illegal legal counsel and a no-bid train contract likely helped convince Governor Doyle that Wisconsin voters have had enough of his failed policies.

If Governor Doyle really believed that all governors should be limited to two terms in office, then why was he raising campaign cash during the past two years? In his press conference this morning, he mentioned he and Jessica believed he would be a two-term governor. In that case, Governor Doyle should donate all of the campaign money he’s raised during his second term to charity, and I am calling on him to do just that.”

That was fast – the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel is reporting that Lieutenant Governor Barbara Lawton will throw her hat into the Democratic gubernatorial primary, while Rep. Paul Ryan will not throw his hat into the Republican gubernatorial primary.

I don’t buy this statement from Lawton’s camp for a second considering the news came out less than 1 1/2 hours after Gov. Jim Doyle announced he would not seek a third term – “Today is Gov. Doyle’s day and the lieutenant governor wishes him well.” I would think that one would at least let the fireball start contracting before announcing, “The lieutenant governor intends to run for governor and she will have more to say about that in the near future.” Then again, there is no love lost between Doyle and Lawton.

Meanwhile, Rep Ron Kind (D-La Crosse) was more succinct in his statement – “Since Governor Doyle’s decision has become public, people from around the state have contacted me and urged me to run for Governor. I thank them for their support and I am considering it. In the weeks to come I will make my decision.”

As expected (and frankly, predicted by me this morning), Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Janesville) issued a statement saying that he had no interest in running for governor in 2010. That tracks with the last question I asked him at the state GOP convention regarding a possible Senate run; he’s just too happy in the House right now.

File this dispatch from the MacIver Institute under T for “Told you so!” The takeaway:

Polling done by others showed Governor Doyle’s approval and re-elect numbers plummeted lower and lower each month after his Budget address in February. Our poll showed him with a lead over both of his prospective GOP challengers this spring, but foretold what would would happen if the Governor chose spending and taxing over belt tightening.

With the predicted Wisconsin voter reaction now a reality, Governor Doyle is poised to bow out, rather than face their wrath at the polls.

As our polling showed, it didn’t have to come to this.

The question now is: Will other elected officials in Madison learn from his mistakes?

They also throw in a flashback to the final state budget that ought to scare the bejeebers out of the rest of the field as well – $12.1 billion of bad ($3.63 billion of new spending, $2.05 billion in new taxes, $3.58 billion of borrowing, $1.50 billion in allowable local property tax hikes, and $2.05 billion in structural deficit). While it most-affects Lieutenant Governor Barbara Lawton and the Legislative prospective candidates, it also doesn’t bode well for noted fee-hiker Milwaukee mayor Tom Barrett or noted federal tax-hiker Ron Kind.

While I don’t keep up with much from the Washington Post, I do follow Chris Cillizza’s The Fix. He picked up on the news from the Politico over the weekend, and I do have to give a couple of commenters a inside-the-cheese perspective. Since I’m not about to register to comment over there, I have to do it here.

For mark_in_austin, who wonders how Kathleen Falk could be considered a serious contender, I first recommend this morning’s hot read from Christian Schneider. I further point out that she has failed in two of three statewide elections – the 2002 Democratic gubernatorial primary and the 2006 AG general election (she did, however, knock off a scandal-ridden incumbent who dared to push just a little bit into the shady dealings of Doyle). The second loss is the only statewide/Congressional office that flipped from the Democrats to the Republicans in the 2006 election cycle.

For JayPen, who wonders what will happen to Doyle’s $2 million war chest, it will most-likely be wound down slowly. If I’m reading the appropriate statutes right (Chapter 11), a bit over $40,000 per cycle can go to an individual gubernatorial campaign, with lesser amounts going to lower statewide and local campaigns. The moneys could also be returned to the donors, or donated to a charitable organization or the common school fund.

(H/T – The blatantly-ripped-off Charlie Sykes)

Christian Schneider, one of the true professional political handicappers, handicaps the race to replace Gov. Jim Doyle on the Democratic side of the ticket. He introduces a new name to the mix; Senate Democratic Leader Russ Decker:

Through the miracle of modern technology, I was able to actually record Russ Decker’s brain waves regarding his decision on whether to run for Governor:

“So I’ve been busting my tail for the people in the state senate for 20 years, and some kook like Barb Lawton is actually mentioned as a more viable candidate for governor than I am? I’m the freaking Senate Majority Leader for Christ’s sake! I’m the second most important Democrat in state government – and as much as I’d love to run for Dave Obey’s congressional seat when he retires, everyone knows that bearded skeleton is only leaving Congress feet first. He’ll probably serve until he’s 132.

But what if people start figuring out that my fingerprints are all over this most recent disastrous budget? Aren’t I culpable for the huge tax increases and future deficits this budget creates? Are voters really going to elect someone that’s saddled with all the same baggage that Jim Doyle carries around?

And how is it that Pizza Hut keeps coming up with new pizzas to sell us as ‘specials,’ when they’re all essentially the same ingredients?”

(Sorry, I didn’t turn off the thought transcriber machine in time.)

Verdict:

RUSS DECKER GOT MORE GRAVY THAN PEOPLE THINK

Bonus coverage from the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel includes news that I’ve been fearing; the Thompson gang,
including Tommy himself and former aide Bill McCoshen, are taking a second look at running for governor. Further, they speculate with no comment from the respective campaigns that Attorney General J.B. Van Hollen and Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Janesville) would jump in. While Van Hollen might try to prove that A.G. stands for “Aspiring to be Governor”, I strongly doubt that Ryan would bolt from the House.

They also have a run-down on available money for the various Democratic challengers:

• Milwaukee mayor Tom Barrett – $840,257 (the biggest available Democratic warchest)
• Rep Ron Kind (D-La Crosse) – $43,128 of $955,512 legally available
• State Sen. Jon Erpenbach (D-Waunakee) – $21,000
• Dane County Executive Kathleen Falk – $17,000

In case you’ve been in a cave all weekend, Gov. Jim Doyle shocked the part of the world that follows Wisconsin politics by letting slip the news that he would not be running for re-election. After getting scooped, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel popped in with a few more details:

• The official announcement will come on Monday.
• An unnamed senior Democrat legislator said that Doyle came to this decision recently, and also noted the effect the tea parties and townhall meetings have had.

Meanwhile, the right side of Wisconsin politics hasn’t been silent:

• Milwaukee County Executive and candidate for governor Scott Walker said, “It would be the right decision for the governor and in the best interest of Wisconsin taxpayers.”
• Former Congressman and candidate for governor Mark Neumann called it “a game changer”
• The Recall Doyle folks are claiming victory, with their first mission of getting Doyle out now all-but-officially accomplished.
• Former state Senator Cathy Stepp calls it a train derailed. She also speculates that the eventual Democratic nominee will be Rep. Ron Kind (La Crosse).
• James Wigderson interrupted his summer vacation to ask whether DPW chair Mike Tate is the least-qualified state party chair being asked to defend an open gubernatorial seat, and douse some more water on supporters of Lieutenant Governor Barbara Lawton.
• Mary at Freedom Eden broke out the lame-duck call.
• The Recess Supervisor notes that lame ducks can be the most-dangerous kind, and also notes the day prior how Doyle governed like Governor Doesntgiveashit. In the comments of the first linked item, he handicaps the races.
• Lance Burri calls it a mixed bag.

So, the $16 million question is, “What now?” On the Democratic side, a lot depends on whether Doyle stays in Wisconsin until September 2010. In one of his updates, Kevin Binversie picked up on a WisPolitics item that Doyle does plan on sticking around. That would essentially eliminate any “incumbency” factor for Lawton, who Doyle reportedly doesn’t exactly like. It would also leave the primary wide open, though I note that Democrats aren’t exactly shy about throwing out extraordinarily-weak incumbents in the primary (see Peg Lautenschlager).

Continuing with the Lawton thoughts, whether or not she is governor after an early Doyle departure, she would be tied to a very-unpopular administration. She also is extremely liberal, which explains why she won WisPolitics’ straw poll of who the attendees at the Democratic convention would like to see run if Doyle did not. Further, “acting” governors don’t exactly do well in their “affirmation” elections (ask Scott McCallum).

I honestly don’t know much about Rep. Kind, but he’s been trying to position himself as a “moderate”. If memory serves, a while back Recess Supervisor noted that besides appearing moderate, he is very telegenic and well-spoken. There are a couple of negatives, one paradoxically introduced by Doyle and his hacks on the former State Elections Board. First, he does have a rather extensive federal record. Second, that federal campaign war chest, if the Mark Green example isn’t “conveniently” ignored by the 100% Doyle-handpicked Government Accountability Board, can’t exactly be used.

The third big name is Milwaukee mayor Tom Barrett. He failed in the 2002 gubernatorial primary, and hasn’t exactly distinguished himself in Milwaukee. Beyond that, there’s state Senator Jon Erpenbach, Dane County executive and multiple-time statewide loser Kathleen Falk, and a thin bench.

On the Republican side, that news throws out the emerging plan by both Walker and Neumann to focus almost all their energy on Doyle. It does, however, also eliminate someone who was able to turn a similar situation at this point in 2005 into a successful re-election bid, as well as someone who had $2 million already salted away into the campaign war-chest. Speaking of money, since it is expected that the Democrats would also have a hotly-contested primary, the money race will essentially reset after the primaries.

Unlike Recess Supervisor, I do expect more high-profile names, especially outside the Milwaukee area, to throw their hats in the ring. Neumann has far more in common with Walker than he does with the prototypical outstate moderate Republican.