In case you’ve been in a cave all weekend, Gov. Jim Doyle shocked the part of the world that follows Wisconsin politics by letting slip the news that he would not be running for re-election. After getting scooped, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel popped in with a few more details:
- The official announcement will come on Monday.
- An unnamed senior Democrat legislator said that Doyle came to this decision recently, and also noted the effect the tea parties and townhall meetings have had.
Meanwhile, the right side of Wisconsin politics hasn’t been silent:
- Milwaukee County Executive and candidate for governor Scott Walker said, “It would be the right decision for the governor and in the best interest of Wisconsin taxpayers.”
- Former Congressman and candidate for governor Mark Neumann called it “a game changer”
- The Recall Doyle folks are claiming victory, with their first mission of getting Doyle out now all-but-officially accomplished.
- Former state Senator Cathy Stepp calls it a train derailed. She also speculates that the eventual Democratic nominee will be Rep. Ron Kind (La Crosse).
- James Wigderson interrupted his summer vacation to ask whether DPW chair Mike Tate is the least-qualified state party chair being asked to defend an open gubernatorial seat, and douse some more water on supporters of Lieutenant Governor Barbara Lawton.
- Mary at Freedom Eden broke out the lame-duck call.
- The Recess Supervisor notes that lame ducks can be the most-dangerous kind, and also notes the day prior how Doyle governed like Governor Doesntgiveashit. In the comments of the first linked item, he handicaps the races.
- Lance Burri calls it a mixed bag.
So, the $16 million question is, “What now?” On the Democratic side, a lot depends on whether Doyle stays in Wisconsin until September 2010. In one of his updates, Kevin Binversie picked up on a WisPolitics item that Doyle does plan on sticking around. That would essentially eliminate any “incumbency” factor for Lawton, who Doyle reportedly doesn’t exactly like. It would also leave the primary wide open, though I note that Democrats aren’t exactly shy about throwing out extraordinarily-weak incumbents in the primary (see Peg Lautenschlager).
Continuing with the Lawton thoughts, whether or not she is governor after an early Doyle departure, she would be tied to a very-unpopular administration. She also is extremely liberal, which explains why she won WisPolitics’ straw poll of who the attendees at the Democratic convention would like to see run if Doyle did not. Further, “acting” governors don’t exactly do well in their “affirmation” elections (ask Scott McCallum).
I honestly don’t know much about Rep. Kind, but he’s been trying to position himself as a “moderate”. If memory serves, a while back Recess Supervisor noted that besides appearing moderate, he is very telegenic and well-spoken. There are a couple of negatives, one paradoxically introduced by Doyle and his hacks on the former State Elections Board. First, he does have a rather extensive federal record. Second, that federal campaign war chest, if the Mark Green example isn’t “conveniently” ignored by the 100% Doyle-handpicked Government Accountability Board, can’t exactly be used.
The third big name is Milwaukee mayor Tom Barrett. He failed in the 2002 gubernatorial primary, and hasn’t exactly distinguished himself in Milwaukee. Beyond that, there’s state Senator Jon Erpenbach, Dane County executive and multiple-time statewide loser Kathleen Falk, and a thin bench.
On the Republican side, that news throws out the emerging plan by both Walker and Neumann to focus almost all their energy on Doyle. It does, however, also eliminate someone who was able to turn a similar situation at this point in 2005 into a successful re-election bid, as well as someone who had $2 million already salted away into the campaign war-chest. Speaking of money, since it is expected that the Democrats would also have a hotly-contested primary, the money race will essentially reset after the primaries.
Unlike Recess Supervisor, I do expect more high-profile names, especially outside the Milwaukee area, to throw their hats in the ring. Neumann has far more in common with Walker than he does with the prototypical outstate moderate Republican.
