The original was posted at Sister Toldjah on April 3. Since the comments timed out there, I’m reposting it here, and moving the placeholder, also posted on the 3rd, below the fold
ST put this warning from Newt Gingrich about a third party springing up in 2012 up in Hot Headlines yesterday, which gives me the perfect opportunity to launch into my thoughts on this possibility. I’ve been tossing this around for the last 4 years, since President Bush’s re-election, when I became convinced that a significant portion of the Republican Party was more interested in purchasing the middle by growing government than actually opposing the Socialization of America espoused by the Democrats since LBJ. I’ve alluded to my thought process several times in my looks at where conservatism has been the last couple years.
First, allow me to summarize the gist of Gingrich’s comments. He notes that all of the Obama administration spending excesses were set up by the Bush administration, and that there is an undercurrent of disgust aimed at both parties. We all know about the right-v-Republican-v-right battle, and there was at one point a rather heated left-v-Democrat one. However, the Democrats in power are rapidly healing that rift, even as there are rumblings of a center-v-Democrat one. I’m not exactly convinced that “Blue Dog Democrats” or PUMAs exist, but if they do, they could make a third party a much more intriguing proposition.
The essential part of creating a third party is finding something that is not addressed by either of the two existing parties, but is popular enough to create an electoral majority. The ideology that is closest to being able to create that, social conservatism, has been sufficiently tarred by the left that even though individual issues still win on the ballot, politicians are sufficiently scared of the tar to actually attach themselves to it.
I wish I could believe that fiscal conservatism could be that glue. The scope of the various Tea Parties are encouraging. However, I’ve seen this before in the county I live in (Milwaukee County, Wisconsin), and while we still have the County Executive that got swept in, a supermajority of the County Board went back to the tax-and-spend-and-tax-and-spend-and-tax-and-spend tactics that ultimately led to the pension scandal that sparked the temporary tax revolt.
Even if a conservative glue could be found, there’s the matter of supplanting the Republican Party as the “Not-Democrat” Party. In most states, the existing “third” parties have consistently failed to get more than a handful of votes. Given the plurality-wins structure in most states, there will necessarily be a rather lengthy stretch of comlete Democrat control of government.
That brings me to the other limiting factor; time. There are actually three different clocks running; the 2010 elections, the point at which the “looters” and “moochers” are a majority, and the point at which the entitlement scheme starts drawing from the general fund rather than supplementing it. One could argue that we’re already past the second point; the fact that President Obama took a majority of the vote with a very-thinly-veiled Socialist agenda, and the Democrats in Congress and in statehouses increased their majorities with an unveiled Socialist one, would suggest that point has been crossed.
Similarily, it probably is too late to create a new “Not-Democrat” Party that will have a chance in the 2010 elections. It took the Republicans 6 years to be a force on the national scene. I’ve stated time and again that today’s Democrats will try their hardest to not repeat the mistakes of the 1850s and allow an “upstart” party to get enough roots to challenge their hegemony.
While there still is almost a decade before Social Security goes into the red, the problem is that those in office after the 2010 elections will be the ones to redraw the districts. Meanwhile, not only is nothing being done to correct the problem, but the things that can correct the problem have been systematically wrecked.
If someone could give me good news I could believe in, I would appreciate it.
I’ve alluded to my thought process on a possible third party to supplant the Republicans as the “Not-Democrat” Party a few different times here, but I haven’t yet fully fleshed it out. Since Sister Toldjah put Newt Gingrich’s warning that there could be a third party in 2012 up in her Hot Headlines section yesterday, I decided to run with that as my first post over there. Since I want to keep the traffic flowing there as she runs ads (or at least tries to; the blog ad industry is essentially dead), I won’t be reposting that here until comments are shut off there in about a week. I will, however, give you a taste now:
I have ponder the same ,if only there could be a viable 3rd party that could make a difference. The main problem is that unless the congress or at least on part of the house could also be pro 3rd party it wouldn’t work. Both parties are completely sold out to this big group or that big group. They need an eye opener in the worst way.
A third party run by Gingrich will kill the Republican party. He will draw more for the R’s than the D’s and leave the D’s in control. Good thinking.
Talk of a third party is music to Obama’s ears. Conservatives are stuck with the GOP and our time would be better spent making the GOP accountable to US!
We conservatives had our chance to make the GOP acountable to conservative ideas (e.g. small government, less taxes, dismantling the Education Department, fixing Social Security, strong currency, no bailouts, etc.). Most of them passed on the conservative nominee, Ron Paul, and opted for the “electable”, John McCain. And prior to that most cheered during the eight-year of reign of George “big-bigger-biggest government, but (not) conservative” Bush.
With “punishment” like that, why in the world would the GOP listen to conservative voters?
Face facts, conservative voters are on the GOP plantaion just like black voters are on the Democratic plantation.
Heads of both parties say to them: “Bitch all you want. We don’t care. Where ya gonna go?” And they are right. you said it yourself: “Conservatives are stuck with the GOP “.
The stongest chains on a slave are not those made forged of iron. The strongest chains are forged from the idea that your are a hopless captive. Free the mind and the body will follow.
And the analysis by Gingrich completely ignores the fact that ballot access for any party other than Republicans or Democrats is tyrannically oppressive.
Well, except for Arkansas, where the ballot access is $75 and if you want to claim a party affiliation, that party can veto your claimed designation. Party to Candidate: No you are not a xxxxx and no you cannot use our name on your ballot line.
The gory details of ballot access can be found at Ballot Access News.