Included in names that have supposedly been on John McCain’s VP short list is, Minnesota Governor, Tim Pawlenty. Pawlenty’s name is on the list because he is a young, arguably successful and popular Governor who share’s most of McCain’s key views. While Pawlenty’s name comes up nearly anytime a “short list” is comprised, I think his is one name no longer on the list that McCain keeps
McCain held a barbecue this weekend that many folks were seeing as a “get-to-know-you” for potential VP candidates. Notably missing from this gathering was Pawlenty. Reports were that Pawlenty had a family event and that was at least one reason he wasn’t invited. I think that’s just a convenient cover.
SurveyUSA has been doing a series of polls that will eventually cover 17 states. Each poll queries voters on their likelihood to vote for various combinations of McCain or Obama with 4 possible VP combinations for each. They’ve only completed 5 states but the results thus far aren’t good for Pawlenty. The results for Ohio, Virgina, California, Pennsylvania and New Mexico are in, and with only 1 exception, Pawlenty finishes last compared to the other three names polled. Perhaps the saddest part of this (for conservatives) is that Joe Lieberman is one of the VP names polled and he beat Pawlenty in 19 out of 20 combinations.
Another hit on Pawlenty is a recent Rasmussen Poll. This poll shows McCain trailing Obama by 15 points in Minnesota and confirms a poll done in April that showed a similar deficit. Some of the argument for Pawlenty being VP would be his ability to make Minnesota a competitive state and perhaps put it in the Republican category for the first time since 1972. If the Rasumessen poll is accurate, it’s unlikely that even Pawlenty as VP could close that large a gap.
It’s hard to say whether Pawlenty would really want a VP slot, opinions vary. If you get consistently beaten by Lieberman and deliver a winning margin only in New Mexico, it probably won’t matter if you want the job or not, you aren’t going to have it offered.
Here’s an important piece of advice: If it looks like it’s going to be McCain/Palin anyway (and that should be a “no brainer” for Team McCain), McCain should announce NOW or VERY SOON, rather than later towards the convention. There’s currently a growing chorus for Obama/Hillary (as VP) ticket (in fact the Dems are likely aware of the Palin phenomenon). If the GOP waits while movement for Hillary as VP grows — even worse until after it is solidified that Hillary will/could be VP pick — selecting Palin will be portrayed by Dems/liberal media more as a reaction by GOP selecting its own female (overshawdoing Palin’s own remarkable assets), rather than McCain taking the lead on this. Selecting Palin now or early (contrary to the punditocracy) will mean McCain will be seen as driving the course of this campaign overwhelmingly, and the DEMS will be seen as merely reacting. And, there’s absoultely no down-side to this because even if Hillary is a no-go as VP for Obama, the GOP gains by acting early. McCain the maverick. Palin the maverick. Do it now!
There’s no reason, and actually substantial negative, in McCain waiting to see what the Dems do first insofar as his picking Palin as VP, because, no matter who Obama picks, Palin is by far (and I mean far) the best pick for McCain and the GOP, especially in this time of GOP woes. The GOP can be seen as the party of real ‘change’ (albeit I hate that mantra, change, change, bla bla), while not really having to change from GOP core conservative values, which Palin more than represents.
In light of the current oil/energy situation, as well as the disaffected female Hillary voters situation, and growing focus on McCain’s age and health, Palin is more than perfect — now.
(Perhaps Team McCain is already on to this.)
Ted,
Palin’s name gets mentioned, but not in all circles. Palin while popular, has only been in office since 2006. The concern is that it’s hard to hang “no experience” on Barack if McCain’s own VP, who will be viewed as “imminent” due to McCain’s age, has the same issue. The other issue I see with Palin is that her views on gorebal warming and drilling in ANWR are opposites of McCain’s and strongly so. Again, reconciling these kinds of things for the MSM and independents is time that McCain may not want to invest.
As to Hillary, hers was not one of the names in the SurveyUSA poll. If you want to really be concerned, the name that polled the best as BO’s VP was John Edwards!