In part 1 of the series inspired by Dad29’s call for bets, I explored the Republican half of the Presidential pool. Here I take a look at the other half.
At this point, there are only two real contenders, Hillary Clinton and Barak Obama. While both are highly liberal, like the rest of the Dem field, they have at least attempted to follow the Bill Clinton/Jimmy Carter/John Kennedy model of triangulation. The Democrats surely have to realize that the last 3 times they successfully took the White House from Republicans, going back over 47 (to be 48 by the time the election rolls around) years, they ran a candidate that could at the least fake some sort of conservatism.
The remainder of the Democratic field simply cannot pull that off. The thing that could work against both Clinton and Obama, however, is the Dems do not tend to settle things early. One could make the case that John Edwards could get the sympathy vote, but there is going to be too much time between now and Iowa.
Yeah, there’s some buzz about Al Gore, but I discount him because of the “loser” rule. Nobody saw hide or hair out of either Jimmy Carter or Walter Mondale after they lost their runs. John Kerry recognized this and bailed early. Also working against Gore is, like the also-rans, he cannot possibly fake being a conservative.
So, the battle is going to be between Hillary and Obama. Obama’s the blanker slate, so he didn’t have to practice as much triangulation as Clinton. However, Clinton is extremely ruthless. Give the nod to Clinton.
Part 3, a very- (or is it too-?) early look at the general election, up next.
