I still haven’t quite figured out who I’m backing in the Republican primary for President, but since Dad29 decided to call me out, I better start. First, let’s take a look at the announced front-runners:
Rudy Giuliani –
Why is he a front-runner? It’s easy to say that it’s all how he led New York City after 9/11, but that’s actually an outgrowth of his law-and order background. He did clean up the uncleanable city long before 2001. Also, he has been tacking towards the right, claiming he’ll appoint constructionists to the court.
Why he won’t get the nomination? Outside of law and order and taxes (though I don’t recall whether his conservatism on that is genuine or freshly-found), he is extremely liberal. He is pro-abortion, pro-activist government, and staunchly anti-gun. Also, his personal life is a shambles, and that still sinks Republicans, even RINOs and RepublicRATs.
John McCain –
Why is he a front-runner? Because the media says so. I honestly can’t think of another reason.
Why he won’t get the nomination? Where do I begin? McCain-Feingold? Pro-illegal alien? Pro-taxes? A continuing shunning of the heart and soul of the Republican Party?
Mitt Romney –
Why is he a front-runner? Because he’s the Republican version of Bill Clinton, and because of the liberal tendencies of both Giuliani and McCain, he’s been able to position himself as the big-name “conservative”.
Why he won’t get the nomination? Because he’s the Republican version of Bill Clinton, the primary voters and caucusers know that Romney is anything but conservative.
Then there’s the announced dark-horses, including Tom Tancredo, Duncan Hunter and (just because I’m in Wisconsin) Tommy Thompson. Tancredo is a one-note pony who thinks that hitting $1 million is a big deal (H/T – Sean Hackbarth). Hunter, who has a few more ideas, has the same limitation as Tancredo (being a “mere” Congressman) and less cash. Tommy is the Midwest version of Romney with a “charm” that doesn’t work on the far sides of the mountain ranges. The fact that I can’t recall the other dark-horses off the top of my head tells you their chances (namely, none).
That leads us to a pair of unannounced candidates. First in the docket, Newt Gingrich. He was the architect behind the Contract with America, the last lasting major conservative achievement in Washington. There are, however, three problems: first, the personal problems that led him to leave Congress would doom his candidacy. Second, up until recently, he had been tacking leftward. Third, by saying he wouldn’t decide until fall whether to run, he would be entering the race too late. Republicans tend to stick with early front-runners; indeed, George W. Bush all-but-sewed up the nomination in 1999 (knocking out everybody of note except McCain).
Second, there’s Fred Thompson. He’s very articulate and for the most part is conservative. There is a giant problem; he voted for McCain-Feingold while he was still in the Senate. I could’ve swore the First Amendment was quite clear on that issue, even if the Supreme Court on first consideration couldn’t see it.
Now, to answer the money question, which is actually easier since I don’t quite have a horse in this race yet. Fred jumps in and starts emptying the pool. First out is Tommy, followed closely by Hunter (Tancredo will stay in just to be Don Quixote). Hopefully Gingrich decides that discretion is the better part of ego and stays on the sideline, because he could very well play king-maker. If he stays out, the battle will be Fred versus McCain/Giuliani. The schedule does not favor McCain, despite his recent conversion on ethanol. However, he’ll draw enough of the country-clubbers away from Giuliani to give Thompson an insurmountable lead.
However, if Gingrich does jump in, it’s a nasty 2 1/2 (with Quixot…er, Tancredo being the half) versus 2 battle. Prior to 2000, I would have said with confidence that it would have been either Thompson or Gingrich winning (more likely Thompson). However, the Republican Party has become too much of a big tent to say with confidence that a conservative would come out on top. Partly because I’m an optimist, I’ll say that Thompson takes the nomination.
Up next, the Dems half of the pool, followed by a very-early look at the general election.
