No Runny Eggs

In the last 5 days, 3 entities have released polls on the governor’s race (listed in order of dates taken, hat-tips to Kevin and Peter for finding these first):

• August 10 – Rasmussen – Doyle 49%, Green 41% (Doyle gained 2 points since the July Rasmussen poll, Green held steady, and the 3-month rolling average remained Doyle +6%). Rasmussen notes a certain lack of “loyalty” for Green among Pubbie voters, but without a breakdown of where that lack of loyalty is, I can’t agree with Kevin’s analysis that it’s Belling telling us SE Wisconsin Stormtroopers to not vote for him. It could just as easily be SW Wisconsin RINOs thinking that Green is too much of a conservative.
• August 11-13 – Strategic Vision – Doyle 45%, Green 44% (both candidates improved 2 points since the July Strategic Vision poll, Doyle’s disapproval at 50%). Strategic Vision has always been much more favorable to the Pubbies in this race, though you can hardly consider this a conservative-friendly poll; RINOs take the top 3 spots in the straw poll for the 2008 Pubbie nomination.
• August 12-14 – Research 2000 for WISC-TV – Doyle 48%, Green 38% (no previous polls to compare to and no numbers other than what WISC decided to feed us). Most-noteworthy of those limited numbers is that 34% of the respondents had no opinion of Green.

Before Xoff and the rest of you Doylies break out the champagne, do take a couple of notes:

• All 3 of these polls were finished just before Green finally got on the TV airwaves, but after a round of Doyle TV ads and several rounds of Doylie TV ads.
• There has yet to be a major poll that puts Doyle at or above 50%.

I strongly suspect that this is the high point of the Doyle campaign, now that new polls will start reflecting the Green Team’s on-air response. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if the next Strategic Vision poll has Green up, with Rasmussen reducing Doyle’s lead to 4 points or less.

In short, the election will turn on what close Wisconsin elections have turned on the last several election cycles – whether the Pubbies can turn out enough enough voters to overcome the ‘Rat vote fraud (or conversely, whether the ‘Rats can manufacture enough votes to overcome the Pubbie turnout).

Mash here for the first extreme commercial, set to hit Wisconsin’s airwaves tomorrow.

Revisions/extensions (11:28 am 8/15) – Jim McGuigan has raised some serious questions about the veracity of the Sullivan report. I am looking into this, and hope to have the original voter registration information, specifically from Whitefish Bay, by the end of the week. Once I do, I will scan that, without any enhancements, into a file and go from there.

We have a pair of multiple voters seeking office under the DPW banner. I’m sure you know all about Donovan Riley, who was imported from Illinois by the moonbats who felt that Jeff Plale’s conversion to hard-core lieberalism wasn’t complete enough, voted twice in the 2000 fall primary, and basically laughed it off. Who you may not know about (if you don’t read Boots and Sabers, that is) is the saga of James O. Sullivan, who the ‘Rats hope unseats Tom Reynolds. He did the same thing 4 years earlier. You’ll have to forgive the FIB for not realizing a few things that Sullivan knew all about:

• Keep your fraud in Milwaukee County. Sullivan did his personal fraud-for-Clinton campaign in Whitefish Bay and Wauwatosa, communities mis-served by E. Michael McCan’t, a DA who never met a political corruption case he would pursue. Riley chose to do his Wisconsin half of his personal fraud-for-Algore campaign in Oconomowoc, which is served by a hang-’em-high DA, Paul Bucher (who has to be hitting his knees thanking God for this plum case right now). Bucher isn’t wasting any time in launching an investigation.
• Don’t cross state lines, especially if your federal candidate loses – Once again, Sullivan didn’t leave Milwaukee County. Riley spread his scheme across two states, and the guy he committed fraud for lost the Presidential election. Crossing state lines easily opens up the federal hooks, and because George Bush won instead of Algore, there are pit bulls in the Milwaukee and Chicago US Attorney’s offices.
• Let the statute of limitations run out before your scheme is discovered, just in case the prosecution situation changes between the time you commit the fraud and the time it is discovered. I’m not positive on the federal statute of limitations, but the state has a 6-year one. It’s been just short of 10 years since Sullivan committed his fraud, but less than 6 years since Riley committed his.

Of course, there is one thing or two that neither Sullivan nor Riley counted on; the rise of blogs and the anger of informed voters. I have another reason to jump on the far side of the primary, because as much as I’ve called Plale “East Side”, he’s nowhere near as bad as Riley (and thanks to gerrymandering, there’s no way a Pubbie is taking a district dominated by UWM and a couple of union towns in Cudahy and South Milwaukee). Meanwhile, folks on the west end of the county (which will include my sister in a couple weeks) will have to wait until November to hold Sullivan accountable by denying him the state Senate.

This is the Emergency Blogging System. Even though steveegg isn’t here, through the magic of WordPress and a helpful Badger Carnival creator, we have a Carnival post, even if it does suck because it was pumped into the pipeline on a keyboard broken by repeated crashes by a tired forehead.

The Senate race just isn’t getting the attention or respect it deserves. Frankly, it deserves no respect, but it does need some attention. Let’s bring in Michael Buffem….

In the gray corner, weighing in at no accomplishments in 3 terms in the Senate, a man whose idea of campaigning is to buy a spot in the NBA playoffs once every 6 years, Nobody’s Senator, Herb Kohl.

In the red-and-blue corner, weighed down by a sexual abuse allegation that, despite being filed in December, only came to light after nobody else showed up at the “R”PW headquarters to try to carry the RINO banner, the Rodney Dangerfield of Wisconsin politics, Robert “The Lawyer” Lorge.

In the Commie red corner, and the first challenger for Nobody’s Senate seat, knocked down by Madison police for attempting to gather signatures after hours, sponsored by the KOmmies and dope-smokers nationwide, Ben “Potted Plant” Masel.

In the other red corner (Oh, that’s green? I can’t tell the difference), carrying the water of the battiest of the moonbats, Rae Voegler.

Skydiving his way directly into the general election, stupidly refusing to accept the benefits of a straight-party ballot, Ben “Don’t call me the other one” Glatzel.

When the bell rings, the man in charge will be Kevin Kennedy. For the tens in attendance, the hundreds that give a damn, and the millions that will vote anyway, let’s get ready to rrrrrumbllllllllllle!