No Runny Eggs

The repository of one hard-boiled egg from the south suburbs of Milwaukee, Wisconsin (and the occassional guest-blogger). The ramblings within may or may not offend, shock and awe you, but they are what I (or my guest-bloggers) think.

February 9, 2010

Tuesday Hot Read – Matt Lewis’ “Questioning the trajectory of Rep. Ryan’s rising star”

Matt Lewis remembers that voting record matters, which tends to be bad news for one Paul Ryan –

Though he talks like Nobel Prize-winning economist Milton Friedman, some of Ryan’s most high-profile votes seem closer to Keynes than to Adam Smith. For example, in the span of about a year, Ryan committed fiscal conservative apostasy on three high-profile votes: The Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP (whereby the government purchased assets and equity from financial institutions), the auto-bailout (which essentially implied he agrees car companies – especially the ones with an auto plant in his district—are too big to fail), and for a confiscatory tax on CEO bonuses (which essentially says the government has the right to take away private property—if it doesn’t like you).

While Ryan’s overall voting record is very conservative, the problem with casting these high-profile votes is that they demonstrate he is willing to fundamentally reject conservatism when the heat is on.

Because it is impossible to believe the highly intelligent and well read Rep. Ryan was unfamiliar with conservative economic principles, one must conclude he either 1). Doesn’t really believe in free market economics, or 2). Was willing to cast bad votes for purely political purposes.

From my standpoint, ignorance can be forgiven and overcome; the other explanations, however, seem to be disqualifiers for higher office.

Yes, folks, that is Nick Schweitzer Matt linked to. Speaking of that, Nick was prophetic on what the bailouts of GM and Chrysler would lead to…

What this bailout proposes is to replace that system with one in which the Executive branch, through a “car czar”, and also through various financial carrots and sticks, take control of that reorganization. The danger in doing so is that not only will the bailout money be wasted, but now politics will enter into how the reorganization takes place. If you thought the current system of ear marks, and special favors in bills was bad, just wait and see what little favors GM, Ford and Chrysler are forced to do… whether it will actually help make a successful company again or not. This is once again an unprecedented growth in executive power, which makes our President even more like a King that before.

As for the charges, damn near everybody who doesn’t have a conspiratorial mind got fooled on TARP. However, by the time the auto bailouts came around, the “fool me twice” principle came into play. Ryan’s suggestion was to use previously-programmed-yet-unspent money for plant modernization to do the bailout, which given that the bailout was used as leverage for a takeover, is not exactly defensible. I’ll note that neither the GM truck plant in Janesville (Ryan’s hometown) nor the Chrysler engine plant in Kenosha got saved in the end.

Regarding the pay limit, that is an off-the-record answer.

Beware of the BHAG Trap! (A Solution)

by @ 5:35. Filed under Miscellaneous.

Shoebox is right (see previous post).  The President and congressional leaders have proposed a draconian takeover of the healthcare system.  So if they back off just a bit, Republicans might be comfortable.  Just like going from a goal of 20% sales growth to 10%. So, how do the Republicans avoid this, and still win the argument in front of the American people?  They need to be clear and concise right up front.

John Boehner or some other Republican spokesman needs to do an opening statement that goes something like this: “Mr. President, we are here tonight to discuss health care reform. We asked that the slate be wiped clean, and that we start over.  You have not agreed to that. But it is important the American people understand why Republicans are unwilling to work within the current framework.

Mr. President, you have a very different view of how medical services should be delivered. You believe that government should be allowed to compete with private business; that politicians and bureaucrats should make critical decisions about who gets what kind and quantity of health care services.  Republicans disagree.

People come to America from all over the world to obtain medical care.  That, sir, is not an accident.  It is the result of having the best health care delivery system in the world.  And that system was built by making the doctor patient / relationship paramount, and allowing free markets to foster unparalleled innovation and efficiently allocate resources.  And then there is our dedication to the sanctity of life, regardless of the age of the individual.  Republicans have offered plenty of ideas, all of which have been ignored by Democrats and special interest groups meeting in private.  Should you choose continue down the path that has destroyed the health care systems of many other nations, we will gladly be the party of “no.”  And rest assured, Mr. President, the public will reward us in November 2010 and beyond.”

Now, put yourself in Mr. Obama’s position.  What do you say next?

Beware of The BHAG Trap!

by @ 5:31. Filed under Miscellaneous.

After over two decades of work with large wireless companies, you can bet that I’ve been exposed to nearly every main stream theory or philosophy on change management that has existed. Do this, don’t do that. Encourage these people, use a stick on those people etc. etc. While I don’t buy all of the theories, I have to admit that I did learn a few things from the training and put that knowledge to work in some of my current engagements.

One theory that was not precisely a change management technique but has application there is call a BHAG. A BHAG is a Big Hairy Audacious Goal. The BHAG was popularized by James Collins in his book “Good to Great.” Collins used a BHAG as a goal that an organization could focus on. While they may have been so large that they weren’t always attained, they provided a focal point for everyone in the organization to measure against and see if the work they were doing or the plan they were looking to implement, moved them closer to or further away from the BHAG.

The translation of a BHAG for use in change management worked like this. Let’s say you had a company that typically saw sales growth of 5% annually. Let’s also say that you needed to improve on that and get to 10%. In many institutions, a change like that will be met by numerous people who tell you how and why that growth can’t be achieved. Knowing that that would occur, on a few occasions, instead of saying we wanted to grow by 10%, we’d say that we wanted to grow by 20%. Upon saying that, we would get the same group of folks telling us how and why we couldn’t achieve that growth. We’d then sit down and put a plan together with our teams for achieving 20% growth. At the end of the plan, the same people who were complaining at the start were typically still complaining. Once we completed the detailed plan we’d come back and tell folks that after taking the input, 10% is a more attainable goal. In nearly every instance, once we let them back to 10%, people would let out a collective “Whew,” and move forward executing on the 10% plan which is what we wanted all along.

By using the BHAG approach, we went through the same caterwauling and planning that we would have gone through had we originally set a 10% target. But, by using the BHAG, we allowed people to expand the belief in their own abilities beyond that what they otherwise thought they could do. If we had started at 10%, it would have been very likely that we ended up with a plan that had 6% or 7% growth.

What’s this got to do with anything?

President Obama has invited Senate and House leadership to a televised meeting to discuss Placebocare. Ostensibly, President Obama wants to find a way for the Republicans and Democrats to “come together” and pass a plan.

Folks, there is nothing about this plan to like. Short of starting all over, there should be no negotiation of any kind.

I’m afraid that the Republican leadership will not have the spine or knowledge of their own principles to stand up to this takeover of health care. I’m afraid that what could happen is that Obama views the current plan as a BHAG, that he might come back and offer a couple of Republican carrots; say something like, “we’ll look at tort reform,” or “we’ll look at more competition across state lines,” without any commitment to actual legislation. The problem with this is that if the Republicans allow this line of discussion, they will get caught in the BHAG trap and end up looking like the losers of this event.

I was discussing this concern with Birdman today and he had the perfect approach to avoiding the BHAG trap. Read the next post to see if you don’t agree with his approach.

February 8, 2010

The New Populists

by @ 13:53. Filed under Miscellaneous.

According to Merriam-Webster, a populist is someone who is, “a believer in the rights, wisdom, or virtues of the common people.”  Historically, populist movements have gone beyond elevating the common man, and have condemned the institutions that make up the status quo. Today’s populists call themselves the Tea Party movement, and my gut tells me they are a different breed of populist.

The vast majority of Tea Party types are disaffected conservatives and libertarians.  I know the Sarah Palins of the world want us all to believe there are as many frustrated Democrats and independents in the Tea Party crowd as there are angry Republicans and libertarian leaners.  Nonsense.  The Tea Party folks are for limited, constitutionally constrained government, minimal regulation, low taxes, and a minimum of bureaucracy.  People who believe in that kind of stuff most likely have never met a Democrat.

But here is where it gets interesting.  I don’t believe these people are anti-establishment, or anti-Ivy League education, or anti-bank, or anti-business.  But they are against establishment types, Ivy League school graduates, bankers and businessmen who are able to stack the deck.  Big businesses, big banks, and well-educated people are all fine and even virtuous, so long as they have to play by the same rules as the rest of us.  Let the big bank, the big car company or the big brokerage house go down if it fails.  Don’t allow Goldman Sachs to be a feeder system for the executive branch.

The 21st Century populist is not a Kansas farmer protecting agrarian interests, or a union member trying to “get his” from a Pittsburgh steel company.  Today’s populist is simply saying that he/she wants a fair shot, and does not want to be taxed to pay off the moron who drove Bank of America into the ground.  Seems reasonable to me.

Bounce? What bounce?

by @ 12:54. Filed under Politics - National.

Rasmussen Reports’ Daily Presidential Tracking Poll shows that whatever bounce Barack Obama got post-State of the Union speech has gone. This weekend’s numbers:

Saturday – -15 Approval Index (26% strongly approve/41% strongly disapprove), -11 overall differential (44% approve/55% disapprove)
Sunday – -17 Approval Index (26%/43%), -12 overall (44%/56%)
Monday – -15 Approval Index (26%/41%), -8 overall (46%/54%)

The average between the beginning of the year and the SOTU address is a -14.42 Approval Index (26.21% strongly approve/40.63% strongly disapprove) and a -5.71 overall differential (46.79% approve/52.50% disapprove). I believe the operative word is, “Splat!”

Talk to the hand, Palin/Hawkins edition

by @ 11:06. Filed under Politics - National.

John Hawkins answers the complaints from the oh-so-“tolerant” Left about Sarah Palin’s use of her hand to hold a couple of bullet points on her speech before the “National Tea Party Convention” Saturday. John, you should’ve used the backhand.

Monday Hot Read – Eric’s “Super Bowl XLIV Recap”

by @ 10:57. Filed under Sports.

All you need to know about the 44th edition of The Championship Game That Cannot Be Named™ can be found at Eric’s recap of the game:

One thing is certain in all of this. The Saints are no longer losers. They are now the very best.

On this day, we all wanted to be in that number. The Saints went marching in.

In 213 days, the NFL 2010 season kicks off. Before that is the NFL Draft.

The Saints are the defending champions, and Super Bowl XLIV is in the history books forever.

31-17 Saints

I strongly recommend you read the entire writeup. It is far better than anything you’ll find on any sports page, local or national.

Drinking Right – We’re tougher than DC edition

This is the Emergency Blogging System. It has been activated because of the approaching Perfect Drinking Right Snowstorm.

Don’t let the storm that’s supposed to dump 14 inches of snow on Milwaukee between tonight and Wednesday morning stop you from enjoying the February edition of Drinking Right. After all, it won’t be 14 inches by 7 pm tomorrow, when DR starts. As always, we will be gathered at Papa’s Social Club, 7718 W Burleigh in Milwaukee.

This has been the Emergency Blogging System.

February 7, 2010

Obamaese

by @ 12:25. Filed under Miscellaneous.

I’ve periodically translated different phrases that President Obama uses on a recurring basis.  As an aside, can anyone think of a prior President who was so dependent on a small, recurring set of phrases?  Anyway, it’s been a while since I’ve published these in a coherent fashion.  As Obama and the Democrats become more vocal as they try to figure out which direction is up, I thought it would be helpful to publish these so that you can have them in the back of your mind as you hear published statements.

If you have any phrases that you’re aware of and that I haven’t captured, drop them to me at Shoebox@norunnyeggs.com.  I’ll provide a proper translation and include them in future updates.

I don’t want to run – should always be followed by “but I will take over.”

As I have repeatedly said – the fact that you haven’t agreed with me in the past on this issue is not a reason that I should reconsider my position. Rather, it is a reflection of your lack of intelligence and reverence for my omnipotence.

Shovel Ready – any project that rational taxpayers would vote you out of office for if you had voted to fund it.

Stimulus – a spending bill that contains “Shovel Ready” projects that is passed only with Democrat support

Uniquely Qualified – an individual who is either a tax cheat or has other ethical issues such that they wouldn’t be hired for and can only get a role through appointment to a Democrat legislator or Democrat Administration role.

Czar – An unelected, unaccountable bureaucrat, whose purpose is to expand government programs, imposes regulation, hire more conscripts for SEIU and reduce freedom for ordinary Americans.

Let me be clear – A phrase preceding a statement that certainly won’t be clear and is probably a lie.

Unprecedented – Does not mean “unprecedented” in the context of American history. Rather, it is unprecedented in the experience of Obama. Thus, he has no reference point from which to view or address the specific issue.

Inherited from the previous administration – I know this has nothing to do with other administrations. If I couldn’t blame those guys, how else could I get you to agree to the suicidal proposal that now follows?

I will not rest – I really don’t care what you or anyone else says about this matter. I will push this issue no matter how unpopular or how damaging it is to America. In fact, the louder you complain, the more sure I am that I am right!

February 6, 2010

Toasting the House of Lords, Part II

by @ 11:12. Filed under Miscellaneous.

Many on the left are now complaining that the Senate Republicans’ willingness to filibuster any major legislation has somehow tainted the process of legislating.  Or, as Jacob Weisberg writes in slate.com, the filibuster rule, ” . . . has devolved into a super-majority threshold for any important legislation.”  And to that charge I make two points: 1) Yes; and 2) that is the way it is supposed to be.

As hard as it is for liberals and progressives to accept, this country was founded on the notion that government action (especially action by the central government) should be viewed with suspicion.  Large scale changes dictated from Washington should not easily pass.  When one political party controls the presidency and both houses of Congress, the only protection against an over zealous government is the requirement that the controlling party must obtain at least some support from the minority party.

I hope some day we can actually turn this ship around and start moving back toward a constitutionally constrained government.  In the meantime, the only hope is to slow the ship down, which gives us a better chance to turn back before hitting the iceberg known as socialism.

February 5, 2010

Friday Hot Read – Matthew Continetti’s “The Assault on Paul Ryan”

by @ 9:59. Filed under Politics - National.

The Weekly Standard‘s Matthew Continetti deconstructs the One Week Hate unleased by the Left upon Congressman Paul Ryan (R-WI, and my Congresscritter):

Key fact: Ryan’s plan preserves the current entitlement system for everyone over the age of 55. The rest of us will see dramatic changes in the structure of Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and the tax code–changes the CBO says will solve the long-term budget problem, in ways that increase individual choice and limit government’s scope. If nothing is done, America faces high interest rates, inflation, and economy-crushing tax rates. Is this the future Democrats prefer? After all, they have provided no alternative way to achieve the Roadmap’s outcomes.

As a matter of fact, they do prefer that to one with low interest rates, low inflation and low tax rates, especially if that invovles a limited scope of government and increased individual choice. In fact, the Left is more afraid of limits on government and the corresponding increase in individual freedom than they are about going the route of the Soviet Union.

Never Allow A Crisis To Go To Waste

by @ 5:10. Filed under Economy, Politics - National.

Talking just days after the election as he talked about the challengesPresident elect Obama faced, Rahm Emanuel made his famous quote:

Never allow a crisis to go to waste.

Emanuel explained this quote by saying that extreme circumstances allow you the opportunity to do big things.  The Democrat trilogy of Obama, Reid and Pelosi have spent the first 13 months of the Obama administration fulfilling Emanuel’s prophecy.

Health care “reform”, cap and trade, take over of portions of the financial and automotive industry, moving terror trials to New York and appointing Cabinet memebers and Czars who are out right Marxists are all examples of the Obama Administration doing “big things” because they thought they could.

The response to Obama’s action have been definite and specific.

Beginning as early as April of last year, people gathered in various parts of the country under the banner of Tea Parties.  Initially, these gatherings were a general protest against ever growing government, the taxes required to support it and the freedom that it extinguished. 

As time went on, the tea parties came to be a lead organization for protests against the attempt to take over the health care industry via the proposed health care “reform.”  Later, they became a major driver in the near victory of Doug Hoffman in NY.  Most recently, the financial support from those aligned with the tea parties allowed Scott Brown to be elected to the seat previously owned by Ted Kennedy and along with it, defeat Obama’s desire to control the health care industry.

It’s clear that much of the American population, including those affiliated with the tea parties, have grown tired of President Obama’s approach.  Whether it is ideology, naievete or stupidity, it is clear that Obama’s policies are driving us quickly to the edge of a financial cliff.

This week, President Obama proposed a nearly $4T budget with a deficit of nearly $1.6T.  These number are obscene by any definition.  What makes the situation move beyond obscene to grotesque is Obama’s chiding that we must become fiscally responsible and that somehow these numbers are a result of President George Bush’s making.

Folks, this budget needs to be defeated.  We need to do to it what was done to health care reform.  We need to take it apart line by line, word by word and expose it to the American people.  Unless Americans are unwilling to make any sacrifices, in which case we’re screwed, they will quickly see an audacity similar to that of health care reform and revolt against it.  If we have any hope of reversing the coming fiscal disaster and possibly, the ruin of our country, we need to start now! 

We’ve removed the super majority in the Senate and with it much of Obama’s political capital.  We have the momentum, the American people and principle on our side.  We have elections on the mind of every House member and many endangered Senators.

If ever there was a time to take on a challenge as large as fundamentally changing how budgets are viewed in Washington, now is the time.  If we wait until the next budget, people may be lulled to sleep thinking that the newly elected Republicans will solve the problem.

Rahm Emanuel laid out our came plan perfectly: Never allow a crisis to go to waste.  In extreme circumstances we have the opportunity to do big things.  Doubt me?  Ask the people of Massachusetts!

February 4, 2010

Permanent Casting

by @ 9:50. Filed under Economy, Elections, Politics - National.

Happy Blogiversary to me!  Two years ago I posted for the first time at Norunnyeggs.  Thanks to you for reading, encouraging and correcting me.  Thanks to Steve for his long suffering of allowing me to squat on his site!

Hopefully, the following is worthy of a 2 year blogiversary posting!

Quick, what do the following actors have in common?

Alan Alda, Carroll O’Connor, Ted Danson, James Garner and Kelsey Grammer.

Each of these actors, while having a varied and successful career having played numerous other characters, are immediately recognized for a single role that they played.  Alan Alda is forever Hawkeye from MASH.  Carroll O’Connor is immortalized as Archie Bunker.  Ted Danson is Sam Malone, James Garner is Jim Rockford (or Bret Maverick if you’re of a certain age) and Kelsey Grammer was Frasier Crane across two long running sitcoms.  These actors are victims of typecasting. 

Typecasting occurs when an actor or actress becomes so associated with a type of role, or specific role that no matter how hard they try, they are never able to fully keep people from thinking of a new role as an extension of the role they were type-casted as.  Typecasting varies in severity.  Some people, like James Garner, while fondly remembered for a role, go on to have very successful careers with other roles and genres.  In the most severe cases, typecasting can be so severe that actors or actresses are unable to get another role beyond the one that they were typecast in.  The most notorious of this level of typecasting was George Reeves who once he became Superman, was Superman even on TV shows that had no connection to the character.

President Obama has released his budget proposal for the next year.  His budget encompasess total spending of $3.8 trillion and a deficit of $1.56 trillion.

While President Obama has taken nothing from the Scott Brown victory, numerous Democrats in both the House and the Senate seem to be attempting to position themselves as aligned with the fiscal sensitivities of the populous.  From the WSJ:

“I guess I don’t understand…the vision of the administration when it comes to putting in place economic policy that works for our nation in today’s economy and the economic climate today,” Sen. Lincoln said during the same hearing with Mr. Geithner.

and:

“I don’t know anybody in business who hires an employee because they’re going to get a tax credit,” said Rep. Thompson during the hearing of the House Ways and Means Committee.

There are scores of additional examples of Democrats now trying to convince their constituents that they aren’t aligned with those tax and spend liberals in Congress.

The problem for those Democrats now attempting to become the next Ron Paul is that nearly every one of them seem to have limits to their new found fiscal conservatism.  From the Baltimore Sun:

A headline on the 2010 campaign website of Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-Ark.), blares her opposition to Obama’s farm budget: “Blanche stands up for Arkansas farm families,”

And

Sen. Arlen Specter (D-Pa.), a recent party-switcher, questioned trade policies battering the steel industry. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) asked about health care for first responders involved in the Sept. 11attack. The message from Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-Ca.): “California is hurting.”

And

Elsewhere around the country, Rep. Suzanne Kosmas — a freshman Democrat from a Republican leaning part of Florida — minced no words in complaining about Obama’s proposed cuts to the NASA budget. The space industry is one of the largest employers in her district.

“The president’s proposal lacks a bold vision for space exploration and begs for the type of leadership that he has described as critical for inspiring innovation for the 21st century,” said Kosmas.

And

In the swing state of Missouri, Democratic Senate candidate Robin Carnahan wasted no time this week denouncing Obama’s budget as profligate.

“I’m disappointed in the president’s budget recommendation,” she said. “Missouri families have to balance their checkbooks and our government is no different.”

Clearly, Democrats are trying to show their fiercer, budget hawk side.  After all, it wasn’t just the threat of health care that got Scott Brown elected and has put a number of the Dem’s jobs in jeopardy.  Equally, the ever ballooning spending and deficit has also gotten people’s attention.  Also clearly, while they talk budget hawk out of one side of their mouth, the Dem’s hawkishness ends right at the end of the particular program or jurisdiction that they have their nose stuck into!

As hard as Democrats may try from now until November, to paint themselves as characters other than the fiscally  irresponsible characters they are, it won’t work.  The Dems have become victims of their own “success”.  They were swept into office promising not one, but a whole flock of chickens in every pot, never considering how they were going to pay for those chickens.  Now that they find that those chickens actually cost money, and they don’t have any, they are left with the choice of not providing the chickens or attempting to con the public into believing that continuing investment we get from China each month is not really anything to worry about. 

The public is not buying a word of the Dems attempt to claim fiscal responsibility.  Like George Reeves the Dems are irreversibly typecast.  Try as they may, no one, at least not for this election cycle, will believe their claims that they can actually play a different role.

Open Thread Thursday – Demon Sheep edition

by @ 8:06. Filed under Open Thread Thursday.

If you haven’t noticed the #demonsheep phenomenon on Twitter, head here for Carly Fiorina’s glass-house rock-throw at one of her opponents in the California GOP gubernatorial race. There can be only one song for today…

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I6U4XakchT0[/youtube]

I’ve done enough wonky posts for a while, so somebody, anybody, step up and feed me material.

February 3, 2010

Another look at the mid-term Social Security crater

by @ 22:41. Filed under Social Security crater.

(H/Ts – Dad29 and Hot Air Headlines)

Back in September, Ed Morrissey found, and I expanded upon, a dire look at the Social Security “Trust” Funds from the Congressional Budget Office that said the combined OASDI “Trust” funds would start running primary (cash) deficits in FY2010 and run them for much of the decade. Allan Sloan over at Fortune found some worse news in the January 2010 CBO budget outlook:

Instead of helping to finance the rest of the government, as it has done for decades, our nation’s biggest social program needs help from the Treasury to keep benefit checks from bouncing — in other words, a taxpayer bailout.

No one has officially announced that Social Security will be cash-negative this year. But you can figure it out for yourself, as I did, by comparing two numbers in the recent federal budget update that the nonpartisan CBO issued last week.

The first number is $120 billion, the interest that Social Security will earn on its trust fund in fiscal 2010 (see page 74 of the CBO report). The second is $92 billion, the overall Social Security surplus for fiscal 2010 (see page 116).

This means that without the interest income, Social Security will be $28 billion in the hole this fiscal year, which ends Sept. 30….

If you go to the aforementioned pages in the CBO update and consult the tables on them, you see that the budget office projects smaller cash deficits (about $19 billion annually) for fiscal 2011 and 2012. Then the program approaches break-even for a while before the deficits resume….

I did so, and just like in September, I found some rather “curious” claims of economic boom. In fact, the new “boom” is even more unbelievable than the old “boom” (note; the September 2009 CBO GDP estimates come from summer 2009 budget update).


Click for the full-size chart

Between this fiscal year and FY2019, instead of a cumulative Social Security primary deficit of $100 billion, we’ll have a cumulative Social Security primary deficit of $157 billion. That is, of course, if we actually do get all the economic and tax growth that the CBO seems to hope we will. If we don’t, the chart I put together back in September showing just how easy it was to turn the CBO’s hope into red ink as far as the eye can see will be rosy.

That also doesn’t include Obama’s plan for a second round of $250 checks to every Social Security recipient. That is a drag of another $13 billion on this year, which would make this year’s cash deficit somewhere around $51 41 billion.

Revisions/extensions (4:42 pm 2/4/2010) – The internal copy editor failed me, as I made a basic math mistake. Thanks to Hot Air commenter WashJeff for the catch once Ed Morrissey made the news a front page post.

We Still Have To Lead!

by @ 13:01. Filed under Politics - National.

Refusing to take any message of “you’ve gone too far” out of the Scott Brown victory, President Obama told Senate Democrats that he is moving full steam ahead with his agenda:

“We’ve got to finish the job on health care. We’ve got to finish the job on financial regulatory reform. We’ve got to finish the job, even though it’s hard.”

Defiantly, Obama blamed Republicans for the inability to pass the health care legislation.  Never mind that up until Scott Brown, Republicans had no was to delay the legislation had Democrats themselves been united.

Obama urged the Senators to forge ahead with even greater urgency.  With regard to the loss of the Senate super majority, Obama said:

We still have to lead.

Leading is well and good.  In fact, I’d welcome some rational leadership from this administration.  The challenge with leading is that you should have an idea of where the path you are leading along goes.  If you don’t, charging ahead full steam without any caution could create some unexpected problems:

Wednesday Hot Read – Warner Todd Huston’s “Illinois Shows Limitations of Tea Party Movement”

Warner Todd Huston has some lessons for the Tea Party movements in the wake of yesterday’s elections in Illinois:

Let’s take the race for Senate in Illinois as exhibit “A.” Of course the good old boys in the state party went with Mark Kirk, the center left candidate from a northern suburb of Chicago. He was the he-can-win candidate and the establishment choice. Not one Tea Party group, though, wants Kirk and for good reason — and I heartily concur with them, as it happens. So who was the “Tea Party candidate,” the one meant to beat out Kirk, the one backed by the newly found power of the Tea Party movement? There wasn’t one. There was three.

Sadly, the Tea Partiers in Illinois split their vote all up. Some Tea Party Groups went with Don Lowery and some went with Patrick Hughes. A few even went with John Arrington. Hughes, of course, was the only one that had even a remote chance as far as voter polls were concerned. Hughes at least registered in the polls, Lowery and Arrington barely showed up at all….

The sad fact is that the Illinois Tea Party groups didn’t spend any time organizing, polling each other, coordinating with each other. There was no effort from one Tea Party group to reach out to another one and work together. They all stayed in their own little area, met in their own little meetings, had their own little candidates forum, and made their own little decisions….

One thing is sure, if Tea Party groups want to become a political force for good, they have to coordinate farther out than their own towns and county. If they don’t they will risk making themselves irrelevant just as they did in the Senate race and Governor race in Illinois. That means organizing, whether they like it or not because organization wins elections. It’s just that simple.

The Tea Party folks certainly do not have to take on all the characteristics of the failed Party organizations they oppose. But they must get over this fear of organizing. If they don’t they will not be able to wield the power they might actually have behind them. Worse the parties that are a bit scared of them right now will surely find themselves able to ignore the Tea Parties if they ultimately find no threat from them.

February 2, 2010

4-Block of the Day – The Evolution of The New York Times

by @ 18:50. Filed under Press.

Tom McMahon does it again…

As is my custom when I “borrow” Tom’s 4-Blocks, the comments are off here to encourage you to go on over to his place. Tom truly is one of the unsung geniuses of the Cheddarsphere.

Social Security on the brink

by @ 14:12. Filed under Social Security crater.

Last month, I explored the very-disappointing preliminary Social Security numbers, using the December Monthly Treasury Statement and the investment holdings report from the Social Security Administration. The time-series report for December 2009 from the SSA’s Office of the Chief Actuary is finally available, and the news is even worse.

First, a note; while the other reports included an acceleration of some Social Security payments from January into December, the time-series report does not. That allows an “apples-to-apples” comparison of both monthly and yearly changes.

Also, I still don’t have a satisfactory answer why the various numbers given for the trust fund assets don’t reconcile. I don’t expect to be able to give an explanation until the January time-series numbers are released.

Total income, including $58.514 billion in misleadingly-labeled “interest” was $105.475 billion in December, both within the margin of rounding of my earlier numbers. Total outgo was $58.268 billion, which while higher than the margin of rounding than my earlier estimate is still within the margin of estimation. That makes the December primary (cash) deficit a record $11.307 billion (nearly double the previous modern-day record set in November 2009 and more than double the primary deficit in December 2008), and the 2009 calendar-year primary surplus only $3.338 billion, easily the worst modern-day 12-month performance.

Now, the bad news. Unless January and February revenues increase by at least 2.75% over the revenues received in those months in 2009, Social Security will be running 12-month primary deficits by February. Unfortunately, the total tax take doesn’t exactly suggest that level of short-term turnaround is in the cards. The January 29, 2010 Daily Treasury Report (the last business day in January) has January 2010 total tax revenues at $156 billion, down from January 2009’s $168 billion and January 2008’s $181 billion. While the January 2009 Social Security income was about 2.2% higher than the January 2008 income because the recession affected high-income earners disproportionately, this year’s total tax drop is greater than last year’s.

Projecting forward through the rest of 2010, the situation is even more bleak. It will take an over-4% increase in tax revenue each and every month this year for Social Security to be above the break-even line at the end of the year, and that only knocks the underwater point to sometime in 2011.

The ugly is that does not take into account the $250 “makeup” checks Obama wants to hand out to everybody on Social Security because there was no cost-of-living increase this year. That’s a drain of $13.5 billion, or a bit short of a quarter of the monthly outgo.

How much of the deficit is Obama’s fault?

by @ 10:22. Filed under Politics - National.

The “Bush’s fault” theme has been the favorite mantra of the ObamiNation, from its head to its foot soldiers, since Teh Won burst onto the scene. With that in mind, let’s update the chart I posted yesterday, itself an update of a chart the Washington Post put together during the debate on the first Obama budget last March, with another “baseline” projection from the CBO, this one from January 8, 2009, going out to FY2019.


Click for the full-size chart

Do note that the 2009 CBO baseline includes absolutely nothing that was passed in 2009, and very specifically does not include Porkul…er, the “stimulus” pack…er, the “Grow Government Act of 2009”. It also does, like the 2010 CBO baseline, assume the Bush tax cuts expire on schedule. Let’s run some numbers:

  • In FY2009, Obama and his fellow Democrats added an additional $0.227 trillion in deficit spending (once again, I will use a single “base”) to what they “inherited” in deficit spending.
  • In FY2010, they will add an additional $0.853 trillion in deficit spending, more than what they “inherited” in deficit spending.
  • In FY2011, Obama wants to add an additional $0.769 trillion in deficit spending, close to double of the deficit spending he “inherited”.
  • In FY2012, Obama wants to add an additional $0.564 trillion in deficit spending, more than double of the deficit spending he “inherited”.
  • In his first 4 years (and hopefully, his only 4), Obama has added and wants to add $2.413 trillion in deficit spending on top of $2.651 trillion of “inherited” deficits.
  • Through 2019 (the last year the comparison can be made), Obama wants to add $6.177 trillion in deficit spending on top of the $4.321 trillion he “inherited”.

Given that, on January 20, 2009, the day that Obama assumed the office of President, the publicly-held debt (i.e. the cumulative deficit spending from the founding of the country up through the end of the George W. Bush administration) was $6.307 trillion (and that included a significant portion of the the 2009 “inherited” deficit), it is a mind-numbing number.

Bonus item – Speaking of that public debt amount, the public debt on the last business day of the Clinton administration (January 19, 2001) was $5.728 trillion. At the close of business this past Friday (1/29/2010), it was $7.759 trillion.

Revisions/extensions (3:39 pm 2/2/2010) – (H/T – Karl) Keith Hennessey provides more analysis, this time based on percentage of GDP instead of absolute dollars. Behold his more-colorful chart…

Do note that Hennessey assigns the entirety of the FY2009 deficit to Bush due to the effects of TARP. I dealt with that by using the CBO’s 2009 “baseline” from January 2009, which assigned just under $1.2 trillion of the FY2009 deficit to existing policies. Without the FY2009 budget, Bush’s deficits averaged 2.0% of GDP (that black line in the middle of Bush’s column).

However, neither that nor removing the first three years of “recovery” reduces Obama to anything near Bush deficit spending levels. The takeaway from Hennessey (emphasis in the original):

You can see that each of these comparisons, which allow you to “not count” the recovery years in the average for Obama, still result in average budget deficits that far exceed even the worst portrayal of the Bush Administration’s average.

In fact, the smallest annual deficit proposed by President Obama is 3.6% of GDP, in 2018 and 2019, the two years after his second term would end. The lowest during his hypothetical eight years would be 3.7% in 2017 and 2018. The lowest proposed budget deficits in a hypothetical “Obama decade” would exceed the Bush average budget deficit, even if we assign most of the TARP spending to Bush.

This leaves an open question: Which is the decade of profligacy?

R&E part 2 (6:23 pm 2/2/2010) – Thanks for the link love, and the treasure trove of links, go out to P-Mac. It’s all about making government bigger at the expense of everybody, but mostly the aspiring-to-be-rich.

R&E part 3 (11:50 am 2/3/2010) – Somehow I forgot to link to the January 2009 CBO report. Also, down in the comments, I explored both what keeping the third of the Bush tax cuts that Obama doesn’t want to keep and what keeping the Bush tax cuts in their entirety would have done had Obama and the Democrats not loaded up on the spending last year. Suffice it to say that the problem is not the tax cuts.

Totalitarian Tendencies

by @ 10:03. Filed under Miscellaneous.

Doublespeak is one of the hallmarks of corrupt government. That highly relied upon source, Wikipedia, defines doublespeak as follows: “Doublespeak (sometimes called doubletalk) is language constructed to disguise or distort its actual meaning.” I will grant you that all politicians engage in this behavior to some degree. But just like a salesman’s “puffing” of a product can cross over into fraud, there is a point at which doublespeak crosses over into the realm of dangerous. Our President has crossed that line.

President Obama has responded to fear of excessive government spending by discussing his desire to get our federal deficits under control. He then rolls out a $3.83 trillion budget proposal. The assertion that such a budget proposal indicates any concern whatsoever for deficit spending is beyond comprehension. Doublespeak.

But it gets worse. Obama then goes on to repeat is mantra that it is all Bush’s fault. Believe me, I am no defender of Bush’s domestic policy or spending habits. But Bush’s last budget was $3.1 trillion. Obama has increased that number by 25%. But get this. The largest deficit under Bush was $407 billion. The current fiscal year deficit (Obama’s first) is about $1.5 trillion (the actual final number has not yet been determined).  That is nearly four times Bush’s final deficit. And under Obama’s current proposal, next year’s deficit will be about $1.8 trillion. Using that standard, one could argue that Bush was down right frugal.

Obama’s next doublespeak comes in the form of a promise to fix our profligate spending habits by imposing a freeze on discretionary spending. Let me make it really simple. Let’s say I told my family that we really need to get our living expenses down, and here is my plan. This year we are going to increase overall household spending by about 25%. We’ll do the same in 2011. And during that time we are going to increase spending on shirts by 24%. Then, starting in 2012 we will freeze shirt spending for three years. Voila!! Birdman household budget fixed!!

I literally pray to God that people see through this nonsense and understand the peril we face if we continue down this path. This president literally frightens me.

Milwaukee voucher students graduate at a higher rate than MPS students

by @ 7:29. Filed under Education.

A new report from University of Minnesota sociologist John Robert Warren shows participants in the Milwaukee Parental Choice Program graduated at a 18% higher rate than students in Milwaukee Public Schools in 2008, or 77% versus 65%:

High school dropouts earn less, contribute less to the tax base, and are more likely to go to prison — sobering facts that underscore the importance of a new study showing that the graduation rate for students in Milwaukee’s 20-year-old school choice program was 18 percent higher than for students in the Milwaukee Public Schools (MPS).

The findings, from a leading national expert who analyzed six years of data, estimate that 3,352 additional Milwaukee students would have received diplomas between 2003 and 2008 if public school graduation rates had matched those of low-income students using educational vouchers. Based on a separate study reported by the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s Erin Richards, the annual impact from 3,352 more MPS graduates would include an additional $21.2 million in personal income and $3.6 million in extra tax revenue.

“This new study deserves the attention of state and federal officials — including President Barack Obama — who seek education reforms that produce solid results,” said Jeff Monday, principal of Milwaukee’s nationally recognized Messmer High School.

The author of the new study, University of Minnesota Professor John Robert Warren, estimated a 2008 graduation rate of 77% for school choice students and 65% for public school students. The difference — twelve percentage points — translates into an 18% higher rate for voucher students. Dr. Warren found a similar average difference for the six-year period of 2003 through 2008….

The higher graduation rates for students in Milwaukee’s private school choice program are noteworthy because per pupil taxpayer support for choice students ($6,442) is less than half the $14,011 spent in the Milwaukee Public Schools.

In the new study, Professor Warren explains that eligibility for the choice program is limited to students from low-income families while “students in MPS schools come from a much broader range of social and economic backgrounds.”

Once again, it is not either the amount of money the parents have or the amount of money dumped into teachers, administrators, staff or facilities; it is motivated students, parents and teachers that make the difference in whether an education system is a success or a failure.

Hey, Hey, Ho, Ho, Shoebox is Now Free To Go!

by @ 5:21. Filed under Free Shoebox.

I came home from work and found a letter envelope from Homeland Security. Not sure that I really wanted to know the answer, I opened the envelope and found the following letter:

A few observations:

  • I didn’t “may have experienced” anything!  I did experience it!  They make it sound like I’m some tin foil hat type reporting that I’ve been abducted by aliens!
  • “DHS cannot ensure your travel will always be delay-free…For instance, an airline might still require a brief period of time to comply with identity verification requirements prior to issuing a boarding pass”– Huh?  Who’s driving the bus?  No wonder people get caught for no apparent reason!  Multiple bureaucracies trying to align their methods, procedures and databases.  Oh, yeah, that’s sure to be a smooth running process!
  • “Based on our analysis of those persons who have applied for redress through DHS TRIP, more than 99 percent are not on a Federal watch list.”  You must be kidding!  The program that is supposed to be ensuring our air safety has a 99 percent false positive?  With that high of a false positive, how many positives (people who should be on the list) do you think they are missing?  I guess this explains all the stories of grannies and six year olds being frisked and taken aside by airport TSA!

I’ve spent a considerable amount of my career involved with interactions with customers.  If one of my staff brought this letter to me and said they were about to send it to a customer, my reaction would be, “Are you nuts?  Even if it’s true, why would you be sending a letter to a customer telling them we’re incapable of doing our job?”  I would follow that up with, “If this is true, we have a lot of work to do!  We’re starting today and not stopping until we have a process that we can stand behind that is efficient and for which we can tell our customers how, what and why we are doing what we are doing!”

I’ll be flying again within the next couple of weeks.  I’ll let you know if any of this gobbledygook actually translates to “I can fly” or whether I’ll be again relying on my Peter Pan happy thought to provide air transport!

Stay tuned.

February 1, 2010

How’s that “freeze” working out?

by @ 16:37. Filed under Politics - National.

In last week’s SOTU speech, Barack Obama suggested a 3-year non-defense/TARP/bailout discretionary spending “freeze”. Today, he unleashed a budget that, put together with his FY2009 and FY2010 budgets, will result in, by his administration’s own admission, another deficit of over $1 trillion ($1.27 trillion to be exact) in FY2011, a historic first-term (FY2009-FY2012) $5.07 trillion deficit (with a projected 4-year “low” of $0.83 trillion in FY2012), a “minimum” deficit of $0.71 trillion (in 2014), and a ten-year projected $8.53 trillion deficit between FY2011 and FY2020. Oh yeah; this year’s budget, at a projected deficit of $1.56 trillion, will top last year’s record $1.43 trillion deficit.

Those numbers are significantly worse than the “baseline” estimates released by the Congressional Budget Office just last week. The comparable numbers from the CBO estimates are a $1.44 trillion deficit this year, a $0.980 trillion deficit in FY2011, a $0.65 trillion deficit in FY2012, a “first-term” deficit of $4.48 trillion, a ten-year $6.05 trillion deficit between FY2011 and FY2020, and a “minimum” deficit of $0.48 trillion (also in FY2014).

A couple of side notes before I continue. First, while I could have used billions for the numbers under $1 trillion, I decided to keep the numbers in the same “base”. In the chart below, since the Washington Post used billions in their original, I decided to do so in my remake as well.

Second, a word of note about the CBO “baseline” – it assumes that the only changes to current tax law are those already part of law (e.g. the Bush tax cuts expire in their entirety, and the Alternate Minimum Tax doesn’t get its annual “fix), and that spending on discretionary spending increases at “only” the rate of inflation.

I’m sure you remember the chart from the Washington Post produced near the end of March comparing the OMB estimate of deficits in Obama’s FY2010 to the CBO estimate. Since Kevin Binversie appears to be looking for an update, I’ll provide one.


Click for the full-sized chart

Revisions/extensions (6:55 pm 2/1/2010) – In one of my previous drafts, I had the 10-year minimum deficit as projected by OMB today. Somehow, I had lost it in the published version. I have put it back in.

Yet Another Inconvenient Truth – Number 3,287

by @ 5:57. Filed under Global "Warming".

I told you last week about a new problem that that IPCC had with it’s MMGW “documentation.”  That problem was that they had folks speaking as “experts” when in fact, at least one was a journalist!

WattsUp.com has the latest IPCC gaffe.  It turns out that their claims of ice reductions on mountain tops was based on an article from a climbing magazine!  Yup, again, no scientific measurement.  Again, nothing but anecdotal hearsay by a people who no ability to comprehend that yes, climates do change but that doesn’t mean the change is caused by man.

I’m pretty sure that we are now just days away from finding that the core theory that global warming comes from CO2 emissions, was originally published in a 1930 Buck Rogers episode and in fact, has never been factually examined!

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