No Runny Eggs

Today, the Illinois Congressional seat vacated by Dennis Hastert was turned over to the Democrats.   So the question is:   Is this a harbinger?   Does this portend poorly for Republicans in November?

I think the answer is both Yes and No.

In the 2006 general election, Dennis Hastert was reelected to his seat by a comfortable 60% to 40% margin.   Approximately 190,000 people voted in that election.   That means approximately 114K voted Republican and 76K voted Democrat

In the 2008 primaries, approximately 155,000 people voted in the district.   Republicans had approximately 51% of that vote.   The Illinois election was a part of “Super Tuesday, the Original.”   This is Obama’s home state and while the Obamasm hadn’t yet reached the climax seen in later elections it was evident.   Democrats saw a vote rate in the primary, that was 72% of the 2004 general election while Republicans only saw 38%.

The most recent poll of SurveyUSA gave us some perspective on the views of the district.   52% of the repsondents say that the tax cuts should be made permanent.   37% labeled themself Republican, 33% Democrat and 25% independent.   One last observation, based on the survey, Jim Oberweis, the Republican candidate, had an unfavorable rating of 49%.   I wouldn’t call this a Red, Red district but it would seem to still lean that way.

The good news…I don’t think this district has actually swung to the Democrats.   Rather than a swing to the Democrats, the primary vote appears to reflect what Illinois overall saw and what many other states have experienced; a large Democratic turnout due to Obamasm and a Republican turnout that wasn’t enthused.

I’m no expert in IL politics, but from what I’ve read about Oberweis, he’s done plently along the way to offend folks and that seems to include Republican party folks.   When you see an unfavorable rating of 49%, there’s more than just Democrats that don’t like you.   With a 49% unfavorable rating we all believe that Hillary is unelectable, how can it be any different for Oberweis?   My point is, I think this election was lost largely on the candidate being a poor one and one that couldn’t get folks motivated to turn out.  

Special elections are always tough.   Turn outs are almost always a fraction of the regular election turn out.   This election, saw an overall voter turnout of about 50% of a general vote.   However  the vote for the Democratic candidate  garnered 66% of the prior general election Democratic votes.

Oberweis wasn’t able to get a turnout.   IL 14 has about 185K self identified Republicans, 160K self identified conservatives.   It appears that Oberweis wasn’t able to get much more than 22% of the  base to vote for him.   My guess is that that ties right back to that 49% unfavorable rating.

The good news….It looks like the vote in IL 14 had more to do with a poor Republican candidate than a desire for “change”.  

And the lesson to be learned?   In some ways, Oberweis had the same issues that McCain will face in November.   The fundamentals of the electoral map haven’t changed much from 2004 and the Democrats are likely to be highly motivated with their Obamasms.     McCain does differ from Oberweis in that his favorable/unfavorable rating has always been very positive.  

In the end, like Oberweis, McCain’s outcome will be dictated by his ability to motivate the base and get it to turn out.  If McCain is able to generate some enthusiasm he  could win the election.   If the base stays home or is apathetic, he’s done.