For those of you who haven’t been paying attention to Duncan Hunter, and to a leser extent, Fred Thompson, pay attention. Jeff Head has been tracking the growth and modernization of the People’s Liberation Army Navy (that would be the Red Chinese), and he’s come out with his beginning-of-2008 update. There are two big areas of concern from where I sit:
– The biggest is the explosive growth in the amphibious capacity. Many naval observers have said the only thing that has kept Taiwan from being absorbed by Red China has been the inability of the ChiComs to get their massive army over water; they’re rapidly rectifying that oversight.
– Almost as troubling, especially with the de-emphasis on ASW in the US Navy, is a modernization of the PLAN’s submarine fleet, both attack and missile subs. Those quieter attack subs give them the theoretical ability to make the Western Pacific a very dangerous place for the 7th Fleet, while modern missile subs give them a second-nuclear strike capability.
I’m not as concerned, at least yet, about the continuing work on the ex-Varyag. At the point the Red Chinese are in their quest to be the worldwide empire, it does not really enhance their offensive capability. However, it does in the interim give them another way to bloody the 7th Fleet and in the longer term, it gives them expertise in carrier operations that, barring another paradigm shift I can’t yet forsee, they will need to march beyond what the Japanese called the Southern Resource Area 70 years ago.
