I decided to do some rough analysis of the Gallup Confidence in Institutions poll mentioned below, and we are becoming far more cynical across the board. First, I decided to average out the confidence among the “core” institutions asked about most of the years the survey was around (biannual 1973-1983, annual 1984-present). This includes church/organized religion (in every survey), the military (in every survey except 1973), the Supreme Court (in every survey), banks (in every survey since 1979), public schools (in every survey except 1975), newspapers (in every survey except 1975 and 1977), Congress (in every survey except 1987), organized labor (in every survey except 1989), the Presidency (in every survey since 1991), TV news (in since 1993) and big business (in every survey except 1987 and 1989). I did that to avoid some “one-year-wonders”, like Wall Street, power utilities and small business, as well as items that are at best moderately related to the early years such as the medical system as a whole, HMOs and the police (all added in 1993 or later). Let’s trace the decline of confidence, from the “most-confident” year to the “least-confident” year (note; except as noted, the years listed include at least 9 of the 11 categories outlined above):
1975 – 47.8% (this includes includes 6 of the 11 categories)
1979 – 47.8% (a bit lower than 1975, but rounding makes it look like a tie)
1977 – 47.6% (includes only 7 categories)
1987 – 47.4% (includes only 7 categories)
1989 – 46.3% (includes only 6 categories)
1985 – 46.1%
1991 – 45.3%
1986 – 45.2%
1988 – 44.8%
1984 – 43.7%
1973 – 43.6% (includes only 7 categories)
2003 – 42.8% (the best year that includes all 11 categories)
2004 – 42.3%
2002 – 42.0%
2001 – 41.5%
1998 – 41.3%
1990 and 1999 – 41.3% (this is a tie)
1990 and 2000 – 40.8% (this is another tie)
1981 – 40.0%
1997 – 39.9%
1993 – 38.9%
1996 – 38.7%
1995 – 38.5%
2005 – 38.4%
1992 – 37.3%
2006 – 36.9%
1994 – 36.4%
2007 – 31.3%
There’s a few things that do jump out, but they’re too much to discuss in the main post. Do notice where 2007 is, and by what margin.
Next, let’s take a look at the individual categories:
– The Supreme Court, public schools, newspapers, Congress, TV news, organized labor, the Presidency, the medical system as a whole (in since 1993), and big business (tied with 2006) all had their worst years ever.
– Religion, police (in since 1993) and HMOs (in since 1999) posted their 2nd-worst performances ever, with the police tying its 1994 and 2000 performances and HMOs tying their 2001 and 2006 performances (religion did worse in 2002, police did worse in 1993, and HMOs did worse in 2002).
– The justice system (in since 1993) tied with 1996 and 1997 for its 3rd-worst performance (it did worse in 1994).
– Banks, which is still below its historic 44.8% average, does manage to stay out of the bottom 5.
– The military does still beat its historic 65.7% confidence average.
I don’t know where to begin, so pipe up if you have an idea. Oh, this will replace Open Thread Thursday this week.
