Comments on: Wisconsin Senate Recall Elections – Round 2 post-mortem

By: docweasel

docweasel — Sat, 23 Jul 2011 08:31:43 +0000

Ugh. I read this at Hot Air, then came here to see if it were any more comprehensible. Disappointed. Without a scorecard, it’s impossible to understand what you’re talking about. I may be the only one confused, but I think it would help if you would put an [R] and [D] after the people you are talking about. These are extremely obscure political figures, even if you live in Wisc., I’m guessing, and I can’t even get the gist of your nub of who is ahead, who is the incumbent, who is in what party, etc. Party designation and [I] Incumbent markings would be helpful, to me and I’m guessing to others as well.

By: PaulM

PaulM — Sat, 23 Jul 2011 00:46:53 +0000

The fact is, the R’s ran a fatally flawed challenger against an incumbent who won his last election by a considerable margin.

To expect your C-team guy to beat the other gies’ A-team guy on his home turf is unrealistic, and I think not much should be read into it.

By: Mr. D

Mr. D — Thu, 21 Jul 2011 17:42:17 +0000

It’s tough to tell what’s going on from across the St. Croix, but from what I’m seeing and hearing Sheila Harsdorf should be okay. The 3rd party ads are matching what Moore’s supporters are putting out pretty much on a 1:1 basis, especially on the Twin Cities television stations. The video of Moore shrieking “WE BREATHE UNION” and shaking her fist like Mussolini is especially effective.

By: steveegg

steveegg — Thu, 21 Jul 2011 14:36:01 +0000

In reply to dad29. They, by and large, disappeared. Even though Nygren wasn't running a write-in campaign, a couple of bloggers who will remain nameless were encouraging it, and only 5 of those in Little Suamico availed themselves of the write-in option.

By: dad29

dad29 — Thu, 21 Jul 2011 14:13:23 +0000

I concede that your mastery of the numbers is FAR greater than mine, and likely of 99% of the population as a whole.

Having said that, the Suamico results tell us that ~150 (R) Suamico voters disappeared after considering the possibility of voting for a semi-crook (R) candidate.

Frankly, I would NOT have voted for the guy, period. He smells enough so that I can detect the odor 150 miles south of him.

By: steveegg

steveegg — Thu, 21 Jul 2011 01:33:19 +0000

In reply to Scott.

Which, I believe, is Belling’s point. That positivity is something that at least Shelia Harsdorf and Randy Hopper had better be doing 24/7 as their opponents don’t have the Assembly Democrat baggage.

The other 6 incumbent Republicans can and should mix the positive message with the “Do you really want to go back to the Doyle era of $3 billion deficits?” one. The fine art is what mixture is something that works; if Belling or I knew, we’d be political consultants rather than pundits.

By: steveegg

steveegg — Thu, 21 Jul 2011 01:29:00 +0000

In reply to Aruges.

Until the campaigns “notice” the 3rd-party groups doing that, they have to do it themselves. Frankly, the conservative 3rd-party groups aren’t exactly in the game yet.

Side note – there’s a reason why I put “notice” in scare quotes. The campaigns can’t officially coordinate with the 3rd-party groups. Of course, various liberal 3rd-party groups just happen to be shacked up in the same buildings as certain Dem candidates.

By: Scott

Scott — Thu, 21 Jul 2011 01:27:38 +0000

I saw Governor Walker on Fox Business News last night. He struck me as worried. He said the national unions are expected to drop $20 to $25 million on these recall elections, which he thought would be more than double what the Republicans can be expected to spend. The Democrats will have a huge informational/messaging advantage.

That said, based on reporting I’ve read from Byron York, the GOP has a good story to tell in that some districts are already showing how Walker’s plan is paying off. I’m no political consultant, but I’d bet taht even if the GOP is outspent on advertising, if they mount a positive messaging campaign that emphasizes the recent accomplishments, and stay away from a negative campaign, it might be the way to go. Given the near constant state of protest in WI in recent months, I have to believe many voters are fed up with it and will repond more favorably to positive good news than more negative ads.

By: Aruges

Aruges — Thu, 21 Jul 2011 01:18:55 +0000

In reply to steveegg. It would seem to me that in this situation attacking the opponents record should be the job of the 3rd party ad buyers. The candidates need to be trumpeting their successes, no one else is. Is there any news about the ad strategy of our 3rd party groups?

By: steveegg

steveegg — Thu, 21 Jul 2011 01:07:35 +0000

In reply to Aruges.

There is some truth to that. I can’t answer how the ads are playing out outstate, but here in the Milwaukee area (where both Belling and I are), there isn’t really a focus from Alberta Darling on the positives of the budget repair law. Of course, Sandy Pasch and the Left has been doing everything BUT focusing on that, and as an Assemblywoman, Pasch has a track record to attack. In the other districts except the 10th and the 18th, there is the same dynamic of the Dems running those looking for a promotion from the Assembly.

One of the cardinal rules of campaigning is that an attack cannot be left unchallenged. Another one is that if one’s opponent has a record, especially one that was so recently rejected in the parts of the district he or she does not already represent, by all means use it to full effect. The problem for the Democrats looking for the promotion (outside the “outlier” of the 32nd) is that each of their candidates who already are in the Assembly represents the most-liberal third of the district, and that liberalism, even in the ObamiWave year of 2008, was not shared by the rest of that district.

By: Aruges

Aruges — Thu, 21 Jul 2011 00:49:15 +0000

I was listening to Belling today and he talked about how the Republicans up for recall aren’t trumpeting the good news resulting from the budget repair law and taking credit, instead running mostly negative ads about their opponents, and thus he was becoming pessimistic about the recall elections. Do you think he’s right?