Comments on: It’s Time for a Game Changer

By: Shoebox

Shoebox — Fri, 23 May 2008 22:15:11 +0000

Justin, couldn’t have said it better myself…oh wait, I did! :)
You’re right on all accounts. The hard knock lessons learned in the late 70’s/80s is what has kept a fair amount of $ on the sidelines for alternatives to petroleum. There is still a high degree of skitishness out there. However, when you’ve got people like T. Boone Pickens saying “game over”, I would bet the alternative investments will be good this time around.

By: Justin

Justin — Fri, 23 May 2008 21:45:47 +0000

Thanks to growing up in Wyoming and having some interest in energy stocks, I keep up with this sort of news pretty well.

One of my stocks does research into coal to liquids and into improving heavy crude refining. Their technology is fairly well proven. The problem they’re having is regulatory, and business caution. Nobody wants to be the first adopter to upgrade their refinery to the technology that improves heavy sour crude yields and government hurdles keep delaying the coal to liquid.

Happily the part of Wyoming where I grew up is making quite a push to develop a CTL plant (not related to my stock), which is encouraging, and companies are showing an interest in adopting the improved process for refining.

Companies are cautious because in the 70s and 80s OPEC cut the legs out from under oil shale recovery and coal to liquid efforts and such. Of course in the 70s and 80s China, India, and the rest of South East Asia weren’t so much into development.

I don’t think prices are coming down, so I think there’s reason to be optimistic that these technologies will be further developed.

By: Shoebox

Shoebox — Fri, 23 May 2008 15:35:43 +0000

Dan,
Yes it was but it too was built in the 70’s when Jimmuh was telling the world we needed to add layers in the winter. That plant was converting to natural gas (I think) and natural gas got deregulated shortly after the plant went into service…damndest thing happened, lots of NG showed up and prices plummeted making the plant economically obsolete. Again,the question is what are we willing to bet oil prices will do? If this is a bubble and they come back below $100 then we shut up and ride it out. If you believe peak oil, these suckers can provide a part of the answer.

By: Dan

Dan — Fri, 23 May 2008 14:41:04 +0000

They tried to build a coal gasification plant in Buleah North Dakota but it was a horrible and miserable failure. If this idea is really worth it, get the plant up and running and see where it goes.

By: Shoebox

Shoebox — Fri, 23 May 2008 13:59:43 +0000

Dad29
The technology works without a doubt. It has been used in South Africa by Sasol for years to provide oil there. If AC had issues it was likely with the economics as oil dropped back to $10/barrel after Carter’s nonsense. The economics vary but most estimates I see are breakeven between $45 – $60/barrel. The question becomes do you believe in peak oil and what do you think will happen to oil prices in the future? Crash or higher?

By: dad29

dad29 — Fri, 23 May 2008 13:41:28 +0000

Before you run off and invest your millions on this idea, you should contact a few ex-Allis-Chalmers folks who worked on the concept.

Jimmuh Carter sold the Chairman of A-C on the thing. It is rumored that A-C’s investment into the project was the immediate cause of its demise.

History counts, folks.

By: Daily Pundit » Just One of Many Options

Daily Pundit » Just One of Many Options — Fri, 23 May 2008 13:23:14 +0000

[…] No Runny Eggs Â» Blog Archive Â» It’s Time for a Game Changer […]

By: Shoebox

Shoebox — Fri, 23 May 2008 13:02:29 +0000

Steve, bill-tb
Oil = bad
Coal = VERY bad

This commercial brought to you by “Greenies Unite”

By: steveegg

steveegg — Fri, 23 May 2008 12:25:06 +0000

First you’d have to unlock the coal that Clinton locked up in the 1990s as a sop to the ChiComs and the Indonesians.

By: bill-tb

bill-tb — Fri, 23 May 2008 12:19:39 +0000

Look the problem with your plan is it uses coal. You said that, I just wanted to repeat it, because that is the problem. Never mind the US has 100s of years of coal supplies. In China they have 3 planned coal to liquids manufacturing test operations planned, one is supposed to be in pilot now and producing next year. The technology was developed in the 1920s and Germany used it during WWII for their oil needs. It’s well understood and it works fine. The US Air Force is trying to establish coal to liquids for some of their air bases right now, they are also testing the synfuel produced in operational aircraft.

As global warming kicks in, and it gets colder, maybe the coal to liquids plan will be pulled off the shelves. It sure makes sense, unless of course if you are a Democrat Socialists and control of people is your goal. Heat is good, cold is bad, you die if you don’t have heat, you only sweat if you get a little warm.