No Runny Eggs

The repository of one hard-boiled egg from the south suburbs of Milwaukee, Wisconsin (and the occassional guest-blogger). The ramblings within may or may not offend, shock and awe you, but they are what I (or my guest-bloggers) think.

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Posts tagged 'bailout'

February 15, 2010

Monday Hot Read – Jon Ward’s “Paul Ryan explains his votes for TARP, bailouts and tax on AIG bonuses”

by @ 9:20. Tags:
Filed under Politics - National.

Last week, Matt Lewis hit Paul Ryan on a trio of “not exactly” fiscally/small-government conservative votes at the end of the previous and the start of the current Congress. Jon Ward asked Ryan directly about each of the three votes (quotes from Ryan, with interjections from me breaking up the blockquotes):

You know I don’t hear it here at home that much. You’ve got to remember Obama won my district. Dukakis and Gore won my district. Clinton won my district. So I don’t come from, you know, a red area. So I think it’s important to keep in mind where I come from. I don’t hear that here.

It may not exactly be “that much”, but I will verify that Ryan has heard it from the district (specifically me). I will point out that before Mark Neumann finally broke through in 1994 (after failing miserably in 1992 and narrowly losing in a special election in 1993) and before Ryan made it a “safe R” district, the district was a very-safe Democratic district represented for years by Les Aspen.

TARP. I’ll take one at a time. I believe we were on the cusp of a deflationary spiral which would have created a Depression. I think that’s probably pretty likely. If we would have allowed that to happen, I think we would have had a big government agenda sweeping through this country so fast that we wouldn’t have recovered from it. So in order to prevent a Depression and a complete evisceration of the free market system we have, I think it was necessary. It wasn’t a fun vote. You don’t get to choose the kind of votes you want. But I just think as far as the long term objectives that I have — which are restoring the principles of this country — I think it was necessary to prevent those principles from being really kind of wiped out for a generation.

I know a lot of people don’t like to hear it (especially those with short memories), but support for/opposition against TARP, at least in its originally-conceived form of being a very-temporary holding of real assets that could not be dumped on the open market without the open market crashing, was a far closer call than the 20/10 vision of history made it.

Auto. Really clear. The president’s chief of staff [Josh Bolten] made it extremely clear to me before the vote, which is either the auto companies get the money that was put in the Energy Department for them already — a bill that I voted against because I didn’t want to give them that money, which was only within the $25 billion, money that was already expended but not obligated — or the president was going to give them TARP, with no limit. That’s what they told me. That’s what the president’s chief of staff explained to me. I said, ‘Well, I don’t want them to get TARP. We want to keep TARP on a [inaudible]. We don’t want to expand it. So give them that Energy Department money that at least puts them out of TARP, and is limited.’ Well, where are we now? What I feared would happen did happen. The bill failed, and now they’ve got $87 billion from TARP, money we’re not going to get back. And now TARP, as a precedent established by the Bush administration, whereby the Obama administration now has turned this thing into its latest slush fund. And so I voted for that to prevent precisely what has happened, which I feared would happen.

It’s a question of semantics here. Does one see that particular vote (which died in the Senate) as a “limit the damage” attempt or an opportunity to stand in complete opposition? Do remember that, at the time, Ryan’s hometown was home to a GM truck assembly plant, and that Chrysler had an engine plant in the district.

Would “limiting” the cash available for that bailout to $25 billion stopped the government takeover of GM and Chrysler? I don’t know. However, it would have prevented the Treasury from providing the debtor-in-possesion financing that greased the nationalization skids.

The whole AIG thing, you know that was — you know I obviously regret that one. I was angry at the time because I was worried that all these companies were jumping into TARP thinking they could use TARP as a way to best their competitors, as a way to get cheaper credit, to get money at cheaper rates, at the expense of their smaller competitors. And so I was seeing TARP as sort of a new tool of crony capitalism, and I thought it’d be a good signal to send to the large banks who were jumping into this thing, who really didn’t need it: ‘Stay away from this, don’t get in bed with the government, even though it might in the short term give you a leg up on your competitors, you’ll be burned. That was what was running through my mind at the time, given the fact that we had about six hours notice on the vote, and our lawyers were telling us that it was not a bill of attainder. Now when a week went by, and our lawyers had a chance to read it more clearly and carefully, they reversed their opinion of the bill and said it was in fact a bill of attainder, which therefore should not have passed…. The other thing that bothered me was the Democrats were in a real political pinch, because Chris Dodd wrote in the exemption for those bonuses in the bill, and they were on the hook for it. And they were trying to get themselves off the hook and Republicans on the hook. And that bothered me too, was just the political cynicism behind it bothered me and I didn’t want to give the Democrats that as well. So those were the thoughts running through my mind when I had to make more or less the snap judgment on that bill.

The “don’t get in bed” portion of that was the off-the-record answer I alluded to last week (which, going back through the archives, was not exactly off-the-record). The fact that Ryan admitted he made a mistake is new, and refreshing.

January 18, 2010

Monday Hot Read – The WSJ’s “The ‘Responsibility’ Tax”

by @ 7:42. Tags:
Filed under Business, Politics - National.

The folks on The Wall Street Journal’s editorial board fired for effect on the “Subsidize Government Companies” proposal from Barack Obama on Saturday (emphasis in the original):

Mr. Obama’s new “Financial Crisis Responsibility Fee”—please don’t call it a tax—is being sold as a way to cover expected losses in the Troubled Asset Relief Program. That sounds reasonable, except that the banks designated to pay the fee aren’t those responsible for the losses. With the exception of Citigroup, those banks have repaid their TARP money with interest.

The real TARP losers—General Motors, Chrysler and delinquent mortgage borrowers—are exempt from the new tax. Why the auto companies? An Administration official told the Journal that the banks caused the crisis that doomed the auto companies, which apparently were innocent bystanders to their own bankruptcy. The fact that the auto companies remain wards of Washington no doubt has nothing to do with their free tax pass.

Also exempt are Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which operate outside of TARP but also surely did more than any other company to cause the housing boom and bust. The key to understanding their free tax pass is that on Christmas Eve Treasury lifted the $400 billion cap on their potential taxpayer losses expressly so they can rewrite more underwater mortgages at a loss.

In other words, the White House wants to tax more capital away from profit-making banks to offset the intentional losses that the politicians have ordered up at Fan and Fred. The bank tax revenue will flow directly into the Treasury to be spent on whatever immediate cause Congress favors. Come the next “systemic risk” bailout, taxpayers will still be on the hook. “Responsibility” is not the word that comes to mind here.

It also notes that the $50 billion in assets floor for this new tax is not exactly a “too big to fail” threshhold.

January 14, 2010

There’s no way out of TARP, part 243,129

by @ 12:51. Tags:
Filed under Business, Politics - National, Taxes.

I’ve done so many of these that I’ve lost count. Fox Business has the dirty details on a brand-new attax…er, attack…er, tax on the cream of the American financial sector:

President Obama will announce today a new “financial crisis responsibility fee” on the top 50 financial firms that is designed to recoup at least $90 billion in projected losses in the government’s bank bailout program, a senior Administration official said….

The official said the fee would be set at 0.15% and, if approved by Congress, would be assessed starting in June for at least a decade on firms with assets of more than $50 billion, including U.S. subsidiaries of foreign banks and large insurance companies with bank or thrift subsidiaries.

If you thought that the biggest vacuums of TARP, specifically the now-government-owned companies which will never repay the money, were going to be part of this, or that those institutions that managed to not get strong-armed into TARP will escape this, think again:

The fee would be paid not just by some firms that received investment capital from the government’s $700 billion Trouble Asset Relief Program (TARP) and by many banks that have already repaid their TARP funds, but also by some firms that did not take TARP money. “All of them have benefitted both from the stabilization (measures), as well as the exceptional, extraordinary Federal Reserve actions,” the official said.

But the two auto companies that the government bailed out last year, General Motors and Chrysler, would not pay the fee, the official said, and neither would mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which the government also took over in 2008. He said the fee “does not and cannot work for a more industrial company like an auto company” and that charging Fannie and Freddie would amount to moving taxpayer money “from one pocket to another.”

That’s right; this is another wealth transfer from responsible companies to the most-irresponsible, government-subsidized companies. But wait, there’s more. Do note the “at least a decade”. If the TARP losses are less than the $90 billion that it’s “likely” going to be, where’s the rest of that money going?

January 8, 2010

How the healthy banks were strongarmed into TARP

by @ 7:58. Tags:
Filed under Business, Politics - National.

(H/T – The Right Scoop via Ed Morrissey)

BB&T CEO John Allison spoke with Fox Business Channel’s John Stossel about how BB&T was forced to take TARP money despite being sufficiently capitalized…

YouTube Preview Image

To wit:

- The Bush-era regulators “kindly informed” BB&T that the capitalization rules would be changed for banks who did not succumb to TARP to levels that even BB&T could not meet.
- Fed chair Ben Bernanke, Time’s “Person of the Year” for being instrumental in the federalization of the economy, didn’t want we the people to realize which banks were in trouble.

Revisions/extensions (8:32 am 1/8/2010) - Had the hat-tip links reversed. OOPS!

December 8, 2009

There’s No Way Out of TARP Part 6 – Porkulus II

by @ 12:35. Tags:
Filed under Miscellaneous.

Editor’s note – this post has some salty language. It’s been too long since I’ve unleashed my inner Rottweiler, so deal with it.

It’s been a while since I delved into the fucked-up world of TARP. The Wall Street Journal yesterday dragged me back into it with news that instead of $341 billion in 10-year losses in TARP, the White House is projecting $141 billion in 10-year losses, and that the $200 billion in “savings” would be spent on a second Porkulus package. Before I continue, let’s review what TARP was supposed to be and what it turned out to be thus far:

  • Originally, TARP was supposed to be the functional equivalent of a $700 billion short-term revolving-credit line, where the federal government would buy “distressed” real assets and hold them only long enough for the private market to recover to absorb them. Overall, it was expected that the majority-to-entirety of the $700 billion out there at any one point would be repaid.
  • TARP turned very quickly into direct-cash injections into the financial system and an actual $700 billion revolving-credit line, with much the same repayment promises, and then morphed again into the bailout and purchase seizure of GM and Chrysler. Ultimately, $204 billion went out the Treasury door.
  • On the repayment end, $10 billion came back to the Treasury in the form of interest and dividend payments, and an additional $70 billion was paid back. In addition, Bank of America will repay its $45 billion TARP loan next week, and the Treasury claims that total repayments may hit $175 billion by the end of next year.

Now, let’s do some math here. $204 billion out less something north of $70 billion back in (the WSJ story did not differentiate between interest payments and dividends; the latter would honestly be applied toward principal) would leave something less than $134 billion outstanding. Assuming (yes, I know, assumption is the mother of all fuckups, so please spare me the ass-you-me horse manure) that the Treasury isn’t blowing smoke up our asses, and assuming no more TARP “investments”, that $175 billion in repayments would leave something less than $30 billion outstanding.

That leaves a “few” questions. First question; what the fuck else is the ObamiNation going to nationalize with TARP to push the 10-year-loss to $141 billion, and what the fuck were they going to nationalize to push it to $341 billion?

Second question; whatever happened to keeping TARP temporary (fuck you very much for the clusterfuck, Bush)? While the entire $700 billion is “spent” according to the budget, in reality, it’s not spent until the money goes out the door, and it was, up until now, supposed to theoretically be repaid in full.

Third question; if Porkulus I was so “successful” at creating/”saving” jobs (BTW, could any O-bots explain how 10.2% is lower than 8%?), why do we need Porkulus II?

Fourth question; what the fuck does continuing to restore the welfare state or weatherstripping homes have to do with Plugs Biden’s favorite three-letter word, J-O-B-S?

September 9, 2009

As the wheels turn, UAW/Government Motors edition

by @ 12:24. Tags:
Filed under Business, Politics - National.

Revisions/extensions (6:45 pm 9/9/2009) - With a tip of the hat to Owen, we have some more-daunting US-specific numbers from the AP, as well as a Idiotic Quote of the Day nominee. Given that, and a review of the actual report, I’ve decided to ReWrite™ the entire post. The original post is archived and struck through below.

The Congressional Oversight Panel, in charge of keeping track of money expended by TARP, issued a report asserting that most of the $14.3 billion spent on UAW Motors and its predecessor, Chrysler LLC, the $49.9 billion spent on Government Motors and its predecessor, General Motors Corporation, and $16.9 billion spent on other elements of the automotive industry will never be repaid. I’m shocked, SHOCKED to find this out.

Let’s review what happened to the money that went out the Treasury door to the two big auto companies:

  • Chrysler LLC (now known as Old Carco LLC)/Chrysler Financial/UAW Motors:
    • Originally-loaned-and-used amounts ($14.31 billion total; does not include credit facilities not used):
      • $4 billion went to Chrysler on 1/2/2009
      • $1.5 billion went to Chrysler Financial on 1/16/2009
      • $280 million went to Chrysler for warranty obligations on 4/29/2009
      • $1.89 billion in used Debtor-In-Possession financing went to Chrysler in May
      • $6.64 billion went to UAW Motors in the form of senior secured debt when it emerged from bankruptcy
    • Repaid amounts ($1.78 billion total):
      • $1.5 billion (the entirety) of the Chrysler Financial loan repaid
      • $280 million (the entirety) of the Chrysler warranty loan repaid
    • Remaining obligations ($12.53 billion):
      • $7.14 billion owed by UAW Motors in the form of senior secured debt (includes $500 million of the original $4 billion loan assumed by the new company)
      • $5.39 billion owed by Old Carco LLC in the form of unsecured debt, not expected to be repaid as the assets of the old company are expected to be exhausted before secured debtors are paid in full
    • Assets owned by the US Treasury:
      • 9.85% of UAW Motors common stock (to be reduced to as low as 8% if Fiat meets up to alll three of its goals to raise its stake from 20% to 35%)
      • A claim of the greater of 40% of Chrysler Financial’s equity value or $1.135 billion, to be applied toward repayment of the original $4 billion loan
  • General Motors Corporation (now known as Motors Liquidation Company)/Government Motors:
    • Originally-loaned-and-used amounts ($49.89 billion total; does not include a $880 million loan to GM made on 12/29/2008 in exchange for GMAC equity):
      • $13.4 billion went to General Motors on 12/31/2008
      • $2 billion went to General Motors on 4/22/2009
      • $4 billion went to General Motors on 5/20/2009
      • $360 million went to General Motors for warranty obligations on 5/27/2009
      • $30.1 billion in Debtor-In-Possession financing went to General Motors in June and July
    • Repaid amounts ($360 million total):
      • $360 million of the DIP financing repaid (the report scores it as a Government Motors debt repaid, though it was repaid before Government Motors assumed its portion of the DIP debt)
    • Obligations that went toward buying 61% of Government Motors common stock ($39.7 billion total) and $2.1 billion of Government Motors prefered stock (all toward the common stock unless otherwise noted):
      • $13.4 billion (the entirety) of the 12/31/2008 loan
      • $2 billion (the entirety) of the 4/22/2009 loan
      • $4 billion (the entirety) of the 5/20/2009 loan
      • $360 million (the entirety) of the 5/27/2009 warranty loan
      • $19.94 billion of the DIP financing for common stock
      • $2.1 billion of the DIP financing for prefered stock
    • Remaining obligations ($7.7 billion):
      • $6.71 billion of former DIP financing owed by Government Motors in senior secured debt
      • $990 million of former DIP financing owed by Motors Liquidation Company in a Wind-Down Facility, which is secured debt
    • Assets owned by the US Treasury:
      • 61% of Government Motors common stock
      • $2.1 billion of Government Motors prefered stock

The CNN story referenced in the original post notes that the $5.4 billion given to UAW Motors is as good as gone. I haven’t seen any plans on how the US and Canadian governments plan to divest themselves of their stakes in the company, but I doubt they’ll get more than $1.1 billion for the remains of Chrysler Financial or $4.3 billion for an 8% stake in UAW Motors.

Meanwhile, The Wall Street Journal reported in July that Government Motors plans on having an IPO sometime in 2010, with full divesture in 2018. Does anybody believe they’ll get $40 billion for 61% of GM or $2.7 billion for the non-voting prefered stock?

That does not address the possibility that UAW Motors and Government Motors will either dip back into the public trough or re-enter bankruptcy. In that case, even the secured debt might not be paid back in full.

That brings me to the Idiotic Quote of the Day. Let’s have the AP deliver it:

“I think they drove a very hard bargain,” said Elizabeth Warren, the panel’s chairwoman and a law professor at Harvard University, referring to the Obama administration’s Treasury Department. “But it may not be enough.”

Hard bargain? For full repayment of the TARP moneys, the Congressional Oversight panel estimates Government Motors would need to reach a total market capitalization of $67.7 billion and UAW Motors would need to reach a total market capitalization of $57.5 billion. That compares very unfavorably to General Motors’ peak market capitalization of $57.2 billion in 2000 (not adjusted for inflation). Further, if memory serves, Chrysler was never worth more than about $25 billion.

Shoebox pointed to a CNN story that says that much of the $60 billion in tax dollars provided to both UAW Motors (nee Chrysler) and Government Motors (nee General Motors) will not be paid back. I’m shocked, SHOCKED to find this out.

Let’s review what happened to the money that went out the door:

- Something north of $13.4 billion from both the US and Canadian governments went to UAW Motors and its predecessor, Chrysler LLC, with $6 billion of that converted to senior secured debt held by the new UAW Motors, and an additional $2 billion spent to buy the assets of Chrysler LLC in exchange for 12.31% of UAW Motors (to be reduced to as low as 10% if Fiat meets certain goals). The remaining $5.4 billion, all unsecured debt, remained with Old Carco LLC, which will almost certainly run out of money and assets before it completes paying the $5 billion it owes its secured debtors.

- Somewhere around $50 billion went to Government Motors and its predecessor, General Motors Corporation, with $7.07 billion in Debtor-In-Possession financing converted to senior secured debt held by the new Government Motors and an additional $1.18 billion in DIP financing converted into a Wind Down Facility loan held by Motors Liquidation Company and given senior secured debt status. The remaining $42 billion was forgiven in exchange for the governments’ nearly-73% share in Government Motors.

The CNN story notes that the $5.4 billion given to UAW Motors is as good as gone. I haven’t seen any plans on how the US and Canadian governments plan to divest themselves of their stakes in the company, but I doubt they’ll get $2 billion for less than 10% of the company.

Meanwhile, The Wall Street Journal reported in July that Government Motors plans on having an IPO sometime in 2010, with full divesture in 2018. Does anybody believe they’ll get almost $42 billion for 73% of GM?

That does not address the possibility that UAW Motors and Government Motors will either dip back into the public trough or re-enter bankruptcy. In that case, even the secured debt might not be paid back in full.

July 24, 2009

Eau de Cadillac

by @ 11:30. Tags:
Filed under Business, Politics - National.

The editorial writers at Investor’s Business Daily slice and dice the first significant post-bankruptcy move by Government Motors – “Cadillac, the new fragrance for men”. That’s right – if you can’t afford a new car, at least you can smell like one (or more likely, just plain smell).

Seriously, there are two GMs – the one that saw a 22% drop in sales for the first 6 months in the US, and the one that saw serious growth nearly everywhere else on the globe. GM sales in China grew by 38%, and sales in several Latin American countries set records. I do discount the market-share growth in Europe, as GM has shed or is about to shed its two major European brands, Opel and Saab.

The money quote from IBD – “We hope GM can survive in the U.S. But we rather doubt it can with a management that thinks that perfume will cover up the stink of political meddling and the lingering bad odor of its ruinous retirement and health care costs.”

June 26, 2009

Humor break – the greatest baseball promotion disaster since Disco Demolition Night

by @ 21:23. Tags:
Filed under Miscellaneous.

Only Iowahawk can come up with Recession Demolition Night. It involves the Chicago White Su…er, Sox, 90 C-17 Globemasters, and the $800 billlion in Porkulus money that has yet to be spent.

No word on whether they’re going to get Steve Dahl and Garry Meier back together for one night only.

June 25, 2009

Yet another loss to Michigan

by @ 23:48. Tags:
Filed under Business, Politics - Wisconsin.

The Janesville Gazette reports that General Government Motors will be retooling its Orion, Michigan plant, which currently builds the Chevrolet Malibu and was slated to close later this year, to build its next-generation Chevrolet subcompact. The Orion plant beat out the already-shuttered Janesville plant, which built the Chevrolet Tahoe/Suburban (and GMC sisters), as well as the soon-to-be-closed Spring Hill, Tennesse plant, which makes the Chevrolet Traverse after being retooled away from the Saturn compact line.

Since there was no way that Government Motors would spare jobs in a Republican-leaning state, the race was really between Wisconsin and Michigan. When the business climate in Wisconsin is so bad that even a government-run operation won’t locate here, one has to wonder why we’re about to make it even worse.

Revisions/extensions (9:22 am 6/26/2009) - The Detroit News reports (H/T – FoxPolitics) that Orion offered GM a 100% tax break on new equipment and machinery for 25 years (up from a 50% tax break on same in an earlier offer) as well as a 50% tax break if it expanded the plant. Somehow, I doubt that it isn’t better than Jim Doyle’s offer (via the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel).

R&E part 2 (9:33 am 6/26/2009) - The folks who run the NewsHub Twitter stream just let me know they’re still working on trying to find out what Wisconsin’s offer was.

A couple things to keep in mind; the Janesville plant is already a shell – GM auctioned off pretty much everything that could be unbolted, including items that would have been useful in building subcompacts. While the cost of stripping out the unnecessary tooling has already been borne, the fact that they will be starting with nothing more than a shell of a building has to also be taken into account.

Speaking of the shell of the building, the Janesville plant is the oldest facility recently used by GM, opening in 1919. The Orion Assembly facility opened at the end of 1983. The ages of the facilities also comes into play, especially since energy costs are about to go through the roof nationwide.

June 10, 2009

UAW Motors is now official

by @ 12:21. Tags:
Filed under Business.

(H/T – The Focusing Brad V)

While I was on a conference call with Sen. Lamar Alexander (recap in the post immediately prior), Chrysler, Fiat, and the United States Treasury took immediate advantage of the denial of relief from several objectors, including three Indiana trust funds, and closed the deal for Fiat to buy an initial 20% stake in the “good” assets of Chrysler for $2 billion and give the UAW a 55% stake in the new company.

UAW Motors escapes bankruptcy with $6 billion in financing from the US Treasury, which according to previous reports will be of official senior secured status.

Conference call with Sen. Lamar Alexander re. govt. car cos.

by @ 12:10. Tags:
Filed under Business, Politics - National.

Thanks to Sean Hackbarth, I was part of a conference call with Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-TN), discussing his plan to distribute the Treasury-held common stock in Chrysler and GM directly to the taxpayers within a year and his new Car Czar award. Since I managed to have my digital voice recorder working, I was actually able to grab a few notes from that. Of course, partly because of my natural quietness, and partially because of a heavy-hitter lineup on the call so experienced that even Fausta didn’t get to ask questions, all I can offer is a writeup.

  • The Auto Stock for Every Taxpayer Act (S. 1198, no text available yet from THOMAS) would require the Treasury to distribute all of the common stock to the 120 million or so Americans who pay individual income taxes within a year of GM leaving bankruptcy (side note; Chrysler has now closed its “sale” to Fiat/UAW/US and Canadian governments and will henceforth be called UAW Motors on this blog).
  • Sen. Alexander describes it as the fastest way to get the stock out of the hands of government, and brought up the example of the Green Bay Packers and its community-owned structure (Sean’s influence at work).
  • The most-important thing is to stop the political meddling that results from government ownership, citing the White House-ordered firing of Rick Wagoner as CEO of GM, “suggestions” on where the HQ of GM ought to be, Rep. Barney Frank (D-MA) pressuring GM to keep a Massachusetts distribution center open, clamors from Congress on what models to make (do I hear Iowahawk’s Pelosi GTxi SS/RT Sport Edition?), the pay czar to “fix” the price of labor.
  • The rationale to the taxpayers is, “You paid for it, you should own it”.
  • As part of that, the Car Czar award, first given to Rep. Frank on Monday, will become a regular feature.

Of course, it wouldn’t be a conference call without questions. As I said, we had some heavy hitters.

  • Noel Sheppard of Newsbusters started up with a two-parter: How will the inevitable calls from the Democrats to include non-taxpayers be addressed, and will the stock distribution will be based on population or percentage of taxes paid? Sen. Alexander hasn’t heard much from the Dems yet, but the principle is that we should give the shares back to those who actually paid for them. As for the distribution percentage, he acknowledges that a percentage-based would be better, but the population-based split would “give the little guy a break” and be “simpler and cleaner”.

    Side note – the Treasury would have roughly 310,000,000 common shares in “new GM”, and an unspecified number of shares equaling 8% of the membership stake (all non-voting) in UAW Motors, so a population-based split would be “simpler and cleaner”.

  • Jennifer Rubin of Commentary Magazine and Pajamas Media wondered if the Chrysler and GM bankruptcies have changed the rule of law regarding private property owners. Sen. Alexander said that we’ve damaged the rule of law and the rights of private property owners. He pointed out that, in the future, private entities will be slower to lend money to enterprises and rely on contracts to pay the money back, and asserted that our system won’t “function very well” in that scenario.
  • Travis Griffith at CarGurus.com asked about stock dumping by those that would get the distribution. Sen. Alexander notes that stock distributions happen all the time. The alternative would be for the Treasury to slowly divest over 5-7 years, and he expects the government to run both right into the ground before they can fully divest themselves.

    Side notes – I’d expect each invidiual 3-share stake in GM to be worth somewhere around $30 at the close (based on the $1 billion in VEBA funding the UAW is giving up for 17.5% of the common shares) and each individual membership stake in UAW Motors to be worth somewhere between $4 and $7 as of a couple hours ago (depending on which valuation method one uses). At the same time, the UAW will be looking to dump significant chunks of its holdings, which will depress the estimated values and limit the dumping.

  • Stephanie Davis from RFC Radio wondered whether the political meddling would be extended to Ford. Sen. Alexander hopes not, and the faster the stock gets out of the Treasury, the less likely it is that Ford will be meddled with. He read off a long list of enterprises government has been meddling in over the last 9 months.
  • Noel Sheppard asked about Sen. Alexander’s thoughts on the European rejection of their leftist leaders. Sen. Alexander pointed out he has been around a while, and he’s seen things change quickly. Europe has been at points in the past a leading political indicator of trends in the US, especially in right turns. Takeaway quote; “(T)he more the Obama administration practices politics of Washington takeover, the more wary Americans are going to be of one-party control in Washington, which is what we have today.”
  • Somebody from RedState (interference on my DVR prevented me from catching his name) asked about the politicization of the Chrysler dealership closings (which took effect at the close of business yesterday). Sen. Alexander noted that the mere odor of politicization is reason enough to end the “incestuous relationship” of the government owning the car companies.
  • Travis Griffith asked how often we can expect a Car Czar award. Sen. Alexander expects a couple a week because we’re in a target-rich environment. As part of previous answer, he mentioned that he might have to give one to himself for urging that the Spring Hill, Tennessee GM plant stay open.
  • Missed who asked this one, but someone asked whether Sen. Alexander had any confidence that the government control of GM will be transparent. He’s hopeful that the demand for transparency will make GM the most-public private company in America, and that the pressure will get the Obama administration to get the government out of GM.

Sean said he would get a recording out to those of us who participated later, so I won’t inflict you with my very-low-quality version.

Revisions/extensions (12:49 pm 6/10/2009) - Ask, and ye shall receive. Sean came through with audio.

I haven’t completed my thoughts on the bill, but it definitely sounds intriguing. One item I haven’t seen addressed yet – the preferred shares that the Treasury will be holding.

May 29, 2009

Pre-vacation auto upates

by @ 23:32. Tags:
Filed under Business, Politics - National.

Yes, there are a couple items, but not the big one that was expected today.

  • The UAW ratified the revised deal that will make it take modest concessions and a $10 billion reduction of a scheduled $20 billion cash payment into the VEBA retiree health-care fund it will run in exchange for 17.5% of the common stock in the new Government Motors, $585 million per year in dividends from prefered stock worth $6.5 billion, and a $2.5 billion promissory note with scheduled payments of $1.38 billion in 2013, 2015 and 2017. What is really telling are some quotes from UAW chief Ron Gettelfinger:

    “I’m regretful that we had to do anything, and I think it’s a disgrace that we had to do anything,” he added.

    Gettelfinger declined to comment on criticism from other GM creditors that the restructuring will favor the union. “This is negotiations. You go in and you do the best job that you can,” he said.

    I would comment, but I don’t want to leave a profanity-laced tirade for my guest-bloggers.

  • Speaking of the UAW, they’re getting a GM plant previously scheduled to close retooled and taken off the axe list so GM can build subcompacts here. Early reports were that they would be the next generation of the Geo Metr…er, overseas-only Chevrolet Matiz (renamed the Spark, with an 84-hp 1.2L engine replacing the 64-hp 1.0L engine), but others suggest the next-generation Chevrolet Aveo would also be part of the mix. If you think that, between the Aveo and the Metr…er, Spark, they’ll hit 160,000 sales per year, you’ve never driven either an Aveo or a Geo Metro. While I missed out on the Aveo, I did drive a Geo Metro once. To Chicago. With my younger sister and her boyfriend-at-the-time (it was his piece of crap). Talk about a frightening experience. I will never, EVER do that again.
  • The bankruptcy judge is taking his sweet-natured time to approve the $2 billion sale of Chrysler to Fiat (with all proceeds going to senior secured creditors, who would get 29 cents on the dollar), with the US and Canadian governments seizing 75% of the new company and awarding a 55% stake to the UAW. That will be delayed until Monday, which will leave 15 days for the expected challenges to be resolved before Fiat walks away from that deal.

I won’t be here to find out whether that mythical percentage of bondholders fall for the bait-and-switch, or the actual terms of the 363 “sale” of GM to the government. I left instructions to the rest of the gang to try to keep up with that.

May 28, 2009

New bondholder plan from Government Motors

by @ 18:06. Tags:
Filed under Business, Politics - National.

Fox Business reports that, in the wake of the failed bonds-for-stock swap attempted by GM, they and their Treasury masters have made a second offer that cannot be refused. If and only if a sufficient number of bondholders agree to not oppose a federal/UAW takeover of GM in bankruptcy court by 5 pm Eastern Saturday, the Treasury will reward them and the current stockholders with an initial 10% stake in Government Motors and an pair of warrants to ultimately increase that stake to 25%. The US Treasury will begin with a 72.5% stake, and the UAW with a 17.5% stake, so those of you still holding GM stock will likely be wiped out entirely.

Fox Business also reports that currently, 20% of the bondholders have swallowed the pill whole. Quoting a group of bondholders that apparently are at least part of that 20%: “Since the initial offer was made on April 27th, circumstances have materially changed that make today’s offer more attractive.” Could that be related to the utter thrashing that Chrysler’s secured creditors have taken?

Summarizing from the SEC filing:

  • The transfer of assets from General Motors (“Old GM”) to Government Motors (“New GM”), which will not include the $27.2 billion in bonds or most of the unsecured claims, will happen under Section 363 of the bankrupcy code.
  • All but $8 billion of whatever funding the US Treasury, and possibly the Ontario and Canadian governments, has or will pour into both Old GM overall (including the $20 billion in TARP bailouts) and New GM in relation to the bankruptcy proceeding will never be paid back.
  • Related to that, it is anticipated that Debtor-In-Possession financing provide by the Treasury will be in excess of $50 billion.
  • In addition to the $8 billion in debt the New GM will owe to the federal government, they will owe the UAW’s VEBA $2.5 billion and “other debtors” (presumably the secured creditors) $6.5 billion.
  • In addition to the 72.5% common-stock stake that the Treasury will have, they will also receive $2.5 billion in perpetual prefered stock with a 9% dividend per annum (or $225 million per year). If the Canadians participate in the DIP financing, they will get a portion of this.
  • In addition to the 17.5% initial common-stock stake that the UAW’s VEBA will have, they will also receive $6.5 billion in perpetual prefered stock with a 9% dividend per annum (or $585 million per year). They will also receive a warrant to purchase an additional 2.5% (as of 12/31/2009) any time before 12/31/2015 at a cost of $1.875 billion.
  • If and only if a sufficient number of bondholders, unspecified in the filing, agree to not oppose this, “Old GM” will get a 10% common-stock stake in “New GM”. If that number is not reached, the Treasury will reduce or eliminate that stake, presumably with the percentages of Treasury and UAW ownership in New GM increasing accordingly to 80.6% Treasury and 19.4% UAW in the event of a outright elimination.
  • Again if and only if an unspecified number of bondholders agree to not oppose this, they will recieve a pair of warrants: one to purchase an additional 7.5% stake of New GM any time in the next 7 years for $1.125 billion and one to purchase an additional 7.5% stake any time in the next 10 years for $2.25 billion. Again, if that number is not reached, the Treasury will reduce or eliminate this program.

Revisions/extensions (6:31 pm 5/28/2009) - I might be missing something here, but there is nothing in the SEC Form 8-K linked to above that says that the bondholders themselves will get anything. The 10% initial stake in “New GM” and the pair of 7.5%-stake warrants in same go to the owners of “Old GM”.

Previously:
- GM shuts down the bondholder buyout plan
- As the wheels turn, automaker edition

May 27, 2009

Union battle over Chrysler – revisited

by @ 18:00. Tags:
Filed under Business, Politics - National.

Earlier, I brought you news of three Indiana government trust funds (two pension funds and a construction fund) holding senior secured Chrysler debt that had sued (unsuccessfully, at least at this point) to stop the “sale” of Chrysler to the UAW, the American and Canadian governments, and Fiat because they would get far less consideration than the junior creditor UAW. While reading through the comments at a Hot Air post on the shutdown of GM’s stock-for-bonds offer), what is happening between the UAW’s retiree health-care fund (VEBA) plan and the various pension funds (mostly for the benefit of unionized government workers) hit me like a freight train.

It’s not exactly a battle between the UAW and the government unions. Since VEBAs are not defined-benefit plans, they are not covered by the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation. Worse, at least from the UAW’s, and thus the Democrats’, point of view, the VEBA obligations are junior in stature.

Since GM and Chrysler are utterly incapable of meeting their full obligations to the VEBAs ($20 billion and $10.6 billion respectively), even in the event of liquidation, a pair of complicated schemes to make the UAW whole came about. In both cases, the UAW was given preferential treatment over other creditors, including creditors senior to it. What is left unreported is that many of those creditors are the aforementioned pension funds, which would be made substantially-whole by the PBGC.

As I termed it in the comments, it’s the Chicago Double-Tap. Step 1 was to screw everybody to make whole the suddenly-politically-powerful UAW. Step 2 is to make the traditionally-politically-powerful government unions that were screwed whole. Other funds, like Indiana’s road construction fund, and the various 401(k)/403(b)/IRA plans, would still be left hung out to dry. Somehow, I doubt that is an unplanned coincidence.

GM shuts down the bondholder buyout plan

by @ 16:56. Tags:
Filed under Business.

(H/T – Ed Morrissey)

USA Today reports that Government Motors shut down the proposed stock-for-bonds buyout plan it had been offering, and will not be honoring any of the exchange offers accepted by the few bondholders that did accept the plan. GM had been offering 225 shares in the “new” GM for each $1,000 in bonds, and had all of the bondholders, which held $27 billion in bonds, accepted, they would have received a total of 10% stake in the “new” GM. One of the conditions the Obama administration set for receiving new taxpayer financing outside of bankruptcy court had been to get those holding at least 90% of the debt to agree.

Given that the current version of the reorganization plan had envisioned 10% of the “new” GM going to those bondholders, with the UAW eventually taking 20% and the government taking 70%, the question is who will get the 10% that was slated to go to the bondholders?

May 26, 2009

As the wheels turn, automaker edition

by @ 21:42. Tags:
Filed under Business, Politics - National.

The first stop is at UAW Motors (formerly known as Chrysler). Reuters reports (H/T – Gabriel Malor) that a District Court case brought by three Indiana trust funds (the teachers’ union retirement fund, the police retirement fund, and a road construction fund) has been rejected, which means the sale of Chrysler to the UAW/Fiat/US government/Canadian government (technically a hearing on that sale in bankruptcy court) will go on as scheduled tomorrow. The trust funds have been arguing that the federal government does not have any authority to give funds to Chrysler to facilitate the sale, which Judge Thomas Griesa sidestepped in his denial of the motion.

The next stop is Govern…er, General Motors, and their agreement with the UAW. Reuters has a comprehensive summary of that. The Cliff’s Notes version (which assumes that GM doesn’t go into bankruptcy; more on that in a bit):

  • In exchange for a $10 billion payment into the VEBA (the retiree health care fund that GM was scheduled to pay $20 billion), the UAW would get a 17.5% common-share stake (with warrants to increase it to 20%), a $6.5 billion, 9% dividend (or $585 million/year) prefered-share stake, and a $2.5 billion note (with an effective APR of 11.1%, and scheduled payments of $1.38 billion in 2013, 2015 and 2017). Previously, GM had offered a 39% common-share stake to the UAW.
  • GM reacquires 5 Delphi plants in Michigan, New York and Indiana.
  • GM will make its small cars at an idled UAW plant, and will reopen 3 additional assembly and 1 stamping plant if sales “beat expectations”.
  • GM will offer buyouts to all its UAW-represented employees.

The $1 billion-17.5% common-share UAW stake would make the common shares worth just over $5.7 billion at issuance of that stake. Reuters notes in that summary that other creditors and the government would get the rest of the common-share stake (more on that in a bit), with no mention of the fate of the current stock. The prior reorganization plan had the government getting 55%, UAW getting 39% in exchange for the $10 billion VEBA liability, unsecured bondholders getting 10%, and the current stockholders getting 1%, with the common shares worth $25.65 billion at issuance assuming the $10 billion-39% common-share UAW stake ratio).

Assuming that the current stockholders would still get 1% of the company, their current $873.1 million net investment (down from $1.25 billion when the previous reorganization plan was announced last month) would dip to $57 million (down from $256 million in the previous reorganization plan, which was rather inflated).

Stop number three is Governme…er, General Motors and the bondholders. Reuters has the interest in the aforementioned $27 billion for 10% stake offer, which expires in a couple hours and requires a 90% acceptance level to stave off bankruptcy, at well under 10%. Meanwhile, Fox Business says that the process could run all the way through the end of the weekend and up to the June 1 GM drop-dead deadline set by the Obama administration.

The final stop is Government (screw it, it’s no longer General) Motors and the government. The New York Times reports that the new deal envisions the federal government taking 70% of the common stock, with another $70 billion-$90 billion in taxpayer money on top of the $20 billion in TARP money already “loaned” anticipated to get GM through the bankruptcy process. Remember that UAW Motors will not be paying back either the $4.3 billion in TARP money that Chrysler received or the $3.2 billion in interim government bankruptcy financing, but will be expected to pay back the $6.2 billion in post-bankruptcy taxpayer money loaned to it. Using that ratio, it looks like there’s $60 billion, give or take $10 billion, down the hole in exchange for $4 billion in Government Motors stock.

Revisions/extensions (10:15 pm 5/26/2009) - DrewM. points us to an interesting quote in The News Organization That Cannot Be Quoted’s™ story from Kip Penniman, analyst for KDP Investment Advisors:

If GM announced they got low single-digit participation, it would be a slap to GM and the absolute response to the Treasury-mandated offer. … A cynical person would say that the offer was set up to ensure GM would go into Chapter 11 and provide the government a scapegoat.

That story also notes that those bondholders with credit default swaps could make up to $2.33 billion in the event of a GM bankruptcy filing. It does not specify what percentage of bondholders has credit default swaps, but under the prior, highly-inflated plan, the at-issuance worth of the bondholders’ equity stake would have been $2.56 billion, and under the current plan (assuming they still get 10% of the equity), the at-issuance worth of that stake would be $570 million. Do remember that the paper value of those bonds is $27 billion.

Further, The Wall Street Journal reports that, unlike the Chrysler offering, the government is going to pay off the secured creditors in full, to the tune of $6 billion.

May 22, 2009

Union battle over Chrysler

by @ 8:53. Tags:
Filed under Business, Politics - National.

(H/T – Alamo City Pundit)

The AP reports that, fresh from a denial by bankruptcy judge Arthur Gonzalez to delay the expedited sale of portions of Chrysler to Fiat, the US and Canadian governments, and the UAW, three Indiana trust funds that held senior secured debt in Chrysler, the Indiana Major Moves Construction Fund, Indiana State Police Pension Trust (both managed by Indiana’s Treasurer, Richard Mourdock), and the Indiana State Teachers Retirement Fund will be appealing to district court to try to stop the sale and the 29-cents-on-the-dollar return for the senior secured creditors.

The Louisville Courier-Journal puts the losses suffered by the teachers’ fund at $4,600,000, the police fund at $147,000, and the road-construction fund at $896,000. The NEA, which just took over operation of the largest teachers’ union in Indiana after possible fraud committed by the union’s insurance arm, can’t be happy about that.

As a result, Treasurer Mourdock has instructed the funds run by his office to not buy any more secured debt from companies receiving federal bailout money. I guess we can now add state/local public capital to the list of capital no longer flowing to bailed-out companies.

May 21, 2009

War on corporations holding back economic recovery – part 2

by @ 19:44. Tags:
Filed under Business, Politics - National.

(H/T – Hot Air Headlines via Flip)

Remember what I relayed from Dad29 in what turned out to be Part 1 of what seems to be an ongoing series? Bloomberg reports that fund managers are now wary of lending money to unionized companies with unfunded pension liabilities because of what happened at Chrysler. Quoting George Schultze, head of Schultze Asset Management, one of the last Chrysler holdouts:

Lenders will have to figure out how to price this risk. The obvious one is: Don’t lend to a company with big legacy liabilities or demand a much higher rate of interest because you may be leapfrogged in a bankruptcy….

It’s terrible precedent. The sad thing is it impacts the manufacturing sector and the companies that have legacy liabilities directly. It will be nearly impossible, or much more expensive, to get secured financing for these type of companies.

I do want you to read the entire article. However, I can’t let the closing paragraph escape notice:

“People are starting to think ‘This is a very activist administration, even more than we counted on,’” said Martin Fridson, CEO of money manager Fridson Investment Advisors in New York. “If it comes down to the interest of creditors or labor unions, the administration is going to override what you thought you could do.”

What’s left of private capital for at-risk companies is about to exit stage left.

May 8, 2009

Welcome to UAW Motors

by @ 14:27. Tags:
Filed under Business, Politics - National.

Bloomberg is reporting that the dissident senior creditors of Chrysler have caved and will not be fighting for anything more than the 29% that the Obama administration initially offered them. The quote of the day is from Tom Lauria, which was representing the group, “After a great deal of soul-searching and, quite frankly, agony, they concluded they just don’t have critical mass to withstand the enormous pressure and machinery of the U.S. government.”

In fact, since the purchase price from Fiat is $2 billion, and the various bankruptcy fees will come out of that, they’re taking an even bigger haircut.

The Chicago Way has come to Wall Street.

May 7, 2009

How much down the UAW Motors black hole?

by @ 18:51. Tags:
Filed under Business, Politics - National.

(H/T – Brian)

I know I’m playing catch-up because I still have essentially no energy (no, it’s not the swine flu, or any other flu; it’s the start of Allergy Season), but CNN reported yesterday that the $4 billion bridge loan from TARP, the $300 million fee on that loan, and the $3.2 billion in bankruptcy financing provided to Chrysler UAW Motors will not be paid back, though the Treasury might be getting a portion of the liquidation of Chrysler Financial. Let’s see – that’s $7.5 billion for 8% of UAW Motors/”New Chrysler”. Brilliant!

The CNN story does note that the $4.7 billion in taxpayer funds that will go to “New Chrysler” upon it emerging from bankruptcy, as well as an additional $1.5 billion likely to be loaned to it in mid-2010, will be of the secured credit variety, and will be expected to be paid back.

One more item to consider – the 55% stake the UAW would hold in “New Chrysler” is expected to be turned into cash sooner rather than later. That is supposedly valued at $4.2 billion, with apparently no shareholder voting rights beyond a single seat on the board of directors. One of the many bankruptcy documents states that Fiat will be able to get 40% of that. Somehow, I doubt they’ll pay $1.68 billion (40% of $4.2 billion) for that non-voting share, or any entity other than your federal government will come up with the $2.52 billion for the other 60% (or that plus the shortfall between Fiat’s offer and the $1.68 billion) to make the UAW whole.

As a side note; none of the bankruptcy filings appear to address who initially holds the 15% interest in “New Chrysler” that Fiat can “earn” by meeting three metrics (in 5-percent chunks): introducing a 40-mpg Chrysler made in the US, creating a “fuel-efficient” engine family made in the US, and opening up Fiat’s worldwide distribution network to the Chrysler brand. They do note, however, that separate of the Fiat-UAW VEBA buyout agreement mentioned above, Fiat can increase its total stake in “New Chrysler” to 51%, apparently by an issuance of addtional shares.

Revisons/extensions (8:04 pm 5/7/2009) - (H/T – Jim Geraghty) ProPublica reminds us that $1.5 billion went down the black hole known as Chrysler Finance, which will not be part of “New Chrysler”. That puts the grand total between $9 billion and $9.2 billion (depending on whose numbers for what got sent down the black hole so far one believes).

One bit of a positive – I do expect a rather high dividend to be paid on the government/UAW shares, even higher than what is normally paid on non-voting shares. Still, I expect a very poor rate of return on that $9 billion wasted on Chrysler, even if they don’t ultimately go Tango Uniform.

April 30, 2009

Chrysler headed into Chapter 11

by @ 8:26. Tags:
Filed under Business.

Reuters is reporting that Chrysler, LLC. is headed to bankruptcy after several holders of secured debt refused the Treasury/TARP banks/Chrysler last offer of $2.25 billion in cash in exchange for retiring the $6.9 billion in secured debt. As I noted last night, it’s a risky proposition for both the hedge funds thinking they’ll do better than the 32.6 cents on the dollar they would have received in the cramdown (sources say that in a liquidation they’d get closer to 50 cents on the dollar) and the Obama administration/UAW/Fiat plan to turn Chrysler into UAW Motors presented by the United States Government as it goes to the whims of a judge.

April 29, 2009

Chrysler to become UAW Motors

by @ 7:55. Tags:
Filed under Business, Politics - National.

(H/T – DrewM., and I highly recommend reading the comments, at least if you are able to handle AoSHQ-standard NSFW language)

Bloomberg reports that the United Auto Workers are poised to accept a new contract that gives them a 55% stake in Chrysler, LLC. It also reports that Italy’s Fiat will initially get a 20% stake, which may increase to 35% if certain performance goals are hit, and that the Treasury Department will retain the other 10%.

The story, and others on the web, don’t mention where the 15% that may go to Fiat will be held initially, but I presume it will be the Treasury. Somehow, I doubt the Ram and Dakota pickups or most of the Jeep lineup surviving will be part of the conditions set by the Obama administration.

The UAW portion is a bit complicated. Chrysler is obligated to put $10.6 billion into VEBA, the union-run retiree health care plan. In exchange for $8.8 billion, Chrysler will give UAW said 55% stake, valued at $4.2 billion, and put in a $4.59 billion promissory note, to be paid off in installments until 2023 at a 9% annual interest rate.

That brings up the same question that I had yesterday with General Government Motors – what happens when it’s time to convert that 55% stake into cash? With most of the VEBA funding to be paid later, I expect that to happen sooner rather than later, sooner even than at GM. The Bloomberg story notes that, if the UAW manages to get more than $4.2 billion for its full 55% stake, the Treasury will get the difference. That begs the question of what happens in the likelier eventuality that the UAW doesn’t get $4.2 billion. Will the Treasury we the taxpayers pony up that difference?

Related to that, the Washington Post notes at the end of its story that one of the key players in the Obama auto task force that has come up with both the union-owned Chrysler and government-owned GM is Ron Bloom. Bloom was instrumental in creating the employee-owned United Airlines. The Post notes that didn’t exactly work.

One more item – The News Organization That Cannot Be Quoted™ (that would be the Associated Press for those just tuning in) reports that the biggest of Chrysler’s secured creditors, representing 70% of the secured debt, including JPMorgan, Citibank Chase, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, have reached a deal with the Treasury to, if all 46 secured creditors sign on, take $2 billion in cash to retire the $6.9 billion in secured debt they hold. I note that those 4 banks are among the 19 undergoing the TARP “stress tests”, and I wonder if the hold the Obama administration has on them had anything to do with them swallowing the 71% haircut the Treasury is demanding. After all, as secured creditors, they get paid first in the event of Chrysler’s liquidation, and it is likely that they would do far better than $2 billion.

Revisions/extensions (8:13 pm 4/29/2009, involves a major ReWrite™ of the first R&E after reviewing the WaPo item) - The Washington Post reports (H/T – Dad29) that, in the now-likely event of a bankruptcy, the final US Treasury stake would be only 8%, with the Canadian government owning 2%. The hedge funds which own Chrysler secured debt are resisting the cramdown because a recent Standard&Poor’s analysis of it reveals that what the Treasury is offering is at the bottom end of what they could recover in a bankruptcy.

That is a risky proposition because a bankruptcy judge could force the cramdown down the funds’ throats. I’m sure that the Treasury knows precisely which judge will get the case, and how that judge will act.

April 28, 2009

Government Motors to axe Pontiac, save the unions

by @ 7:32. Tags:
Filed under Business, Politics - National.

In case you missed all the news about General Government Motors yesterday, let’s recap (courtesy Investor’s Business Daily):

  • GM will drop Pontiac as a brand, 8,000 jobs, and 2,600 dealerships by next year. I suppose the good news is the performance division won’t be stuck trying to sell the Pelosi GTxi SS/Rt Sport Edition (© Iowahawk)
  • GM is asking bondholders who hold $27 billion in GM debt to swap their notes for stock to the tune of 225 shares per $1,000 owed, or $4.44 per share. That is just over twice what the stock is trading at now, which represents something less than 50 cents on the dollar for the bondholders, and if math I’ve seen elsewhere is right, would represent roughly 10% of the stock.
  • GM wants the United States Treasury to take a majority of common stock in exchange for forgiving $10 billion in debt. Also, they want the UAW to take 39% of the common stock in lieu of cash for $10 billion in retiree health care payments.

That leaves the current stockholders with 1% of the company. If you’re confused, join the club headed by Larry Kudlow.

Jimmie over at The Sundries Shack explains that it is all payback. He pulled a post from QandO from the memory vault that unspun a Los Angeles Times article attempting to pin the Congressional failure of the Big 3 UAW bailout on those eeeeeeeeeeevil Republicans. Not only have contributions from the UAW dwarfed those from the Big Three over the last 4 election cycles, and not only have those UAW contributions gone to the Democrats by a 99-1 ratio over each of those 4 cycles, but the Big Three donated mostly to Democrats last time around.

One more thing; the editorial gang at IBD noted that the UAW Jobs Bank, unlike the power of current GM stockholders and the value of the debt held by GM’s creditors, is going nowhere.

Revisions/extensions (7:51 am 4/28/2009) - Let’s do some math, using the assumption that the $10 billion-for-39%-of-the-common-stock the UAW is getting is a pure 1-1 deal. Of course, it is a very dangerous assumption because the market capitalization of GM is only $1.25 billion. That would put the new “market capitalization” at a tick below $25.65 billion. Assuming things don’t crater at the “new” GM (do remember, however, that assumption is the mother of all fuck-ups), we can use that to determine how badly the bondholders and stockholders get the shaft here:

- Ignoring the effect of the remainder of the loans, the $10 billion the government will spend to run General Government Motors would be worth $12.82 billion. Of course, there’s the “slight” matter of paying back the other $17 billion that GM is borowing/wants to borrow.
- The $27 billion the bondholders would pay to get 10% of GM would turn into a $2.56 billion “investment”. That’s a haircut of over 90%.
- The $1.25 billion the market has invested in GM suddenly turns into $256 million, or a haircut of just under 80%.

If I were one of the bondholders, I’d hold out for bankruptcy. That notes-for-stock plan won’t happen unless almost all of the bondholders agree.

R&E part 2 (10:12 am 4/28/2009) - Ed Morrissey has more on this effect.

There’s also a couple questions I don’t really want to consider because they are just too ugly:

- Who is going to buy the UAW 39% to convert those shares into cash? Do remember that the 39% is taking the place of $10 billion that was supposed to go into the retiree health fund, and I doubt that the dividends will make up for that lost cash.
- What happens when (not if) the market decides that Government Motors isn’t worth $25.65 billion?

R&E part 3 (10:38 am 4/28/2009) - The Washington Post has a few more details:

- The Obama administration is claiming they won’t use their majority position to run the company. Of course, when they had but 35% of the debt, they demanded the firing of former CEO Rick Wagoner and a reconstituting of the board of directors. As Jim Geraghty says, “All of Barack Obama’s statements come with an expiration date. All of them.”

- Related to that control, it was the Treasury that formally limited the bondholders to 10% in the new company.

- While GM bonds are currently trading in the $0.08-$0.13 on the dollar range, financial experts are expecting a return of 0%-5% for bondholders who take shares of common stock. That goes to the questions I had earlier, because that would represent a halving of the nominal “market cap” based on the UAW obligation-for-stock deal.

April 20, 2009

There’s no way out of TARP, parts 3-5

by @ 11:33. Tags:
Filed under Business, Politics - National.

Those of us who at a minimum had severe reservations about TARP and at a maximum opposed it are being proven right about our concerns. Where, oh where to begin.

I’ll start with the news that I first heard Saturday and posted through the Emergency Blogging System now that I found a link – Bloomberg reports that the Treasury will be hanging onto their stock warrants after the TARP loans are repaid and the prefered stock the Treasury received as part of the package is bought back, only releasing the warrants after a further negotiated settlement.

Item #2 – Fox Business reports that Treasury officials are considering converting the the aforementioned prefered stock into common stock, complete with voting rights. In several instances, that would make the government the largest voting shareholder.

Item #3 (H/T – Legal Insurrection) – The Financial Times reports that repayment would be accepted only if it were in the “national economic interest”. That’s right; banks that have the money to pay back the loans and pass the “stress test” may not be allowed to pay back the government.

I’m just waiting for the booming voice that is in the Grand Finale of Rush’s “2112″ to announce, “Attention all banks of the United States of America. We have assumed control. We have assumed control. We have assumed control.”

April 15, 2009

There’s no way out of TARP, part II

by @ 8:15. Tags:
Filed under Business, Politics - National.

Goldman Sachs said on Monday, in the wake of its $1.8 billion first-quarter profit, that it was looking to have a stock offering of $5 billion in order to repay its $10 billion loan. Tuesday, a rift developed between Rep. Barney Frank (D-MA) and the Obama administration, as the former welcomed the repayment development. The administration, on the other hand, claims to want to not “stigmatize” those still on the TARP.

As a guest on “Your World with Neil Cavuto” pointed out yesterday, the more-likely reason is the Obama adminstration would rather keep control. After all, he who doles out the gold makes the rules.

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