No Runny Eggs

Today was Cinderella Sunday, as not one, not two, but three Cinderellas won. Of course, the fact that two Cindys would win was guaranteed because there were two 12-v-13 matchups. Still, Davidson had its biggest game of its history in knocking off Georgetown. The bad news for them is they get Bucky on Friday, known around The Bar as the Terminators.

Despite there being three lower-bracket teams in the Sweet 16, we only had three “upsets” in the second round, and one of those can’t really be called an upset because it was a #5 knocking off a #4. It was a rough weekend for the #2s, as a pair of them got rejected and the other two got the stuffing scared out of them.

For those keeping track of conferences at home, the Big East and the Pac-10 each have 3 teams, the “down-year” Big Ten and the Big 12 each have 2 teams, and the “all-mighty” ACC, the “almost-all-mighty” SEC, the “used-to-be-mighty” Atlantic 10, the “stripped-bare” Conference USA, and the mid-major twins (Southern, Sun Belt) each have 1 team.

Incredibly, despite going only 21-11 in the first round and 10-6 in the second (including three games that were dead to the bracket), I’m set to do some serious damage in the later rounds as I’ve only lost two of my Elite Eight and my Final Four is still intact. I don’t remember a year when I could say that after the second round.

I need to stay positive after a Day 3 that saw another Elite Eight drop and me go 5-3 (including the dead game that didn’t see Kansas choke). Let’s see…

- Wisconsin won.
- My Final Four is intact.
- I’m above .500.
- In both pools (the WSB and AoSHQ), if Wisconsin takes it all, I should win.

Of course, there are the negatives…

- I’ve lost 5 of my Sweet Sixteen teams (with a pair of dead games today) and 2 of my Elite Eight.
- The first round was an unmitigated disaster, which put me well behind the curve.

Somebody, remind me to put up the “Which #1 drops first?” poll if North Carolina and Memphis both make it into the Sweetness.

Day 2 was pretty much the same as Day 1. One less loss, but I’m down to 13 of my Sweet 16 and 7 of my Elite 8.

I guess I know what song will be on Monday’s Morning Scramble.

The regularily-scheduled bracket coverage will be found at TheWisconsinSportsBar today. That is all on the Moldy Mozzarella front.

This will be bumped as necessary, so there may or may not be newer posts below. I’m getting this started at 1:50 pm 3/20/2008.

1:50 pm – So far, not too much damage. Kansas simply crushed Portland State; not unexpected so no real commentary there.

Xavier came back to beat a very game Georgia; that final doesn’t reflect just how in control the Bulldogs were most of the game.

Unfortunately, there was some damage. Michigan State survived an ice-cold Neitzel to knock off Temple to take out one of my 12-5 upset specials. At least I wasn’t stupid enough to have Temple surviving the weekend.

6:12 pm – Unlike previous years, I didn’t wait until Day 2 to have my bracket become number 2. I lost my Cinderella (badly), and none of my other upset specials (Kentucky, Baylor) survived. At least Pittsburgh didn’t disappoint.

8:38 pm – About the only good thing is I don’t have to extend the Suicide Watch to North Carolina and the patriarch Ham (it’s already been issued for MK). There’s also the fact I’ve yet to lose an Elite Eight team, though I’m already missing a Sweet 16. That was very close to an 0-3 early-evening performance, as Belmont gave Duke all they could handle, the Aggies gig BYU, and K-State gives us the first actual upset of the tourney.

11:13 pm – Who said it was a down year for the Big Ten, and why did I listen to them? The Badgers and Purdue make the Big Ten 3-0 in the tourney so far, and I missed two of those. The Boilermakers were the last game I missed tonight, as UCLA almost tripled up on poor Mississippi Valley State, my first 7-10 split came in with West Virginia, and the Golden Domers take out last year’s Cindy.

10-6 on Day 1, one of my Sweet 16 teams toastified. Not my usual Day One performance, but considering my 2008 performance to date, not too bad.

Selected highlights (soon to be lowlights) of the Bouncing Mozzarella bracket:

- You heard it here first; Wisconsin 63, Memphis 62 in the championship.
- Sorry, Hams (Georgia) and Care Bears (Marquette), for the first-round exits.
- The yearly 7-10 splits: Butler (#7), Davidson (#10), St. Mary’s (#10), West Virginia (#10)
- The first #1 gone; Kansas missing the Sweet 16 to the benefit of this year’s weak Cinderella, Kent State.
- Sorry, Bruce Pearl. We still love ya in the land of cheese and beer, but the road to a Bucky championship goes right through you in the national semi-final.
- There will be 5 opportunities to chant, “Beat (UC)LA!”
- The highest seed to drop in the first round: Vanderbilt.

There’s still time to try to beat me. The Bar and The Morons still have room in their brackets, and they close at tipoff at 11:20 (probably a few minutes early).

“If I have to be remembered because of statistics then I did something wrong along the way.”

  Brett Farve at the press conference announcing his retirement

“Come on guys; I answered like eight questions. We’re running late."  

Barack Obama at his first unfriendly press conference.

I suppose the good news is neither Hendrick nor Toyota took the race. Random thoughts:

- Why would Robbie Gordon go from Ford to Dodge? I mean, Dodge is the ugly red-headed stepchild of NASCAR now that Toyota’s in with Gibbs. Wait, I just answered the question.
- Maybe Hendrick Motorsports isn’t so invulnerable after all. Their engines broke before the Duels, Dale Earnhardt Jr’s shift knob broke, then Jeff Gordon’s suspension broke. By the end, the Official Driver of the 2008 Hen¢AR Sprint Cup season had nobody left to help him.
- The Toyotas are pretty damn strong. They’re the only cars that could routinely pull off single-car moves up through the field. Guess having 15 horses at the rear wheels on the Official Team of Hen¢AR and 30 on the field does wonders.
- The leading candidate to be out at Roush Fenway when they drop to 4 teams is now David Ragan. He’s Kyle Busch without the talent, as he ruined Matt Kenseth’s and my day by mistaking the DeWalt Ford for a vacant piece of Daytona real estate long before the last lap.
- While 465 beats 435, 870 beats 465. Busch the older is a team player, while Busch the younger isn’t. Nice job upsetting the applecart, Penske boys; enjoy the Room of Doom next week at California as Brian and company begins Operation: Vengeance.
- When Tony Stewart finally wins a Daytona 500, will he get a receiving line like Dale Earnhardt did?

Revisions/extensions (8:43 am 2/15/2008) – The US Attorney’s office screwed up in its initial filing; it was in November 2000, not November 2001. Reuters notes that they will be making an amended filing today in the linked story.

According to Reuters:

The allegation came in a legal filing in his steroid perjury case that referred to Bonds’ long-time trainer, Greg Anderson.

“At trial, the government’s evidence will show that Bonds received steroids from Anderson in the period before the November 2001 positive drug test, and that evidence raises the inference that Anderson gave Bonds the steroids that caused him to test positive in November 2001,” U.S. Attorney Joseph Russoniello wrote.

As I said at TheWisconsinSportsBar, I’m shocked, VERY FUCKING SHOCKED he took steroids the year he broke the (single-season home run) record. Pope Bud I should swing for this.

Recapping the piss-poor parlay card after the Giants’ 17-14 win in 42nd edition of The Game That Cannot Be Named (which puts me at 3-8 ATS, 4-7 O/U, 5-6 SU in the post-season):

Patriots -12
Patriots (straight-up) -440
Over 54.5
Team to score first – Giants +130
Will the team that scores first win? – No +190
Team to score last – Patriots -150
Team to punt first – Giants -160
Total touchdowns in the game – over 6.5 -160
Total punts – under 7.5 even
Eli Manning pass attempts – over 34.5 -125
Will Eli throw a pick? – Yes -400 (yep)
Tom Brady pass attempts – over 37.5 -105
Will Brady throw a pick? – No -125
Tom Brady TDs – 6 or more 8/1 (only 1)

I’m calling Obama wiping out McCain in the general right now and fervently hoping that my inability to call jack shit in either the NFL or politics this year continues.

First off, I have to take my hat off to JammieWearingFool, who not only has his team (the Giants) in the aforementioned game, but went 9-1 in the playoffs (bastard!) Well, we’re out of January, so we’re out of my month of discontent (3-7 ATS, 4-6 O/U and 5-5 straight-up) is over. Since the final score will be Pats 62, Giants 13, the obvious bets (courtesy Bodog) of Patriots -12, Patriots -440 straight-up, and over-54.5 are the the ones to take.

However, since this is the Game That Cannot Be Made, and I have to do something to come out of the post-season not dead (or is that buried at the 50 yard line in Jerry Jones’ new stadium?), we’re going into the land of the prop bets, where the profitability can really change.

Team to score first – Giants +130
Will the team that scores first win? – No +190
Team to score last – Patriots -150
Team to punt first – Giants -160
Total touchdowns in the game – over 6.5 -160
Total punts – under 7.5 even
Eli Manning pass attempts – over 34.5 -125
Will Eli throw a pick? – Yes -400
Tom Brady pass attempts – over 37.5 -105
Will Brady throw a pick? – No -125
Tom Brady TDs – 6 or more 8/1

I was going to post a expletive-filled tirade, but the title says absolutely, positively every fucking thing I have to say. 0-2 ATS, 1-1 O/U, 1-1 straight-up (with the -1 part in the game I cared about). The Inveterate Gambler will be back in September, minus a couple knees.

Bring on Spring Training!

We’re at the penultimate Sunday in the NFL season, and we need a sweep to end either half of the formula above .500 after a 2-2 week ATS (and straight-up) and an extra-chunky 1-3 on the over/unders. Oh well; let’s hit Bodog one more time…

NY Giants @ Green Bay (-8/over-41.5) – The forecast is in; cold and not windy. The Game That Cannot Be Named, here we come! Bonus prediction; your final will be Green Bay 31, New York 13.

San Diego @ New England (-14/over-47.5) – Injuries are going to catch up to the Bolts this weekend as the Cheating Pats set a record for most consecutive wins in a season.

Even though nothing is above .500, and the “money” 2/3rds of my playoff predictions slid under the .500 mark, it’s still half-full. Let’s review what went right and wrong:

Seattle 20 @ Green Bay 42 (-7.5/under-43.5-LOSS) – No pick-sixes, but when the Packers either score touchdowns or turn the ball over, and they score six times, it’s almost all-good. Mental note – snow does not stop the Packer offense.

Jacksonville 20 (+13-WIN/over-50-WIN) @ New England 31 – Number of punts – 2. I do believe I told you to take the under-4.5 on that.

San Diego 28 @ Indianapolis 24 (-9.5/under 46.5) – I guess the Bolts just have the Dolts’ number.

New York Giants 21 @ Dallas 17 (-7.5/over 46.5) – I wonder if TO has castrated Romo yet. Stat of the weak – 1-3 against the over/unders. I don’t know the last time I chunked that up that bad.

2-2 against the spread, 1-3 against the over/unders and 2-2 straight-up leaves the playoff record at 3-5 ATS, 3-5 O/U and 4-4 SU. Dammit; I have to sweep the rest of the playoffs to make any money.

…and were looking for me the past hour, I’m at the open thread at The Bar (expect typical bar language).

Fortunately, I’m not like the other losers from this past weekend; I get to play again after a chunky 1-3 weekend against the spread (2-2 on the over/unders, 2-2 straight-up). Once again, we have 4 games on the board, and this time we have the Pack going. For you wimps that just want the winners, remember the home team has a ridiculous record in this round, so take all four home teams to win outright. The rest of you, let’s make you some money.

Seattle @ Green Bay (-7.5/under-43.5) – The Seahags have no running game, so Matt Hasselbeck ought to be playing the lottery with a couple of pick-sixes.

Jacksonville (+13/over-50) @ New England – Over/under on the number of punts in this game – 4.5 (take the under).

San Diego @ Indianapolis (-9.5/under 46.5) – Marvin Harrison is back, and that along with Home Sweet Dome will be the difference between this meet and the one the Colts lost in November.

New York Giants @ Dallas (-7.5/over 46.5) – Stat of the week; teams going for a “three”-sweep are 11-6 in the third-game attempt.

2-2 straight-up, 1-3 against the spread, and 2-2 on the over/unders does not make me healthy…

Washington 14 (+3.5/over-39-WIN) @ Seattle 35 – Like the Night Rider, Joe Gibbs crashed and burned.

Jacksonville 31 (-3-LOSS/under-41-LOSS) @ Pittsburgh 29 – Why, oh why did the Jags let the Steelers back in to twist the knife in my gut?

NY Giants 24 @ Tampa Bay 14 (-3/under-39.5-WIN) – My nightmare – Chuckie coaching in a playoff game.

Tennessee 6 @ San Diego 17 (-10/over-39-LOSS) – This was a slobber-knocker.

Somewhere below, I gave you a picture of the DeWalt Nano car that won the last “Car of Yesterday” race in NASCAR Cup history. I guess I should point you to the whole Flickr photostream of two different trips I took to the Matt Kenseth Fan Club Store/Museum up in Cambridge, especially since they were remodeling to give that car a proper display (it was in the “first Cup win” display when I was there in December):

- Strolling through the museum in October
- The DeWalt Nano car (in a temporary display)

Sorry I couldn’t make you guys money this year, but at least I got you through the .500 glass ceiling with a 123-120-13 record. Now, it’s the most wonderful time of the year, the NFL playoffs.

For those of you new to this site, I pull the lines off of Bodog (unless the site or a particular line is unavailable) a bit before the first kickoff (sometimes, barely before), tell you which team will win against the spread, and (usually) give a nugget or two (could be real, could be real BS, could be both). During the regular season, I also choose 2 games a week to give an opinion on the over/under; for the playoffs, it’s going to be every game. It’s been a while since I issued the standard disclaimer, so allow me to do so again – These picks are not intended to be used for any wager. If you decide to ignore this advice, please wager legally and responsibly; I can’t be held responsible if Uncle Sam or Knock-Knees Tony pays you a visit.

Washington (+3.5/over-39) @ Seattle – The Redskins are hotter than a roll of dice, and the Walrus is no Max Rockatansky. Step right up, chum, and watch Portis burn a rubber road right to freedom.

Jacksonville (-3/under-41) @ Pittsburgh – Hmmmm, 2 running backs or none? Take the deuce, especially since Jax already won once.

NY Giants @ Tampa Bay (-3/under-39.5) – The Giants played their Super Bowl last week, and they’re facing their personal nightmare in Jeff Garcia.

Tennessee @ San Diego (-10/over-39) – Over/under on fines to be handed out after this game – $35,000 (take the over).

There is a reason why I called the last week of the regular season in the NFL the second-hardest to pick; so many teams treat this as a 5th exhibition game. Let’s review the random carnage:

Detroit 13 @ Green Bay 34 (-5) – No word yet whether Craig Nall is done for his career.
New Orleans 25 (-1.5) @ Chicago 33 – And the ‘Aints go marching out.
Minnesota 19 @ Denver 22 (+3) – Wall 1, Rookie 0
New England 38 (-14-LOSS) @ NY Giants 35 – Once again, the Pats were fit to be had. Don Shula last spotted with a 5-quart pail of ice cream hoping somebody, anybody plays 60 minutes of ball against them.
Buffalo 9 (+8-TIE) @ Philadelphia 17 – McNabb played like his contract was up.
Carolina 31 (-3) @ Tampa Bay 23 – Real smooth, Chuckie. At least you made the Carolina contingent on my roll happy.
Cincinnati 38 (-3) @ Miami 25 – The Deadfins were as lifeless as their fans after the G-men let the Pats off the hook.
Jacksonville 28 (+6.5 – game currently crossed out at Bodog) @ Houston 42 – And the award for the toughest division in the NFL goes to – the AFC South, which edged out the NFC East in wins 42-40 (both boast no losers and both wild-cards from their respective conferences).
Seattle 41 (pick’em) @ Atlanta 44 – Turnover, turnover, turnover.
San Francisco 7 @ Cleveland 20 (-10 – game currently crossed out at Bodog) – The Dawg Pound is really wondering why they wasted money on AJ Hawk’s brother-in-law.
Dallas 6 (+9) @ Washington 27 – Either Wade Phillips is a genius for realizing that it’s nigh impossible to beat the same team 3 times in the playoffs, or he won’t survive to play in Jerry Jones’ doll house.
Pittsburgh 21 (-3.5) @ Baltimore 27 – The Steelers treated this as an off-week, with predictable results.
San Diego 30 (-9) @ Oakland 17 – How appropriate that Plastic Pelosi is from San Fran. The top 2 net punting averages in NFL history were set in the Bay this year; Oakland’s Shane Lechler had a 41.1 net and San Fran’s Andy Lee had a 41.0 net to shatter the old record of 39.9 net.
St. Louis 19 @ Arizona 48 (-6) – Like Lambs to the slaughter.
Kansas City 10 (+6-WIN) @ NY Jets 13 – Jimmy Hoffa was deeply saddened.
Tennessee 16 (-4.5) @ Indianapolis 10 – Can anybody answer the question, why there are any ex-Badger quarterbacks in the NFL?

9-6-1 against the spread and 1-1 on the over/unders closes out the regular season at 123-120-13 ATS and 20-13-1 O/U. Wild card picks will be up momentarily.

We’re at the end of the regular season, the 2nd-hardest week to pick as so many teams have nothing of significance to play for. Not good, considering I went an extra-chunky 4-11-1 last week to bring me right back where I started. As always, the lines are from Bodog, so they may or may not bear any semblance to what your stateside Man is offering you.

Detroit @ Green Bay (-5) – Yeah, the Packers are one of those teams that, on paper, have nothing to play for. However, they need a bounce-back before the playoffs.
New Orleans (-1.5) @ Chicago – I’ll let 3 wood from JammieWearingFool handle this one – “The Bears have the 25th rated offense and the 28th rated defense. The Saints have the 5th rated offense and the 29th defense. So both defenses are equally bad, but New Orleans has a much better offense than the Bears. The weather Sunday in Chicago is supposed to be 35 degrees and cloudy, not so bad. The Bears have absolutely nothing to play for and have IR’d a lot of their players to protect them. Therefore, I take the Saints in a close one.”
Minnesota @ Denver (+3) – All in all it was all just bricks in the rookie wall.
New England (-14) @ NY Giants – Jimmy Hoffa says take the over-47.
Buffalo (+8) @ Philadelphia – You may want/like/get the points, but you’re not gonna need them. Stat of the week – Buffalo is 7-2 against teams that have not locked into the playoffs (including a win over the Redskins, which have the inside track on the last NFC wild-card spot).
Carolina (-3) @ Tampa Bay – Normally, I would say this line was whacked. However, Chuckie has already proven he will rest players, the Bucs have nothing to play for because of that, and the Bucs have not swept the Panthers since 2002.
Cincinnati (-3) @ Miami – Game of the Weak material here. Go under-45.
Jacksonville (+6.5 – game currently crossed out at Bodog) @ Houston – The AFC South is the toughest division in the NFL this year; last-place Houston is 7-8.
Seattle (pick’em) @ Atlanta – I don’t care if the Seahags have nothing to play for; the Dirty Birds have no business not giving boku points here.
San Francisco @ Cleveland (-10 – game currently crossed out at Bodog) – Neo is home one last time.
Dallas (+9) @ Washington – This is your mistake line of the week. It matters not that Dallas has home field wrapped up or that Terrell Owens will be out; they have a chance to screw the ‘Skins.
Pittsburgh (-3.5) @ Baltimore – The Steelers still have a chance at the #3 spot in the AFC. They desperately want it.
San Diego (-9) @ Oakland – Unfortunately for the Steelers, the Chargers have the inside track and the weaker opponent.
St. Louis @ Arizona (-6) – And the award for Most Disappointing Team goes to Duh Lambs.
Kansas City (+6) @ NY Jets – My man Hoffa is wondering what is going through the minds of the bookies; the Jets have no offense, and Kansas City has a defense.
Tennessee (-4.5) @ Indianapolis – The Colts have already announced they’re rolling over, as Jim Sorgi will be playing at least a half.

The Packer debacle was the perfect metaphor for Week 16. My last fantasy team standing made me a perfectly-sucky 0-4 in the playoffs (and team #4 didn’t even make it in). How the mighty fell:

Green Bay 7 (-9) @ Chicago 35 – Lovie Smith saved his job, dammit!
Kansas City 20 (+5-TIE) @ Detroit 25 – The losing record takes a week off in Detroit, vacations at the Egg compound.
Washington 32 @ Minnesota 21 (-6.5) – In one week, the Queens went from inevitable to outside looking in. Go Skins!
Pittsburgh 41 @ St. Louis 24 (+8) – I hate Mark Bulger.
Dallas 20 (-11-LOSS) @ Carolina 13 – The worst of all worlds.
Cleveland 14 (-3) @ Cincinnati 19 – I knew I should’ve taken Agent Smith at home against Mr. Anderson.
Houston 15 @ Indianapolis 38 (-7) – Did I actually nail a game through the uprights?
NY Giants 38 @ Buffalo 21 (+3) – That’s the last time I let Paul handle the money.
Oakland 11 @ Jacksonville 49 (-14) – Do the math.
Philadelphia 38 @ New Orleans 23 (-3.5) – Rule of broken thumb; offer the left hand to the guy with the hammer.
Atlanta 27 @ Arizona 30 (-10.5-LOSS) – Damn near as wrong as it gets.
Tampa Bay 21 (-6-LOSS) @ San Francisco – I’m soooooo going to have to have a “talk” with Gruden for not keeping the hammer down.
Miami 7 @ New England 28 (-22-LOSS) – The inevitable happened (take your pick on which inevitable)
Baltimore 6 @ Seattle 27 (-10 – line from MGM Mirage) – Thanks for keeping up the skeer, Walrus.
NY Jets 6 @ Tennessee 10 (-8.5-LOSS) – Ironically, the same rules applied to these nose picks.
Denver 3 @ San Diego 23 (-9) – When the scrubs play the 4th quarter, you know it’s all good.

The worst week ever ended up at 4-11-1 ATS and 1-1 O/U, to drop my ass back to .500 at 114-114-12 and kick the over/unders to the 19-12-1 curb. I’ll be back at it Saturday.