The new date of September 8, however, poses, at least potentially, a different conflict – one with the start of the NFL season, with the 13-time (and defending) World Champion Green Bay Packers hosting the New Orleans Saints. NBC, which is to carry the game starting at 7:30 pm, also has a 1-hour pregame scheduled for 6:30 pm. As of roughly a half-hour ago, CBS White House correspondent Mark Knoller reported that, while the start time of the speech had not been finalized, it would be done before the 7:30 pm kickoff. Earlier reports had widely speculated that the speech would begin at 6:30 pm.

The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reported, before it became clear (or at least as clear as the White House gets) that the speech would be done before kickoff, that Steve Wexler, vice president of radio and TV operations for Journal Broadcast Group, had Milwaukee’s NBC affiliate, WTMJ-TV, request that, in the event there was a conflict between the game itself and the speech, NBC make both feeds available to the NBC affiliates and that they be allowed to choose which feed to air where, and that WTMJ, if given the choice, would air the game on the main channel and the debate on a digital subchannel.

There hasn’t been any discussion regarding a potential pre-game conflict, which opens up the door for an NRE Poll. Do note that I am NOT asking what you would rather watch, or even what feed you would like seen on what part of the broadcast spectrum controlled by your local NBC affiliate. With that in mind, have at it.

- Packer fans, and football fans in general, tend to be somewhat Republican, though Badger football fans are split down the middle.
- While Brewer fans are pretty much split down the middle, those who care enough to watch the World Series are even more more Republican than football fans.
- Bucks fans, and basketball fans in general, tend to be Democratic. Two oddities on that front: Badger basketball fans were slightly Republican (and indeed more so than Badger football fans), and while NBA playoff viewers were quite Democratic, NBA finals viewers were only somewhat Democratic.

One more thing – the partisan skew between those who depend most on newspapers for news (the most-Democratic among 7 Midwest media markets reviewed by National Media) and those who depend most on radio for news (the 2nd-most-Republican among the same 7 Midwest media markets) is striking.

As always, I’m running a “Which #1 drops first” poll. The contenders for the dishonor are Ohio State, Kansas, Duke, and Pittsburgh. Since seconds count, do choose carefully. The poll will be, if I remember to do so, suspended while one of those teams are playing.

That was a microcosm of the season – lose key players (Charles Woodson and Donald Driver for the entire second half, Sam Shields for much of the second half, and Nick Collins to complete the defensive trifecta just before the end of the first half), not have a running game until very late, have dog-ass special (ed) teams, and still win, baby. That was sweet.

Now, I bet you’re wondering how this inveterate gambler did (or how I would have done had I been stupid enough to put money down). In a word, outside of the big play of Pack -3 and the minor Pack by 4-6, I would have blown chunks the size of Texas. The overs ruled the day, the Packers led at the half, and there wasn’t a score in the first 7:30.

Did I mention Baker’s Dozen?

• Full-game line: Packers -3 (EVEN) over the Steelers
• Full-game over/under: Under 45.5 (-105)
• Steelers total points: Under 21 (-105)
• Packers total points: Under 24 (-115)
• Score in the first 7:30 of the game: Yes (-170)
• Alternate over/under cracktion part 1 (37.5): Under 37.5 (+195)
• Alternate over/under craction part 2 (33.5): Under 33.5 (+300)
• Margin of victory: Packers by 4-6 points (11/2) (which means the Packers will win by a score of 17-13)
• Which team will be leading at halftime and which team will win the game: Tie/Packers (11/1)

That will leave a dent in your bookie’s pocket on the way to the Baker’s Dozen. One more thing…
GO PACK GO!
GO PACK GO!
GO PACK GO!
GO PACK GO!
GO PACK GO!
GO PACK GO!
GO PACK GO!
GO PACK GO!
GO PACK GO!
GO PACK GO!
GO PACK GO!
GO PACK GO!
GO PACK GO!

February, as we know, is Black History Month. February is also the official start of the drag racing season, beginning with the annual NHRA Winternationals at Pomona. Coincidence? Maybe. I can’t claim any expert knowledge about Nat Turner, Harriet Tubman, W.E.B. DuBois or other textbook notables, but I do know a bit about drag racing; and I know that African American gearheads have been trailblazing the quarter mile for some 50 years. They might not be Dr. King, but I think their stories deserve a retelling, too.

Some background: American car racing has three major branches — road racing, oval, and drag/lakes racing — and each has its own distinct socioeconomic history and heritage. Road racing first developed as the leisure pursuit of coastal bluebloods, who had the cash to afford pricey European sports cars and the winding country lanes on which to play with them. Oval track racing — including open wheel, sprints, and stock cars — has always been a more blue collar phenomenon, evolving out of the county fairground horse tracks of the Midwest and South. Nascar shares this heritage, along with an additional link to moonshine runners in the segregated South. For obvious economic and social reasons, neither of these racing forums were conducive to Black participation.

By contrast, drag racing evolved with fewer cultural barriers. Like oval track racing it was a blue collar phenomenon, a natural extension of straight-line street racing by young guys in cheap homebuilt hot rods. Unlike oval racing, it developed largely on the postwar West Coast, a society less encumbered by the legacy of segregation. As a result drag racing was more or less born ‘multicultural’ and egalitarian; the roll call of hod rodding greats — Xydias, Iskenderian, Hirohata, Pedregon, Karamesines — reads like a passenger list from Ellis Island. And African Americans were there from its inception.

I have but three words to say on the way to the Baker’s Dozen vs. Seventh Heaven game…

GO PACK GO!!!

Click here to view the embedded video.

Duh Bears may have backed into the NFC North title, but they will end the season with a two-game losing streak, starting on Sunday against the Packers.

Just as a reminder, come on over to Papa’s starting 45 minutes before kickoff (or 2:30 pm) and celebrate both Christmas and a trip to the playoffs for the Pack with the extended Drinking Right crew.

The full Weekly Standard story describes the footage in question, and the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel embedded a YouTube version of the ad (at least while YouTube still has it up; I suspect the NFL will issue a takedown notice momentarily).

The 2011 #IndyCar schedule will be announced Friday at….The Milwaukee Mile. That would seem to be a rather large clue.

I guess the State Fair Park Board found the $400,000 IndyCar wanted to run a race weekend next year. There is a very-”convenient” break in the confirmed part of the 2011 schedule between the Indianapolis 500 and the twin race at Texas Motor Speedway, as the TMS date was pushed back from the week after Indy it was this year to two weeks after Indy. Between 1949 and this year, that weekend after Indy had traditionally seen an open-wheel series at the Milwaukee Mile, but TMS took the date when Wisconsin Motorsports, the last private promoter at the Mile, folded and stiffed IndyCar for $1 million and NASCAR for about $2 million.

Meanwhile, in the other conference, Ohio State (not-so-affectionately known as OverratedSU around these parts and back at the Bar when it was up and running for consistently choking against other national powerhouses), Penn State and Wisconsin, all consistent contenders for the Big Ten title the past decade, will be beating each other up to see who gets to play in the Cornhusker Invitatio…er, Big Ten Championship game, and which two get lesser bowl opportunities.

The inclusion of Wisconsin in the Power Division also threatened to break up two long-standing rivalries with associated trophies, one with Minnesota for Paul Bunyan’s Axe and one with Iowa for the Heartland Trophy. The Big Ten officials graciously decided to make one cross-division rivalry a guaranteed one for every team. Fortunately for Bucky, it’s the most-played rivalry in Division I-A sports that didn’t visit the proverbial chopping block.

First, I should explain that the official “quality start” (6 or more innings pitched, 3 or less earned runs) isn’t a real measure. You’re depending on 3 innings of pen work night after night, and your defense could easily cost the team any chance of winning because runs scored as a result of an error aren’t “earned”. Crank upped it to a 7-inning minimum and a 2-run (earned or otherwise) maximum, and renamed it “High Quality Start” to get things to at most the setup/closer and keep things close enough for the offensive half of the Earl Weaver Maxim to win it.

Some of the names on the list shouldn’t surprise Milwaukee fans – Warren Spahn (who has the highest number of wins off of HQS), Lew Burdette, Don Sutton (who has the most HQS), Jim Slaton and CC Sabathia. What is somewhat surprising is that Slaton is the only player who spent significant time with the Brewers; in fact, Slaton got 80 of his 100 HQS in Brewer Blue to lead the team.

A couple more Brewers’ notes: How special was the half-season Sabathia spent here in 2008? 10 of his 112 HQS came in the last part of 2008. Meanwhile, Yovanni Gallardo has 20 HQS in his 74 games started. While that ratio will get him onto the 100 HQS list eventually, he won’t get onto the rarified 200 HQS list unless he picks it up.

Unless you’ve been in a cave the last 2 years, NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell has been looking at expanding the NFL season. Originally, he wanted to get it done in time for 2011 and the scheduled start of the new collective bargaining agreement with the NFL Players’ Association, but the clock has slid both that plan and the odds of an on-time new CBA back.

Originally, the thought was to add a single game, possibly at neutral sites, and likely a few outside the US if they went to neutral sites. That has morphed into converting 2 of the 4-5 preseason games into 2 additional regular-season games.

In addition to the injury angle that the NFLPA and some others have noted, that would make a hash of the “perfect” schedule the NFL put together when they went to 32 teams. Right now, each team plays its 3 division rivals in a home-and-home series, the 4 teams from a different division of the same conference, the 4 teams from a division in the other conference, and the 2 teams they otherwise wouldn’t play that finished in the same place in their division the previous year (the “parity” conference games). In fact, those who know how to read the standings, break ties, and remember previous seasons’ schedules know who their team is playing, and for 14 of those games, where, the moment the final gun goes off in the last regular-season game, with only the dates to be filled in.

A single added game would throw the entirety of that picture out of balance. Adding 2 games would, if schedule harmony were to be preserved, necessitate the elimination of the “parity” conference games in favor of playing a third division in either conference. Adding 3 games, which could be accomplished either by adding a third division in a team’s conference or adding “parity” non-conference games, would certainly seem make for a too-long season.

Since most of you who read this place are football fans (or at least I hope you are), it’s time to toss it out to the readership. Unlike Chicago and locations with court-ordered one-man/many-vote situations, vote early and vote once, because the poll closes at noon July 31.

1. Only the New York Mets have as few road wins (4-12) as the Brewers have home wins, but they got their 4 road wins in two fewer games.
2. The Baltimore Orioles, who have the worst road record at 5-15 as part of a MLB-worst 12-26, have a better road record than the Brewers’ home record.
3. .222 is the batting average of Brandon Inge, the Detroit Tigers third baseman.
4. Out of 178 players who are “qualified” to be on MLB’s leaderboards (i.e., those who have had 3.1 plate appearances, which includes Inge), only 25 have a lower batting average. Interestingly, while no current Brewers are on that list, two Brewer castoffs – Lyle Overbay and Carlos Lee – are.
5. Out of those 178 “qualified” players, only one has a lower slugging percentage, St. Louis Cardinals shortstop Brendan Ryan (.219).
6. Again out of those 178 “qualified” players, nobody has a lower on-base percentage. Chicago Cubs third baseman Aramis Ramirez (.234) is closest.

Boo stale beer!

Of course, I’m still sticking by my prediction that Syracuse will not make the Sweet 16. The problem was, I didn’t take a look at the timing before I made my selection.

- First off, we got the play-in game tonight between Winthrop and Arkansas-Pine Bluff. The winner gets to be sacrificed on Friday by Duke. Take Arkansas-Pine Bluff to be the first team out.

- Second, it’s time to start the annual “Which #1 seed will be knocked out first?” poll. Since we’ve never had a #16 knock off a #1, you’ll most-likely have until Saturday to actually get your choice in. While I may or may not remember to pause the poll while a #1 is playing, I will throw out any guesses entered while a #1 team is playing.

I’ll be back with the Bouncing Mozzarella bracket Thursday morning – I don’t want you thieves to steal my bracket and go the other way.

- We almost could call it the Roushketeer Invitational. In addition to McMurray winning it, we had Greg Biffle 3rd, Matt Kenseth 8th (more on him in a bit), Carl Edwards 9th, Jeff Burton 11th, Mark Martin 12th, Ragan 16th and Kurt Busch 22nd.

- While the 8th place finish for Kenseth was good considering up until the last restart he had been bascially mid-20s all day and half the night, it’s not exactly how I’d draw it up – “Let’s put the wrong shocks in the car, run wicked-loose all day, get a Darlington stripe, replace the shocks after the first red flag, chew up the splitter just before the second red flag, fix that after red flag #2, and then hang around in the back of the lead pack until the white flag, which won’t be until lap 207.”

- Speaking of all day and half the night, that was an epic pavement fail in turn 2. You just can’t have potholes appearing right where the right-side tires need to be on the bottom groove. I don’t care what Tony Stewart and Edwards say – it’s time to repave the track. Oh, and repaving just a portion just isn’t going to cut it. Trust me on this one.

At the very least, NASCAR could have the go-or-go-homers qualify and start behind the “guaranteed” drivers. It would be better if NASCAR would be open to moving qualifying from its scheduled time to get it in.

- Related to that, Jack Roush (likely with some cash from Paul Menard’s dad John) bought Menard’s way into the race after the new-for-2010 #98 team drew the 49th position in the qualifying order and initially got frozen out after the rainout. While higher-profile drivers buying a “field-filler’s” starting spot is nothing new in NASCAR, usually it involves the owner of the bought-out team getting the owners’ points earned by the replacement driver.

What makes the Menard/Roush purchase so unusual is that they paid 5 teams (the drawn-into-the-show-and-scheduled-to-be-start-and-parked #97 NEMCO Chevy of Jeff Fuller, plus the 4 teams between them and the 43rd spot) to withdraw from the event. The significance of that is that the #98 not only gets the 150 owners’ points instead of the 16 they would have picked up in the “normal” deal, the teams that pulled out, which includes a couple of teams that hoped to run the full schedule, don’t get either the points or the attempt credit. Of course, since only the start-and-park NEMCO team would have otherwise picked up cash, and Menard was easily strong enough to have made the field had there been qualifying, maybe it’s time for a poll.

- Speaking of Menard, he took out the first of two females in the race, Chrissy Wallace, just as the cars got all the way up to speed.

- The other female in the race, Danica Patrick, took a car from an organization (JR Motorsports) that is capable of putting a front-running car out there and ran mid-pack until she drove right into the first Big One. In short, just another rookie performance.

- Speaking of JR Motorsports, her car owner, Dale Earnhardt Jr., was the biggest victim of the second Big One, taking a ride on the roof after he got turned on the backstretch.

- In the end, another spring Daytona race, another Tony Stewart win. Except for the snake-bit heartaches in the Daytona 500 and 5 fewer Cup trophies, it’s fair to say that Smoke is this generation’s Dale Earnhardt St.

One thing is certain in all of this. The Saints are no longer losers. They are now the very best.

On this day, we all wanted to be in that number. The Saints went marching in.

In 213 days, the NFL 2010 season kicks off. Before that is the NFL Draft.

The Saints are the defending champions, and Super Bowl XLIV is in the history books forever.

31-17 Saints

I strongly recommend you read the entire writeup. It is far better than anything you’ll find on any sports page, local or national.

Let’s start with the easiest division, the AFC West. Denver would be the only team at 8-8, so they go on to the first wild-card tiebreaker

Next, let’s go to the AFC North. Baltimore split their season series with Pittsburgh, but they have a better division record (3-3 versus 2-4). Baltimore would go on to the first wild-card tiebreaker.

The AFC East is a bit easier as Miami swept New York, and they would go on to the first wild-card tiebreaker.

Finally, we get to the wild division, the AFC South. Jacksonville has the best head-to-head-to-head record of the three teams (3-1 versus 2-2 for Tennessee and 1-3 for Houston), so they would go on to the first wild-card tiebreaker.

Now, we can go to the conference-level tiebreakers between Denver, Baltimore, Miami and Jacksonville:

• No team either beat or lost to all of the others, so the first tiebreaker (head-to-head sweep/swept) is out.
• Each team would have a 6-6 conference record, so the second tiebreaker (conference record) is out.
• The four teams do not have 4 games against common opponents (sharing only Indianapolis and New England), so the third tiebreaker (record against common opponents, minimum of 4 games apiece) is out.
• That devolves to the 4th tiebreaker, strength of victory. Between the games through tonight and the games necessary to create the 8-8 tie, Denver would have a SoV of 66-59, Baltimore would have a SoV of 58-67, Miami would have a SoV of 55-69, and Jacksonville would have a SoV of 46-80.

Denver would get the first wild-card spot based on strength of victory (none of the other 3 teams can make up the 10+ games). If either Baltimore or Miami has the 2nd-best strength of victory outright, that team would get the second wild-card spot since Jacksonville would not be able to catch either team. However, a difference of 2 1/2 games going into tomorrow night’s game means that it is possible they would tie. In that case, they would go to a two-team tiebreaker:

Revisions/extensions (11:20 pm 12/27/2009) - Things only start over if a tie remains after breaking up a 4-way tie. The post has been shortened to reflect that.

R&E part 2 (11:25 pm 12/27/2009) - Corrected a rather-embarrassing typo. I originally listed Houston twice in the list of 8.

• The Dallas Cowboys knocked out the remaining teams that could have finished 8-8 going into the weekend (the Seattle Seahawks and Carolina Panthers) as well as the Atlanta Falcons by defeating the previously-unbeaten New Orleans Saints.
• The Minnesota Vikings failed to take advantage by losing to those same Panthers, but backed into the NFC North crown as the Green Bay Packers choked against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
• The Philadelphia Eagles got into the playoffs by beating (and knocking out of wild-card contention) the San Francisco 49ers.
• The Arizona Cardinals finally seized the opportunity to take the NFC West crown by knocking off the Detroit Lions.

In the playoffs

New Orleans Saints (13-1, 9-1 NFC, won the NFC South) – The Saints, who have already claimed the NFC South crown and a first-round bye, are still in the driver’s seat despite losing to the Dallas Cowboys. However, if they and the Minnesota Vikings tie, the Vikings would win the tiebreaker for home-field advantage based on a better conference record. The good news is that since the Vikings also lost, the magic number to clinch is 0.5 (or a tie by either the Saints or the Vikings). Given the schedule of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-12) on Sunday and the Carolina Panthers (6-8) on the road on 1/3, it is very likely they will get home-field advantage.

Minnesota Vikings (11-3, 8-2 NFC, won the NFC North) – The Vikings backed their way into the NFC North crown as they swept the Green Bay Packers. They would hold the tiebreaker against the New Orleans Saints (conference record) for home-field advantage, but would not hold any tiebreakers involving the Arizona Cardinals (who beat the Vikings, and would have a better conference record), Philadelphia Eagles (conference record) or Dallas Cowboys (conference record). Their magic number to get a bye is still 1.5 against the Eagles, and 0.5 against the Cardinals and Cowboys. They have the Chicago Bears (5-9) on the road Monday, and the New York Giants (8-6) at home on 1/3.

Philadelphia Eagles (10-4, 9-2 NFC, 1st in the NFC East) – The Eagles already swept the New York Giants, so they’re in the playoffs. They would hold any tiebreakers involving the Minnesota Vikings (conference record) or the Arizona Cardinals (conference record or common opponents). The magic number to clinch the NFC East crown is 1.5 over the Dallas Cowboys (who already beat the Eagles once); they also would win the NFC East if there were a three-way tie at 10-6 (the Cowboys would be out on division record, with the Giants out on the head-to-head sweep). Their remaining games are against the Denver Broncos (8-6) Sunday and at the Cowboys (9-5) 1/3.

Arizona Cardinals (9-5, 7-3 NFC, won the NFC West) – They hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Minnesota Vikings (by victory) and the Dallas Cowboys (common opponents), but would lose any tiebreaker to the Philadelphia Eagles (conference record/common opponents). Their remaining games are both at home – against the St. Louis Rams (2-12) Sunday and against the Green Bay Packers (9-5) 1/3.

Scrambling to get in

Green Bay Packers (9-5, 7-3 NFC, 1st in the wild-card race) – The Packers hold the tiebreakers against the Dallas Cowboys (by win) and the Atlanta Falcons (conference record), but lose the head-to-head tiebreaker to the New York Giants (common opponents). Their magic number is 2 over the Cowboys or 1.5 over the Giants. Their remaining games are against the Seattle Seahawks (5-9) Sunday and at the Arizona Cardinals (9-5) 1/3.

Dallas Cowboys (9-5, 7-3 NFC, 2nd NFC East, 2nd wild-card) – The formula is deceptively-simple – win out and they’re in as NFC East champs by virtue of sweeping the Philadelphia Eagles (10-4). Unfortunately, not only do they have a horrid December record over the last several years, they also don’t have the head-to-head tiebreaker against the Green Bay Packers (lost to them) or the New York Giants (got swept by them), or the three-way tiebreaker against the Eagles and Giants at 10-6 (they would have the worst division record). They did, however, beat the Eagles once, with the rematch in Dallas on 1/3, and would have the tiebreaker against the Arizona Cardinals (common opponents), the Minnesota Vikings (conference record), and the Atlanta Falcons (conference record). Their magic number is 1.5 over the Giants. Besides the Eagles to close the season, they get the Washington Redskins (4-9) on the road Sunday.

New York Giants (8-6, 6-4 NFC, 3rd NFC East, 3rd wild-card) – They can no longer win the NFC East as the Philadelphia Eagles swept them. However, they do hold the tiebreakers over the Green Bay Packers (common opponents), the Cowboys (swept them) and Atlanta Falcons (conference record). Their remaining games are against the Carolina Panthers (6-8) Sunday and at the Minnesota Vikings (11-2) 1/3.

The AFC is just too crowded to summarize. Besides, my allegiance is to the Pack, and they’re in the NFC.

In the playoffs

New Orleans Saints (13-0, 9-0 NFC, 1st in the NFC South) – The Saints, who have already claimed the NFC South crown and a first-round bye, are in the driver’s seat. However, unlike the also-undefeated Indianapolis Colts, they do not yet have home-field advantage locked up. In fact, if they and the Minnesota Vikings tie, the Vikings would win the tiebreaker based on a better conference record. The magic number for home-field advantage through the playoffs is 1.5 (any combination of Saints wins or Vikings losses, with a tie counting as a half). Given the schedule of the Dallas Cowboys (8-5) on Thursday, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-12) on 12/27 and the Carolina Panthers (5-8) on the road on 1/3, it is at least even money the Saints will finish 16-0.

Minnesota Vikings (11-2, 8-1 NFC, 1st in the NFC North) – The Vikings have not yet locked up the NFC North crown, but they do have at least a wild-card berth locked up. They can win the NFC North with a win or a Green Bay Packers loss (or two ties between the two teams) as they swept the Packers. Assuming they win the NFC North, and they and the Arizona Cardinals (who beat the Vikings) do not both finish 11-5, their magic number to lock up a first-round bye is 1.5 (any combination of Vikings wins or Philadelphia Eagles losses, with a tie counting as half). They have the Carolina Panthers (5-8) on the road Sunday, the Chicago Bears (5-8) on the road 12/28 (so much for ESPN’s hope that game would mean anything), and the New York Giants (7-6) at home on 1/3.

In the driver’s seat

Philadelphia Eagles (9-4, 8-2 NFC, 1st in the NFC East) – The Eagles already swept the New York Giants, beat the Atlanta Falcons, and would hold any tiebreakers involving the Minnesota Vikings (conference record) and/or the Arizona Cardinals (common opponents). They can get two more head-to-head tiebreakers and the three-way East tiebreaker with games against the San Francisco 49ers and the Dallas Cowboys. A win against the Niners (6-7) at home on Sunday (or a tie by either team in any remaining game and a tie/loss by the Giants, or one win in their other two games) gets them into the playoffs. If necessary, a win at the Cowboys (8-5) on 1/3 gets them the division crown based on winning either the head-to-head tiebreaker against the Cowboys (division record) or a three-way against the Cowboys and the Giants (games against each other). Beyond that, the magic number for the division is 2.5 versus the Cowboys and 0.5 versus the Giants. Sandwiched between the two games with possible playoff implications is a game against the Denver Broncos (8-5) on 12/27.

Arizona Cardinals (8-5, 6-3 NFC, 1st in the NFC West) – They blew a chance to clinch the NFC West last night by getting swept by the San Francisco 49ers. However, they did beat the Minnesota Vikings, so they do have a theoretical shot at a first-round bye (it requires a two-way tie; the Cardinals would lose in a 3-way tie with the Vikings and the Philadelphia Eagles). Their magic number to clinch the NFC West is 1.5 (any combination of Cardinals wins or Niners losses, with ties counting for half), as they swept the Seattle Seahawks, though a three-way tie would give the NFC West to the Niners based on games against each other. On the wild-card end of things should they degenerate to that point, their magic number is 3 against the Dallas Cowboys, 2 against the Atlanta Falcons, and 1 against the Carolina Panthers. They also hold head-to-head tiebreakers over the New York Giants (by win) and Cowboys (common opponents), and have to play the Green Bay Packers (9-4) on 1/3, but lose head-to-head tiebreakers to the Eagles (common opponents) and the Panthers (by loss). They also would have the head-to-head tiebreaker against the Falcons (6-7) via conference record unless they both finish 8-8 and the Falcons win their remaining conference game; in that case, the Falcons would take it based on the record against common opponents. Their other games are at Detroit (2-11) Sunday and against St. Louis (1-12) 12/27.

Green Bay Packers (9-4, 7-3 NFC, 2nd NFC North, 1st wild-card) – The Packers still have a theoretical chance to take the NFC North crown, but since they got swept by the Minnesota Vikings, it would take a total collapse (outlined above). They hold head-to-head tiebreakers against the Dallas Cowboys (by win), San Francisco 49ers (by win) and Atlanta Falcons (conference record), and have to play the Arizona Cardinals (8-5) 1/3, but lose the head-to-head tiebreaker to the New York Giants (common opponents). Their magic number is 1 over both the Cowboys and Giants. Their other games are at the Pittsburgh Steelers (6-7) Sunday and against the Seattle Seahawks (5-8) 12/27.

Scrambling to get in

Dallas Cowboys (8-5, 6-3 NFC, 2nd NFC East, 2nd wild-card) – The formula is deceptively-simple – win out and they’re in as NFC East champs by virtue of sweeping the Philadelphia Eagles (9-4). Unfortunately, not only do they have a horrid December record over the last several years, they also don’t have the tiebreaker against the Packers (lost to them) or the Giants (got swept by them). They did, however, beat the Eagles once (they play in Dallas on 1/3), the Falcons, the Panthers and the Seahawks, and hold the tiebreaker over the Niners (common opponents). Besides the Eagles to close the season, they get the New Orleans Saints (13-0) on the road Sunday and the Washington Redskins (4-9) on the road 12/27.

New York Giants (7-6, 5-4 NFC, 3rd NFC East, 3rd wild-card) – Their chances took a body blow when they got swept by the Philadelphia Eagles, but things could get very interesting in a 3-way tie in the NFC East. Outside of that, they do hold head-to-head tiebreakers over the Green Bay Packers (common opponents), Dallas Cowboys (swept them), Atlanta Falcons (beat them), and Seattle Seahawks (common opponents), have to play the Panthers (5-8) at home 12/27, and would lose the tiebreaker to the Arizona Cardinals (lost to them). Sandwiching the Panthers game are trips to the Washington Redskins (4-9) Monday night and the Minnesota Vikings (11-2) 1/3.

On life support

San Francisco 49ers (6-7, 5-4 NFC, 2nd NFC West, 4th wild-card) – They do hold all the tiebreakers against their NFC West foes (swept the Arizona Cardinals, have a better division record than the Seattle Seahawks, and have the best record against each other). They also would have the tiebreaker against the Dallas Cowboys (conference record), and have to play at the Philadelphia Eagles (9-4) Sunday, but would lose the tiebreaker to the Green Bay Packers (lost to them), Atlanta Falcons (lost to them) and Carolina Panthers (conference record). After Sunday’s game, they get Detroit (2-11) at home 12/27 and St. Louis (1-12) on the road 1/3.

Atlanta Falcons (6-7, 5-6 NFC, 2nd NFC South, 5th wild-card) – Atlanta holds only the head-to-head tiebreaker against the San Francisco 49ers outright by virtue of beating them, while they lost to the Philadelphia Eagles, Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants, and would lose the tiebreaker to the Carolina Panthers (split, but the Panthers would have a better record against common opponents). Also, there is one and only scenario where they would have the tiebreaker over the Arizona Cardinals – they both finish 8-8 and the Falcons win their remaining conference game at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-12) 1/3. Before then, they play the New York Jets (7-6) on the road Sunday and the Buffalo Bills (5-8) at home 12/27.

Being fitted for a toe-tag

Carolina Panthers (5-8, 5-4 NFC, 3rd NFC South, 6th wild-card) – First, they have to beat the Minnesota Vikings (11-2) on Sunday, the New York Giants (7-6) on the road 12/27 and the New Orleans Saints (13-0) on 1/3. Next, they must have the Giants (who they would have beaten), Atlanta Falcons (6-7, with whom they split), Dallas Cowboys (8-5, who beat them) and San Francisco 49ers (6-7) end up with at least 8 losses, with the Niners and/or the Giants (and/or the Arizona Cardinals if the Niners go 8-8 to win the NFC West) ending up at 8-8 along with them and the Cowboys. If that happens, no matter what the combination is, the Panthers would be in the playoffs.

Seattle Seahawks (5-8, 4-6 NFC, 3rd NFC West, 7th wild-card) – The good news is getting to 8-8 is easier for the Seahawks, with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-12) on Sunday, the Green Bay Packers (9-4) on the road 12/27, and the Tennessee Titans (6-7) on 1/3. The bad news is they do not win any division tiebreakers nor any head-to-head tiebreakers with teams that can finish 8-8. The only possible way for them to make the playoffs is if neither the Carolina Panthers (5-8) nor the San Francisco 49ers (6-7) get 8 wins, if the Dallas Cowboys (8-5), New York Giants (7-6) and Atlanta Falcons (6-7) finish 8-8, AND the Falcons win their remaining conference game to create a 3-way conference record tie between the Falcons, Giants and Seahawks, AND THEN it depends on strength of victory (which doesn’t look good for the Seahawks, seeing three of their victims have a grand total of three wins).

However, the news isn’t quite completely hopeless. Despite that collapse, Dave Kallman reports that NASCAR has not yet pulled the scheduled 2010 dates, the same weekend as the Sprint Cup race in Sonoma, California, partly because nobody else wants those dates, and partly because there’s still hope that a group headed by former promoter Frank Giuffre and including enough money to make that payment will get the rights to the track.

A bit of history of recent promoters and the State Fair Park board is in order, with a lot of help on the numbers from the various reports on State Fair operations between 2002 and 2009 from the Legislative Audit Bureau and drawing on the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel for recent events:

• In 1992, CART car owner Carl Haas took over race promotions at the Mile from Frank and Dominic Giuffre, who had been bought out by the board. In exchange for exclusive promotion rights (with one guaranteed major race required, CART’s June race usually held the weekend after the Indy 500, and an effort to secure a second), access to the board’s bonding authority, and most of the revenues generated by the track, Haas Racing Inc. would pay a guaranteed rent of $300,000 and service any track-improvement debt financed through said bonding authority. By 2001, that debt service had become over $375,000 per year.
• In 1995, Haas Racing had secured that second major race, with NASCAR coming back with the Busch Series after a 2-year run in the 1980s and the then-new Craftsman Truck Series.
• After Haas Racing lost $1 million in both 2000 and 2001, due in large part to the failing condition of CART in its losing war against the Indy Racing League, they and the board agreed to finally replace the crumbling 1930s WPA-built grandstand and somewhat-newer bleachers to the tune of $20 million, with the bleachers replaced in time for the 2002 racing season and the grandstand replaced in time for the 2003 racing season to help alleviate that. Of note, while Haas Racing lost $1 million in 2001, the State Fair made $395,000 off that agreement.
• An estimate done by a private company in 2000, specifically the same one that did an analysis of the effects of building what became the very-troubled Expo Center (that story is for another post), claimed that, after a 1st-year loss of about $200,000, the new grandstand and the additional dates and revenues it would allow would let Haas make a profit of between $360,000 and $720,000.
• As part of that construction, the board and Haas Racing restructured their deal in 2002 to eliminate the minimum guaranteed rental, change the debt-service requirement to be in effect only if Haas turned a profit, create a hard 50% profit-sharing agreement, give the board veto rights over Haas Racing’s track operating budget, and give the board several new termination rights.
• In November 2002, Jim Doyle (D) won the gubernatorial election over Scott McCallum (R), who took over the governor’s office in 2001 when Tommy Thompson left to become HHS Secretary. That began to shift the makeup of the board as two members of the cabinet (the secretary of tourism and the secretary of agriculture, trade and consumer protection) are automatically members, and the 7 other members not tied to the Legislature (each house has a majority and a minority member) are appointed by the governor to 5-year terms.
• In May 2003, citing a loss to the Fair Park of $341,743 due entirely to $376,000 in debt-service payments Haas Racing did not make as they did not make a profit in 2002 (thanks also in part to the bleacher-only nature of the track in 2002 as the new grandstand was not complete), the board bought out the contract for $250,000 two days before the CART racing weekend and took over operations. That grandstand had been greatly scaled back to reduce its cost, which also had the effect of reducing its money-generating potential.
• Despite getting IRL to come to the Mile in 2004, the board lost $693,600 on track operations in 2003 (including the $250,000 buyout of Haas Racing), $3.6 million in 2004, and $2.9 million in 2005. Debt service increased to $1.8-$1.9 million in the latter two years as the full effect of the new grandstand and other track improvements mandated by the various series took effect. Of note, the 2004 LRB report made the claim that the 2000 study was grossly optimistic, but failed to note that the scope of the grandstand rebuild was cut.
• The board attempted to get an unnamed promoter to assume operation of the track beginning in late 2004, with requirements that the promoter pay off the entire remaining debt service through the license fee, secure a letter of credit to ensure that 2 years’ of payment would be made, and pay for all maintenance and future improvements to the track outside the board’s bonding authority, but that initial attempt fell through in April 2005.
• Doyle was the grand marshal for the NASCAR Busch Series race in June 2005, and he was roundly booed (I remember because I was at that race).
• In August 2005, with Doyle appointees, cabinet members and the Democrats now in the majority, Milwaukee Mile Holdings LLC, a brand-new entity with no prior experience at track promotion, was announced as the new promoter, and they took over in 2006, with an average license fee of $1.8 million. The board did give MMH parking revenues for the 134 days per year it had control over the track (something not originally envisioned, and something that Haas Racing did not enjoy), secured the first year of the $3.6 million line of credit for MMH (with a requirement that MMH renew it annually), and knocked $1.5 million off the 2006 fee. MMH also acquired a 4-year right to buy a park-surrounded property owned by a gas company and give it to the board after remediation in exchange for board-owned property between the track (still owned by the board) and Greenfield Ave to the south.
• With ChampCar (nee CART) departing the Mile after the 2006 season, MMH was once again reduced to two major series weekends, with the IRL assuming the CART/ChampCar weekend-after-Indy date in 2007.
• In April 2007, MMH assigned its right to buy that gas tank farm to the board (which then bought the land from the gas company) and agreed to pay the board for that transaction if it decided to acquire the land south of the track (never acquired), while the board agreed to defer $722,000 of the $1.8 million payment from June 2007 to December 2007 and agreed that the license agreement could be reopened after the 2007 racing season.
• In December 2007, MMH filed notice of claim against the board seeking $6.4 million and a release from the license agreement claiming, among other things, a loss of a track sponsor due to the board’s actions and a misreprentation of revenues in the 2005 negotiations.
• In February 2008, MMH and the board agreed on modifications, including a reduction and further deferral of that $722,000 down to $400,000, a reduction in the license fee to $1 million (with a sliding-scale deferral of those payments to 2017-2023), a reduction in the number of days MMH had control of the track to 75, and a change in the land swap from ownership to ground-lease rights on a smaller parcel. It also required MMH to secure a fresh letter of credit that included all the defered payments by March 2008.
• MMH failed to do so by either March 2008 or its original annual renewal date of August 31, 2008. They claimed to have sustained $5.1 million in losses since 2006, and wanted to get rid of the license fee entirely before providing an updated letter of credit. The 2009 LAB memo on State Fair operations is unclear whether one was produced for 2009.
• MMH ultimately provided a 2-year notice of termination in December 2008, stating at that time it could not pay the IRL or NASCAR fees, and giving the board permission to get another promoter. The board and the Department of Justice responded in February 2009 by terminating the license agreement due to a lack of a letter of credit, deemed by the DOJ as an act of default. The 2009 LAB report indicates that the DOJ plans on suing MMH for $2.7 million in damages.
• MMH then-President of Operations Charles Napier formed Wisconsin Motorsports LLC to assume racing operations, which then entered into a 10-year agreement with the board – $180,000 in license fees plus 10% of gross monthly revenue (less only directly-related sales costs and NASCAR/IRL sanctioning fees). That revenue-sharing was to be capped at $300,000 in 2009, $350,000 in 2010, $400,000 in 2011, and $450,000 in 2012.
• Meanwhile, three things severely hampered Wisconsin Motorsports’ ability to make a go of it in 2009, even if they had money and not just a couple people who worked for MMH:
  • The economy continued to crater.
  • Wisconsin Motorsports decided to honor $1 million in tickets sold by MMH even though MMH did not turn over the money. Related to that, MMH owed vendors between $500,000 and $800,000 as of May 2009.
  • NASCAR implemented a ban on unsanctioned testing at all tracks where it runs a race at any level. In previous years, since the Winston/Nextel/Sprint Cup Series did not have a race at the Mile, Cup teams could test here, usually in preparation for the races at New Hampshire.
• Unfortunately, Wisconsin Motorsports did not have the money. They owe IRL about $200,000 in unpaid sanctioning fees, and despite NASCAR taking all the vendor money directly during their weekend here, they owe NASCAR $1.8 million in unpaid sanctioning fees.
• In July 2009, Wisconsin Motorsports went under, and cancelled the Wisconsin All-Star Weekend scheduled for the end of August. Limited minor events, such as an SCCA event, did go on, while the board searched for a new promoter. The board declared that it would not be responsible for the overdue sanctioning fees.
• In August 2009, Historic Mile LLC, comprised of Tony Machi, Jim Beaudoin, and Wisconsin Motorsports GM/COO Steve Jones (who left the group later in the month), was announced as the intended promoter for 2010. That was dependent on them getting committments from IRL (which had already released its 2010 schedule without the Mile on it) and NASCAR. They were chosen over several other groups, including one featuring the Giuffre brothers and reportedly including long-time CART/IRL team owner and owner of the Menard’s home improvement store chain John Menard (later confirmed to be part of the group).
• In mid-September 2009, NASCAR announced that the Mile would have both Camping World Truck and Nationwide Series dates on the same weekend as the Sprint Cup race in Sonoma, just as in recent years.
• Despite a disagreement between Historic Mile and the Giuffres on whether the Giuffres would provide Historic Mile a loan, as well as a lack of disclosure from Historic Mile who beyond Machi and Beaudoin was involved in that venture, the board and Historic Mile signed a 10-year agreemnent-in-principle at the end of September 2009. At the time, Machi claimed that Historic Mile made NASCAR “happy” (since disproven).
• Simultaneously, while Dominic Giuffre said he was no longer interested in running the Mile, Frank said he was, and listed his other partners as Menard, fellow track promoter John Kaishian, and the Deckers that put on Eagle River’s World Championship Snowmobile Derby.

Since I am a Matt Kenseth fan, and Matt, his father Roy and his son Ross decided to come down to Oak Creek to help celebrate the re-opening of the Oak Creek Farm and Fleet store (helped by the fact F&F is Ross’ main sponsor), I decided to brave the rain and the traffic to meet them and get an autograph and a few pictures. The pics from the “good” camera are up on my Flickr account, while the early ones from the “smart”phone went up on Twitpic.

Even though I live a few minutes from the Farm and Fleet, I got there late thanks to the same traffic that held up the Kenseths. The parking lot was completely full, and I ended up parking on a side street a few-minute walk in the rain from the store. That rain also limited the outdoor display to the hauler and the DeWalt show car.

Because I was late, I didn’t get a ticket, at least initially. However, I got extremely lucky when somebody who somehow had an extra ticket had his cell phone die on him, and he asked me to message him a pic. Because it is easier for me to send it via e-mail, I did that instead (and it also allowed me to let him know about the full set).

Since that extra ticket was in the last few of the 400 to get tickets, I decided to grab a couple of crowd-related shots. The shot of the night was a young fan up on the table between Matt and Ross. Everybody, and I mean EVERYBODY with a camera was taking pictures of that.

Do click on the pic for the standard Flickr sizing options, including the gonzo-sized one

One of the hardest shots to get was Ross’ trophy collection. The line to get autographs went right past it. Something I did leave out of the MKFC report was the spotty cell coverage; the indoor coverage from AT&T ranged from the Edge network to no data coverage at all, which isn’t good when trying to upload 600K-sized pics.

Eventually, my number group got called, so I got into line. I ran into somebody who drove in from Iowa and also got in a bit too late to get a ticket. He heard from one of the Farm and Fleet employees that even though Matt and Ross were a bit late in getting in, they would try to stay a bit later after all 400 ticket-holders were taken care of to sign some more autographs.

I got all the way in and handed my hat, which I picked up at the Miller Lite Nationals this year to ward off the rain, to Roy. He found the one part that isn’t black and signed it. He then passed it to Ross, who found a silver Sharpie and put his signature on it. Meanwhile, I handed my 2007 Carhartt race-won diecast to Matt to sign. Ross, forgetting that there was a one-item-per-driver limit, handed my hat to Matt, and he also signed that.

I briefly talked to Matt about what might have been had he had more cars like the Charlotte one a couple months earlier, and he’s looking forward to getting a win or two out of the rest of the season. I had to head to a meeting to which I was already rather late, so I don’t know whether the gentleman from Iowa who got in a bit late was able to get something signed. Before I left, however, I decided to give DeWalt one last plug with the signed souvenirs since Farm and Fleet was so kind to have a DeWalt display.

Again, click on the pic for the standard Flickr range of sizes.