No Runny Eggs

The repository of one hard-boiled egg from the south suburbs of Milwaukee, Wisconsin (and the occassional guest-blogger). The ramblings within may or may not offend, shock and awe you, but they are what I (or my guest-bloggers) think.

Archive for December 3rd, 2010

Who had the Milwaukee Problem?

by @ 19:42. Filed under Politics - Wisconsin.

Some outstate pundits infamously claimed right after the primary that Scott Walker was a historically-weak candidate outstate. Now that the election has been certified by the Government Accountability Board, and the county-level results are official, let’s take another look at the tape.

Statewide, Walker took 52.25% of the 2,160,832 votes cast, while Tom Barrett took 46.48% (or a 5.77-percentage-point win). After taking Columbia County and all the counties south and east of there (Dane, Dodge, Jefferson, Kenosha, Milwaukee, Ozaukee, Racine, Rock, Walworth, Waukesha and Washington Counties) out of the totals, Walker’s margin among the 1,015,729 voters increased to a 55.14%-43.17% advantage (or a 11.97-point win). Even if one excludes Fond du Lac and Sheboygan Counties, which are at best marginally-attached to southeast Wisconsin, Walker’s outstate margin is still 54.36%-43.89% (or a 10.47-point win).

Only if one gave Barrett the Democrat strongholds of Dane and Rock County (and Walker the bare win in Columbia County) does the margin get close. Without Sheboygan and Fond du Lac Counties counted as “southeast Wisconsin”, Walker won by 2.87 percentage points. Counting Sheboygan and Fond du Lac Counties to include the entirety of the Milwaukee media market reduced the Walker win to 1.10 percentage points.

Let’s compare that to Mark Green’s performance in 2006 against Jim Doyle, who is from supposedly-equally-reviled Madison. Doyle carried the state by 7.39 percentage points, the counties except Columbia and those south and east by 5.28 points, the parts of Wisconsin outside the “core” southeast part of the state by 12.05 points, and the parts of Wisconsin outside the entire Milwaukee media market by 13.60 points.

It looks like not only didn’t Scott Walker have the “Milwaukee Problem” Tom Barrett did, but he significantly outperformed Mark Green outstate.

Was Chad Lee a “bad” candidate? – revisited

by @ 18:26. Filed under Elections, Politics - Wisconsin.

Right after the November election, UW student Todd Stevens asserted so, and I retorted using the AP’s countywide numbers. On Wednesday, the Government Accountability Board certified the results and, more-importantly, released the ward-by-ward data. For those who don’t remember, the 2nd Congressional District, which incumbent Democrat Tammy Baldwin defeated Chad Lee by a 61.77%-38.16% margin (with the remainder writing in somebody), covers all of Columbia, Dane and Green Counties, significant parts of Jefferson, Rock and Sauk Counties, and almost the entirety of the part of Whitewater that is in Walworth County.

Meanwhile, Republican Scott Walker (and his running mate as lieutenant governor, Rebecca Kleefisch) beat Democrat Tom Barrett (and his running mate, Tom Nelson) by a statewide 52.25%-46.48% margin, with the remainder either voting for a couple other candidates who qualified for the ballot or writing somebody in. With that background, let’s take a county-by-partial-county look at how Walker did versus how Lee did:

  • Columbia County (whole county, 21,385 votes in the gubernatorial election and 21,149 votes in the Congressional election) – Walker 51.71%/Barrett 46.83%, Lee 52.93%/Baldwin 47.01%. Advantage – Lee by 1.03 percentage points.
  • Dane County (whole county, 220,273 votes in the gubernatorial election and 218,865 votes in the Congressional election) – Barrett 67.96%/Walker 30.98%, Baldwin 66.56%/Lee 33.38%. Advantage – Lee by 3.80 percentage points.
  • Green County (whole county, 13,187 votes in the gubernatorial election and 13,227 votes in the Congressional election) – Barrett 49.00%/Walker 48.46%, Baldwin 51.03%/Lee 48.92%. Advantage – Walker by 0.78 percentage points.
  • Jefferson County (just the portion in the 2nd Congressional District, 18,194 votes in the gubernatorial election, 18,005 votes in the Congressional election) – Walker 54.45%/Barrett 43.98%, Lee 52.24%/Baldwin 47.66%. Advantage – Walker by 5.90 percentage points.
  • Rock County (just the portion in the 2nd Congressional District, 23,657 votes in the gubernatorial election, 23,606 votes in the Congressional election) – Barrett 53.07%/Walker 45.01%, Baldwin 53.18%/Lee 46.79%. Advantage – Lee by 1.68 percentage points.
  • Sauk County (just the portion in the 2nd Congressional District, 11,228 votes in the gubernatorial election, 11,262 votes in the Congressional election) – Barrett 51.41%/Walker 47.13%, Baldwin 51.52%/Lee 48.42%. Advantage – Lee by 1.18 percentage points.
  • Walworth County (city of Whitewater specifically, 3,377 votes in the gubernatorial election, 3,346 votes in the Congressional election) – Barrett 52.09%/Walker 46.14%, Baldwin 55.77%/Lee 44.11%. Advantage – Walker by 5.70 percentage points.

The bottom line:

Out of 311,301 total votes in the gubernatorial election, Barrett beat Walker by a 62.44%-36.33% margin. Meanwhile, out of 309,460 total votes in the Congressional election, Baldwin beat Lee by a 61.77%-38.16% margin. By my math, Lee did better than Walker by 2.50 percentage points, and I don’t hear anybody (other than the sore losers on the far left) calling Walker a “bad” candidate. I’m sorry to have to break the bad news to Stevens that the 2nd District will elect a Democrat as long as the district has roughly its current borders.

Landmines abound in the parting gift to AFSCME from Doyle

by @ 9:20. Filed under Politics - Wisconsin.

The MacIver Institute obtained several documents relating to the contract being negotiated by the soon-to-be-departed Doyle administration and AFSCME, which the soon-to-be-departed Democrat leaders in the Legislature want to vote on as they head out the door. The three documents released thus far, language adjustments, overtime changes, and health insurance changes, show that it is more of a extended middle finger than the “no-increase” portrayal by Doyle and the media. I’ll let the MacIver Institute summarize the effects of what’s been released thus far:

A first-blush, cursory look at these documents reveal a few things:

1) These employees maintain their lavish retirement and health benefits with only a modest increase in their share of health care costs.

2) Much of the language here appears to empower employees with greater authority regarding staffing decisions, transfers, etc. Tying the hands of the employer to determine who works where is never beneficial to the employer. As a Wisconsin taxpayer, remember, YOU are the employer.

3) Anticipating cuts and the most senior employees transferring to lower paying jobs to avoid job losses, there is a sick leave conversion that could be costly. Rather than allowing employees to convert their sick leave credits based on their hourly wage at the time of retirement, the conversion will be based on the highest base pay rate earned in state service. So if someone retires at a wage less than what they made years ago, their accrued sick leave will be converted at their highest base pay.

4) The overall costs regarding changes in transfer and layoff procedures in all these contracts is not known. This could limit the cost savings of trimming the state workforce. We hope the Joint Committee on Employment Relations will obtain answers to these questions before voting to approve the tentative agreements.

Roll bloat – taking off the muzzle

by @ 8:31. Filed under The Blog.

A friend of the blog, Justin Higgins, has made his return to blogging with No Muzzle Politics. How good is this prodigy? Back in his teens, he was being cited by Rush Limbaugh. In fact, his only fault is that he’s attending Ohio State (well, he is a native Ohioan).

Now, go and put his blog in your reader.

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