I shared with you a week ago that Barbara Ma’am Boxer’s success was likely tied to the success of Proposition 19, the pot legalization referendum. In what will likely be the last poll on the Proposition, The Field Poll shows mixed results for California.
Indeed, Proposition 19 now looks like it will go down in defeat. At least via a referendum, there will be no pot legalization in California. I’m sure that will be a relief to President Obama who could have been caught between popular support for weed and his ego crying “I’m the law here!” Unfortunately, it doesn’t look like Proposition 19 is going to go down by a wide enough margin to benefit America as a whole.
The most recent polling on the Boxer/Fiorina race was done by Rasmussen. The poll showed Boxer with a 3 point lead but still within the margin of error. The most recent Rasmussen poll shows little change from a poll by Rasmussen a week prior and from SurveyUSA about 10 days ago. Both of these earlier polls also had Boxer in low, single digit leads.
In looking at the partisan splits, I see the same questions and issues regarding the California polls that have been raised elsewhere; will the turn outs look like previous elections or will it look like something different?
in 2008, the California partisan split was 30% Republican, 42% Democrat and 28% Independent. The Field Poll split supposed a turnout of R, D, I as 39%, 44% and 17% respectively. Finally, the SurveyUSA poll show the split as 34%, 42% 21%.
Given the “historical” nature of the 2008 election (I kid you not, I heard an African American describe the reason for his Obama vote that way on Hannity the other night), it would seem like a larger Dem turnout this year would be unlikely. Of course, the pot proponents will argue that the turnout is due to the referendum. However, I find it hard to believe that the pot referendum would pull a greater percentage of Dems than the Gay Marriage referendum combined with “historical” voting opportunities.
If I had to guess, and this is only a gut, I believe that both Field Poll and Survey USA have Dems over represented in their polls, that’s the good news. The bad news is that even if I adjust the Dems back to the party split of 41% of the 2006 race, the Senate race does not tip toward Fiorina.
It looks to me like the only way for Fiorina to win is if the Republicans and Independents out GOTV the Dems. How will we know? The Dems, and especially the young Dems, are strongly tied to support of the Pot Proposition. If you see reports on election night that Proposition 19 is going down by at least 10% it means the potheads haven’t turned out or that those opposed to the referendum have overwhelmed those who support the referendum. In either event, 10% will be the smoke signal to indicate whether Ma’am Boxer will return for another session or whether California will join the rest of the Union and send President Obama a rebuke “from sea to shining sea!”