I’ve been waiting for this moment for several weeks.
Real Clear Politics keeps tabs on polls of races across the country. they accumulate the poll results and publish average results for each of the races. The “average” results help to keep either party from hanging hope on one or two outlier polls, avoiding reality. Upon completing the averages for individual polls, RCP puts races into one of seven categories ranging from safe Democrat to safe Republican. They also have some number of races that are within the margin of error and thus listed as “toss ups”.
For the past several weeks RCP has shown enough races in the Democrat categories that when added to the toss ups, there was a number that still had the potential to outweigh the anticipated Republican seats. However, with this morning’s updates, that is no longer the case.
As of this morning, RCP now has 178 seats in the Democrat category, 220 in the Republican category and 37 in toss ups. As of this morning, according to RCP, there is no way, even if they win all of the toss ups, that the Democrats can retain the House. This is all VERY good news for Republicans!
As if the above wasn’t bad enough, RCP has even worse news for Democrats. In the past 7 days, RCP has changed the category of 27 House races. Of those races, all but 2 have moved the direction of Republicans! Also in those 27 races are 4 races that have been moved from Likely to just Leans Democrat. Included in this last number is MN8 which is the district of Jim Oberstar a life long fixture of the House and a poster child for all a requirement for term limits.
As recent as yesterday, Democrat leadership had continued to spout irrational nonsense about Nancy Pelosi being speaker again next year. To any thinking individual, these statements have been obviously wrong for some time and make the speaker appear ignorant or of the belief that the listener is. Nancy Pelosi herself has been telling people that she would retain the House although recently, she had been building a stepping off point by intimating that she wouldn’t run for Speaker again even if the Dems retained the House.
With today’s news, we are happily saving Pelosi from the angst of deciding whether to run again or not. As of this morning, we can all say to Nancy Pelosi:
“You are the weakest link. Goodbye!”