And I mean that in a stinky way. Jim Geraghty did the the math on Pew’s latest poll (which has Obama up 53%-38% among likely voters), and found that Pew’s bias is 38.83% Democrat, 32.57% independent, and 28.61% Republican. Jim also notes that Pew’s spread was only off by one percentage point in their end-of-the-race 2006 poll bias (they had it at +4 D, it was +3 D).
Given that Gallup’s tracking polls have Obama up by 2 with the traditional model and 7 with the “expanded” one, something is seriously hosed.
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Not to mention IBD’s daily tracker, today at a spread of 1.8%.
There was a post at Redstate talking about the polls. http://www.redstate.com/diaries/dan_perrin/2008/oct/28/the-seven-reasons-mccain-palin-are-a-lock-to/ One point that was made that makes sense, is that Hillary was supposed to be toast in NH. The polling, among only Dems, said Hill was toast, yet she won. The point was that the Hill folks were undetectable in that poll. I still say I don’t believe that the PUMAs have completely gone away. I can’t say how big they are but I’m betting there is a much bigger group of folks telling pollsters “obama” on the phone but will check “mcCain” on Tuesday.