No Runny Eggs

The repository of one hard-boiled egg from the south suburbs of Milwaukee, Wisconsin (and the occassional guest-blogger). The ramblings within may or may not offend, shock and awe you, but they are what I (or my guest-bloggers) think.

Archive for October 24th, 2008

ObamiNation In Your Face Violence Tour – pollster edition

by @ 15:41. Filed under Politics - National.

Jim Geraghty reports that Strategic Vision is getting death threats for daring to report that the McCain/Palin ticket has pulled ahead of the Obama/Biden ticket in Florida and Ohio (48%-46% and 48%-45% respectively).

Let’s take a look at the three messages that David Johnson, CEO of Strategic Vision, shared with National Review Online:

My goodness, your polls stinks. There are 3 polls that have Obama by double digits and only yours has Obama down. WOW!. How come your poll is the only one giving Palin high favor ratings? I think you nee dto be careful tonight when you get in your car and might want to check underneath your car. SCRAP YOUR IDIOTIC POLLS OR ELSE!

A poll that gave Sarah Palin and Barack Obama the same favorability rating is wrong off the bat. Be careful going outside tonight because you might not see tomorrow.

Why would your presidential election poll results be so drastically different from every other reputable poll taken over the same time period? Are they that dumb or are you guys that smart? Smart guys wind up dead.

Notes Johnson, “It’s probably just a bunch of nut cases, but this is first time we’ve ever experienced something like this. It’s highly, highly unusual. We get messages in the vein of ‘your numbers are wrong, the other guy’s numbers are right’ all the time. But this has never happened before.”

George Orwell was only 24 years off.

Hmmmmmmmmm

by @ 5:50. Filed under Politics - National.

Investors Business Daily is now putting out a daily tracking poll of the Presidential race.   They were the most accurate poll of the 2004 race.   As of today, IBD has McCain down just 1.1 points.   The poll has McCain having closed from a 7 point deficit just since last weekend.   As interesting as that gap close is, I’m more interested in another stat.

I thought the MSM has been telling us about all of the excited, first time to vote college students.   People  who were part of the millions that were newly registered Democrats.   People  that were already standing outside of polling places to make sure they would get a chance to vote for “The One.”   Isn’t that what the great wildcard is for Barack; whether the youth, who have never come out in droves before, will turn off their Wiis, put down their beers and vote?    

If the youth are the great hope for Barack, can someone explain how the IBD poll shows 18-24 year olds breaking for John McCain 74% to 22% for Barack Obama?

Watch the next 10 days folks.   The MSM story lines don’t seem to always be aligned with the poll internals.   There is something that just isn’t smelling right across most of these polls.   It could be a wild 10 days.

Hmmmmmmmm II

by @ 5:14. Filed under Economy.

Two members of the research department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis have looked at some of the key claims of a need for the big bail out bill.   You can read their full report here. The four claims were:

1. Bank lending to nonfinancial corporations and individuals has declined sharply.
2. Interbank lending is essentially nonexistent.
3. Commercial paper issuance by nonfinancial corporations has declined sharply, and
rates have risen to unprecedented levels.
4. Banks play a large role in channeling funds from savers to borrowers.

After reviewing numerous data points, the researchers concluded:

Our analysis has raised questions about the claims made for the mechanism whereby
the financial crisis is affecting the overall economy. We emphasize that we do not dispute that
the United States is undergoing a financial crisis and that the United States economy may
be in a recession or may experience one in the near future. Our analysis is based on publicly
available data. Policymakers have access to other sources of data as well. Policymakers could
well believe that bold action is necessary based on data that are di ¤erent from that considered
here. If so, responsible policymaking requires that they share both the data and the analysis
that underlies the need for bold policy with the public.

In layman’s language: The 4 claims don’t seem to be validated by the data generally available to the public.

There was a lot of debate at least amongst conservatives, about whether the bailout was necessary. To hear that the claims that were made for the bailout weren’t so doesn’t restore any confidence that the folks in Washington have a real handle on what’s going on and how to fix it. I suppose Paulson could have had access to information that painted a more convincing picture for him but given that they still haven’t really implemented much of their $700 Billion plan, it would seem hard to argue that their plan actually averted an anticipated.

On the final vote, I came to oppose the bailout. I thought something should be done but I concluded that with all the pork and other nonsense that had gotten attached, no one was really serious about their concern and I have no stomach for more debt.

I’m now thinking that as we look back, after the dust settles, we’ll find that aside from the dramatic increase in the money supply, most of the other extraordinary efforts may well prove to have been nothing more than attempts by various Washington cartels to make it look like they were doing something or taking advantage of the situation and attempting to gain or consolidate their own power.

Maybe, just maybe, at the end of this we find that good old Capitalism is a lot smarter and more resilient than any of us would ever have believed. We may find that doing nothing is the best thing we could do.

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