No Runny Eggs

The repository of one hard-boiled egg from the south suburbs of Milwaukee, Wisconsin (and the occassional guest-blogger). The ramblings within may or may not offend, shock and awe you, but they are what I (or my guest-bloggers) think.

Archive for March 23rd, 2008

Which #1 will drop out first?

by @ 20:23. Filed under NRE Polls, Sports.

It’s time for the Second Annual Who Will Drop First poll. Last year, nobody took the “winner”, Kansas. They’re back for more, along with UCLA, Memphis and overall #1 North Carolina.

I’ll even give you a bit of help with the schedule because seconds do count. North Carolina goes against #4 Washington State Thursday at 6:27 pm, UCLA goes against #12 Western Kentucky Thursday at about 8:40 pm, Kansas goes against #12 Villanova Friday at about 8:40 pm, and Memphis goes against #5 Michigan State Friday at about 8:57 pm. If all 4 make it to the Elite Eight, North Carolina and UCLA would go Saturday at times to be determined (not against each other), and Kansas and Memphis will go Sunday at times to be determined (also not against each other). If I remember, I’ll close the poll while the games involving the #1s are played; if not, I’ll toss out all answers cast during those games.

Now, vote.

Which #1 will drop out first? (open until Saturday)

Up to 1 answer(s) was/were allowed

  • Kansas (hint; they play North Carolina in the nightcap) (33%, 5 Vote(s))
  • Memphis (hint; they play UCLA first on Saturday) (33%, 5 Vote(s))
  • UCLA (hint; they play Memphis first on Saturday) (27%, 4 Vote(s))
  • North Carolina (hint; they play Kansas in the nightcap) (7%, 1 Vote(s))

Total Voters: 15

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Mumblin’ bumblin’ stumblin’ into the Sweet 16

by @ 19:46. Filed under Sports.

Today was Cinderella Sunday, as not one, not two, but three Cinderellas won. Of course, the fact that two Cindys would win was guaranteed because there were two 12-v-13 matchups. Still, Davidson had its biggest game of its history in knocking off Georgetown. The bad news for them is they get Bucky on Friday, known around The Bar as the Terminators.

Despite there being three lower-bracket teams in the Sweet 16, we only had three “upsets” in the second round, and one of those can’t really be called an upset because it was a #5 knocking off a #4. It was a rough weekend for the #2s, as a pair of them got rejected and the other two got the stuffing scared out of them.

For those keeping track of conferences at home, the Big East and the Pac-10 each have 3 teams, the “down-year” Big Ten and the Big 12 each have 2 teams, and the “all-mighty” ACC, the “almost-all-mighty” SEC, the “used-to-be-mighty” Atlantic 10, the “stripped-bare” Conference USA, and the mid-major twins (Southern, Sun Belt) each have 1 team.

Incredibly, despite going only 21-11 in the first round and 10-6 in the second (including three games that were dead to the bracket), I’m set to do some serious damage in the later rounds as I’ve only lost two of my Elite Eight and my Final Four is still intact. I don’t remember a year when I could say that after the second round.

In case you haven’t noticed, I am a moron

by @ 13:37. Filed under The Blog.

That’s right, kids, I’m a regular at Ace of Spades HQ.

Conservative Belle ran with this graphic…

moronblogger.png

…from doubleplusundead (actually done by S. Weasel) and put together a Moronblogger blogroll. I’ve wedged it on the left side (no sense making you do an unbelievable amount of scrolling).

A lot of them should look familiar; after all, we are legion.

Revisions/extensions (6:18 pm 3/24/2008) – I should’ve recognized S. Weasel’s work. Mea culpa maxima.

And she wants to be your next Milwaukee County Executive?

by @ 12:46. Filed under Politics - Milwaukee County.

(H/Ts – Owen and Patrick)

Our friends in the Scott Walker campaign remembered to bring their cameras to one of the debates, where they caught this gem from his challenger, state Senator Lena Taylor (D-Milwaukee)…

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iHqIFT4HtQ8[/youtube]

Mouth, meet foot. Foot, meet larynx.

Kaboom, baby!

by @ 9:51. Filed under Sports.

I need to stay positive after a Day 3 that saw another Elite Eight drop and me go 5-3 (including the dead game that didn’t see Kansas choke). Let’s see…

– Wisconsin won.
– My Final Four is intact.
– I’m above .500.
– In both pools (the WSB and AoSHQ), if Wisconsin takes it all, I should win.

Of course, there are the negatives…

– I’ve lost 5 of my Sweet Sixteen teams (with a pair of dead games today) and 2 of my Elite Eight.
– The first round was an unmitigated disaster, which put me well behind the curve.

Somebody, remind me to put up the “Which #1 drops first?” poll if North Carolina and Memphis both make it into the Sweetness.

The Nader Factor

by @ 7:00. Filed under Politics - National.

On February 24th, Ralph Nader announced his Presidential Candidacy.   I didn’t post it here but I made comments on other sites saying that this was going to be a positive for the Republicans.   I made the argument that the ideologicals of the left were likely going to look for an alternative when their particular candidate (either  Hillary or Barack)  ultimately was flamed.   I was heartily pooh poohed at the time being told that the 2000 impact of Nader was a once in a lifetime event and that he wouldn’t amount to more than a raindrop in the ocean in 2008.

Zogby International released a poll on 3/15 that has not received any airtime on a rather interesting item.   In that poll, where they find McCain beating either Clinton or Obama, they have Nader receiving 5% – 6% of the vote.   I guess folks were right when they said 2004 was a one time event, Nader only received 2.7% of the vote in that election!

5%, not much you say?   Generally you’d be correct if we elected President’s on a purely popular vote but we elect them essentially,  state by state.    A quick peak under the historical numbers show some pretty interesting possibilities.  

The following chart shows the states in 2004 that  John Kerry won with less than a 5% margin and Nader’s percent of vote in those same states from the 2000 election:

State

2004 Winning Margin 2000 Nader %
Michigan 3.4% 2.0%
Minnesota 3.5% 5.2%
New Hampshire 1.4% 3.9%
Oregon 4.2% 5.1%
Pennsylvania 2.5% 2.1%
Wisconsin .4% 3.6%

Assuming Nader could do again as well as 2000 and that he pulls predominantly from Democrats, this could mean that Minnesota, New Hampshire, Wisconsin and maybe even Oregon come into play.   Some of this is starting show as Rasmussen has released polls showing that McCain has pulled within the margin of error in both Minnesota and Wisconsin.

Take one more twist and assume that Nader did in fact nearly double is vote percentage from 2000 and that it was distributed across the states in the same way that it was in 2000.   Those numbers would look like this:

State

2004 Winning Margin Adjusted, 2000 Nader %
Hawaii 8.7% 10.9%
Maine 9.0% 10.6%
Michigan 3.4% 3.7%
Minnesota 3.5% 9.7%
New Hampshire 1.4% 7.3%
Oregon 4.2% 9.4%
Pennsylvania 2.5% 3.9%
Washington 7.2% 7.7%
Wisconsin .4% 6.7%

 This would now have the potential to put 7 states in play.

OK, we don’t know how this is going to play out.   However, I’m willing to bet that the longer Obama and Clinton beat on each other, the more likely it will be that those who are on the losing side will want to find an alternative way to express themselves This should be  especially true if this is decided at the convention and there is little time to adjust. (Hey all you we “I’ll never vote for McCain” folks, remember how that feels?)

OK, it’s early yet and we don’t know how this will play out.   My point is now, as it was when he entered the race, Nader will impact this race and it will be a negative for the Democrats.

If you’re still not convinced consider this; it was likely Ralph Nader who caused George Bush to win the 2000 election. Florida was decided by approximately 540 votes.   Nader received 97,488 votes .   Who do you think those votes would have gone to?   Do you still think Nader can’t impact the 2008 election?

He Is Risen

by @ 6:00. Filed under Miscellaneous.

Luke 24:1-12 (NIV):

On the first day of the week, very early in the morning, the women took the spices they had prepared and went to the tomb. They found the stone rolled away from the tomb, but when they entered, they did not find the body of the Lord Jesus. While they were wondering about this, suddenly two men in clothes that gleamed like lightning stood beside them. In their fright the women bowed down with their faces to the ground, but the men said to them, “Why do you look for the living among the dead? He is not here; he has risen!” Remember how he told you, while he was still with you in Galilee: ‘The Son of Man must be delivered into the hands of sinful men, be crucified and on the third day be raised again.'” Then they remembered his words.

When they came back from the tomb, they told all these things to the Eleven and all the others. It was Mary Magdalene, Joanna, Mary the mother of James, and the others with them who told this to the apostles. But they did not believe the women, because their words seemed to them like nonsense. Peter, however, got up and ran to the tomb. Bending over, he saw the strips of linen lying by themselves, and he went away, wondering to himself what had happened.

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