I think my knuckles and knees have healed enough after the January from Hell, so I’ll go out on a limb. As I put up on Hot Air’s prediction thread, I see things shaking out as such:
1st Congressional (far southeast Wisconsin):
Dems – Obama 51%, Clinton 48% (each gets 3 delegates)
Pubs – McCain 54%, Huckabee 44% (McCain gets 3 delegates)
2nd Congressional (Madison and surrounding areas):
Dems – Clinton 50%, Obama 50% (each gets 4 delegates)
Pubs – McCain 52%, Huckabee 42% (McCain gets 3 delegates)
3rd Congressional (southwest Wisconsin):
Dems – Clinton 51%, Obama 48% (each gets 3 delegates)
Pubs – McCain 50%, Huckabee 47% (McCain gets 3 delegates)
4th Congressional (city of Milwaukee and selected high-union suburbs):
Dems – Obama 74%, Clinton 22% (Obama gets 5 delegates, Clinton gets 1)
Pubs – McCain 53%, Huckabee 43% (McCain gets 3 delegates)
5th Congressional (north and northwest suburbs of Milwaukee; includes 2 of the most-Republican counties in the country):
Dems – Clinton 52%, Obama 47% (Clinton gets 3 delegates, Obama 2)
Pubs – McCain 56%, Huckabee 42% (McCain gets 3 delegates)
6th Congressional (east-central Wisconsin):
Dems – Clinton 56%, Obama 42% (Clinton gets 3 delegates, Obama 2)
Pubs – McCain 52%, Huckabee 46% (McCain gets 3 delegates)
7th Congressional (northwest Wisconsin):
Dems – Obama 50%, Clinton 49% (each get 3 delegates)
Pubs – McCain 49%, Huckabee 40%, Paul 10% (only district Paul gets anywhere near double-digits, McCain gets 3 delegates)
8th Congressional (northeast Wisconsin):
Dems – Obama 51%, Clinton 49% (each get 3 delegates)
Pubs – McCain 52%, Huckabee 46% (McCain gets 3 delegates)
Statewide:
Dems – Obama 52%, Clinton 46% (Obama gets 14 at-large delegates to get 39 total, Clinton gets 12 at-large delegates to get 35 total)
Pubs – McCain 53%, Huckabee 43%, Paul 4% (McCain gets 16 at-large delegates to get all 40 total)
Loading ...
I have to say I disagree with this one….
5th Congressional (north and northwest suburbs of Milwaukee; includes 2 of the most-Republican counties in the country):
Dems – Clinton 52%, Obama 47% (Clinton gets 3 delegates, Obama 2)
I think you’ll be surprised……
I know Brown Deer (and Mequon) are in the 5th; however, so are northern Waukesha and all of Washington Counties. Which direction do you see the district flipping?
[...] Steveegg offers numerical predictions. He puts himself out on a limb while I offer maps. In the end we both [...]