In part 1, I predicted that Fred Thompson will take the Republican nomination. In part 2, I predicted that Hillary Clinton will take the Democratic nomination. Now, I really go out on a limb to finish answering Dad29′s question.
First things first, it’s not going to matter much at all to the Democrats who their VP running mate is. They’ll have the gender gap maximized by Clinton, nothing the Pubbies do will reduce the racial gap, and there are no moderates left in the party of the donkey. On the Pubbie side, it’s another story. They will not be able to resist the pressure to put a moderate-to-liberal at the bottom end of the ticket, and who the Dems put at the bottom half of their ticket will influence which moderate-to-liberal goes there. If it’s Barak Obama, they will try like hell to get Colin Powell there. If not, or if Powell refuses, it will be Rudy Giuliani, as John McCain cannot abide being second fiddle, and in the end he is not as liberal as Giuliani.
By choosing Giuliani (or Powell), the Pubbies will also avoid having McCain run an insurgency independent campaign, which would hand the Presidency to Clinton. They would have taken away the only constituency that would have possibly stuck with McCain, the country-club Pubbies.
If you thought the 2000 and 2004 campaigns were nasty, you haven’t seen anything yet. The charges and countercharges will come hourly, and there will be no media outlet, be it “old” or “new”, “mainstream” or “alternative”, that will even pretend to be impartial. Now, where did I put that coin?